caviman2201 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Holy epic NAM'ing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 It is kind of funny if you look at the NAM to see DC and Baltimore crushed but Philly on a fringe, NYC on a fringe, and Boston on the fringe. This one is yours. Enjoy!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I really hope they go all in and make the FV3 based short range ensemble package a worthwhile tool because the idea is really good they just totally failed in the execution with the SREF and the HRRR. I was under the impression that the SREF and the HRRR were primarily intended for forecasting warm-season sever weather. Maybe they are more useful there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: We love the NAM now 0.2 in Westminster and 12” in Baltimore city, seems legit. I can’t imagine it goes down like that but man will it be crazy if it does. Gradient will likely be a bit more smoothed out than that but still, this could be one of the crazier gradients we’ve seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: It's going to be an absolute nailbiter for me in Germantown lol. I'm on that edge that can either get 3" or 8". Better than being in the .1" zone with 10"+ 15 miles away lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 21Z SREF Please God. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: We love the NAM now If only we could get Randy Newman to sing that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The NAM can sometimes score a coup. I can remember a few times it was the ONLY model showing something and that happened. The problem is it's so inconsistent and unreliable and goes off on tangents with feedback issues and problems with chasing exponential errors...that you have no idea when its on to something or just being the NAM. On the whole it probably just adds more confusion and stress even if once in a while its right. At one time it seemed like the NAM was especially good at sniffing out warm noses at the midlevels that would so often crush dreams for us SE weenies. Not sure if that is still true or not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 He's got nothing on Sue PolkaI married my wife because she tolerates my infatuation for Sue. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Post plenty of pictures tomorrow! GN! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: It's going to be an absolute nailbiter for me in Germantown lol. I'm on that edge that can either get 3" or 8". better than frederick...which appears to be on the edge of virga or 1". i wouldn't be surprised if a secondary, elevation enhanced band forms somewhere from frederick to germantown and onto the ene. that's what i'm banking on. if not, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3k also shows slight bump NW, but it was farther NW than 12k last run, so that checks out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Haven't seen the 'P' word used yet ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 3km NAM wastes about 0.3" qpf on the front end in DC and still manages to dump ~10" Starts as rain then gradual shift to a mix/sleet before going to all snow by 8a. Given current temps, I wouldn’t be surprised we have a few hours of rain/mix before its all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: We love the NAM now Not all of us 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said: 3k also shows slight bump NW, but it was farther NW than 12k last run, so that checks out. 8 inch difference between JYO and IAD is pretty rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1z HRRR coming in more NW again. Trend is really clear to make this stronger and the high is getting weaker run by run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Starts as rain then gradual shift to a mix/sleet before going to all snow by 8a. Given current temps, I wouldn’t be surprised we have a few hours of rain/mix before its all snow. o/u mby 5.5" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: 0.2 in Westminster and 12” in Baltimore city, seems legit. I can’t imagine it goes down like that but man will it be crazy if it does. Gradient will likely be a bit more smoothed out than that but still, this could be one of the crazier gradients we’ve seen Not sure I've ever seen a gradient quite that Sharp. Frederick is basically nothing. Head down 270 about 15 mile and your pushing double digits. Just crazy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: well yea and that is what the probabilities tell you without having to waste your time looking at the members or the individual outputs or the mean that is skewed by the crazy ridiculously high members. But looking at just the BWI plume, for example, there are a few that are basically no snow, a couple with decent snow, and then pretty much 80 percent of them are below the mean, which is about a foot. So I'm not sure it's really being that skewed by the crazy high members when almost all members are pretty crazy high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Deck Pic said: o/u mby 5.5" Good number. I've been thinking 6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Deck Pic said: o/u mby 5.5" You? Over Me? Under water 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: 1z HRRR coming in more NW again. Trend is really clear to make this stronger and the high is getting weaker run by run At least through about 8 hours it is noticeably se of its last run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: o/u mby 5.5" Good number. But I’d take the odds of going over that - this “feels” like a boom type scenario. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: At least through about 8 hours it is noticeably se of its last run Slower and much more intense precip shield shrunk the edge slightly on the NW side but cities will get smoked again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendritious Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: NAM is bringing the QPF this run. But that cutoff is insane. Barely 0.1” in northern Loudoun and close to 1.5” in the southern most part of the county. Me in the northern tip of FxCo looking at those cutoff lines 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 52/41 in Fredericksburg, VA. Winds picking up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Not sure I've ever seen a gradient quite that Sharp. Frederick is basically nothing. Head down 270 about 15 mile and your pushing double digits. Just crazy It is pretty nuts...I don't think I have ever been right on the line of such a sharp gradient. I could honestly see getting 1-3" or not a single flake imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 @psuhoffman realizing I replied all to the zoom from earlier. Agreed on that northern cutoff, the temps are just way warmer than we’d expect for this type of gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 49/41 Just NW of Fredericksburg, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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