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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF
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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I really hope they go all in and make the FV3 based short range ensemble package a worthwhile tool because the idea is really good they just totally failed in the execution with the SREF and the HRRR.  

I was under the impression that the SREF and the HRRR were primarily intended for forecasting warm-season sever weather.  Maybe they are more useful there.

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3 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

We love the NAM now

 

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0.2 in Westminster and 12” in Baltimore city, seems legit. I can’t imagine it goes down like that but man will it be crazy if it does. Gradient will likely be a bit more smoothed out than that but still, this could be one of the crazier gradients we’ve seen

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The NAM can sometimes score a coup.  I can remember a few times it was the ONLY model showing something and that happened.  The problem is it's so inconsistent and unreliable and goes off on tangents with feedback issues and problems with chasing exponential errors...that you have no idea when its on to something or just being the NAM.  On the whole it probably just adds more confusion and stress even if once in a while its right.  

At one time it seemed like the NAM was especially good at sniffing out warm noses at the midlevels that would so often crush dreams for us SE weenies.  Not sure if that is still true or not.

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6 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

It's going to be an absolute nailbiter for me in Germantown lol. I'm on that edge that can either get 3" or 8".

better than frederick...which appears to be on the edge of virga or 1".  i wouldn't be surprised if a secondary, elevation enhanced band forms somewhere from frederick to germantown and onto the ene.  that's what i'm banking on.  if not, so be it.

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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

0.2 in Westminster and 12” in Baltimore city, seems legit. I can’t imagine it goes down like that but man will it be crazy if it does. Gradient will likely be a bit more smoothed out than that but still, this could be one of the crazier gradients we’ve seen

Not sure I've ever seen a gradient quite that Sharp. Frederick is basically nothing.  Head down 270  about 15 mile and your pushing double digits. Just crazy

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

well yea and that is what the probabilities tell you without having to waste your time looking at the members or the individual outputs or the mean that is skewed by the crazy ridiculously high members.  

But looking at just the BWI plume, for example, there are a few that are basically no snow, a couple with decent snow, and then pretty much 80 percent of them are below the mean, which is about a foot. So I'm not sure it's really being that skewed by the crazy high members when almost all members are pretty crazy high.

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Not sure I've ever seen a gradient quite that Sharp. Frederick is basically nothing.  Head down 270  about 15 mile and your pushing double digits. Just crazy

It is pretty nuts...I don't think I have ever been right on the line of such a sharp gradient.  I could honestly see getting 1-3" or not a single flake imby.

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