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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF
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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think the Hrrr and SREFs are both pretty useless. I’ve seen brief times where it seems the Hrrr is providing added value, but it just bounces around too much. 

I really hope they go all in and make the FV3 based short range ensemble package a worthwhile tool because the idea is really good they just totally failed in the execution with the SREF and the HRRR.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

The NAM can sometimes score a coup.  I can remember a few times it was the ONLY model showing something and that happened.  The problem is it's so inconsistent and unreliable and goes off on tangents with feedback issues and problems with chasing exponential errors...that you have no idea when its on to something or just being the NAM.  On the whole it probably just adds more confusion and stress even if once in a while its right.  

Yeah I think one such time was last season! I think it may have been the Miller B (or something else a week earlier). So it could be recency bias...lol

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10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I was looking at general consensus of the members. When they basically all look good I think you can feel good about that

well yea and that is what the probabilities tell you without having to waste your time looking at the members or the individual outputs or the mean that is skewed by the crazy ridiculously high members.  

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Quite a bit of dirty talk in the WPC Heavy Snow Discussion-

The guidance this aftn have continued to trend stronger, a little slower, and more NW with this system. The exception is the NAM, but this model seems to be initializing a bit too far south compared to reality and is not preferred. This trend suggests another uptick in snowfall potential which is reflected in both WSE mean/NBM 50th percentile, as well as the high end potential of the 90th percentiles of these same ensemble clusters. While antecedent conditions are quite warm, and many places may start as rain before changing over, rapid CAA behind the cold front will quickly transition rain to snow in many areas. This CAA will be aided via impressive ascent within a pivoting deformation axis to drive intense dynamic cooling of the column. Although SLRs will vary greatly, starting very low and then increasing with time as the column cools, notable overlap of -EPV* and ThetaE lapse rates near or below 0 suggest CSI or even upright convection (thunder snow) within the best deformation. This could produce snowfall rates of 2+"/hr, which is reflected both by HREF snow probabilities and the WPC snowband prototype tool, with the highest chances across VA, MD, DE, into southern NJ. It is these rates that will help overcome the low-level warmth and hostile antecedent conditions to produce heavy snowfall.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

well yea and that is what the probabilities tell you without having to waste your time looking at the members or the individual outputs or the mean that is skewed by the crazy ridiculously high members.  

That plume viewer is a nice tool. You get to see all outputs in one chart. I really like that.

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