psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think the Hrrr and SREFs are both pretty useless. I’ve seen brief times where it seems the Hrrr is providing added value, but it just bounces around too much. I really hope they go all in and make the FV3 based short range ensemble package a worthwhile tool because the idea is really good they just totally failed in the execution with the SREF and the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 NAM looks good to me. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 NAM is north. 18z had the surface low in SC, 00z has it in NC. If you're south of I-70, you look good for a solid event. Really amazing how this event has appeared out of thin air. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: The NAM can sometimes score a coup. I can remember a few times it was the ONLY model showing something and that happened. The problem is it's so inconsistent and unreliable and goes off on tangents with feedback issues and problems with chasing exponential errors...that you have no idea when its on to something or just being the NAM. On the whole it probably just adds more confusion and stress even if once in a while its right. Yeah I think one such time was last season! I think it may have been the Miller B (or something else a week earlier). So it could be recency bias...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I was looking at general consensus of the members. When they basically all look good I think you can feel good about that well yea and that is what the probabilities tell you without having to waste your time looking at the members or the individual outputs or the mean that is skewed by the crazy ridiculously high members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Quite a bit of dirty talk in the WPC Heavy Snow Discussion- The guidance this aftn have continued to trend stronger, a little slower, and more NW with this system. The exception is the NAM, but this model seems to be initializing a bit too far south compared to reality and is not preferred. This trend suggests another uptick in snowfall potential which is reflected in both WSE mean/NBM 50th percentile, as well as the high end potential of the 90th percentiles of these same ensemble clusters. While antecedent conditions are quite warm, and many places may start as rain before changing over, rapid CAA behind the cold front will quickly transition rain to snow in many areas. This CAA will be aided via impressive ascent within a pivoting deformation axis to drive intense dynamic cooling of the column. Although SLRs will vary greatly, starting very low and then increasing with time as the column cools, notable overlap of -EPV* and ThetaE lapse rates near or below 0 suggest CSI or even upright convection (thunder snow) within the best deformation. This could produce snowfall rates of 2+"/hr, which is reflected both by HREF snow probabilities and the WPC snowband prototype tool, with the highest chances across VA, MD, DE, into southern NJ. It is these rates that will help overcome the low-level warmth and hostile antecedent conditions to produce heavy snowfall. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, H2O said: I hope your palm trees make it I don’t have palm trees. I have cacti 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: well yea and that is what the probabilities tell you without having to waste your time looking at the members or the individual outputs or the mean that is skewed by the crazy ridiculously high members. That plume viewer is a nice tool. You get to see all outputs in one chart. I really like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 45/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 NAM will be the favored model for many in DC after this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 a 3 HOUR panel tomorrow morning. Implies widespread 2" rates 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: I don’t have palm trees. I have cacti Oh hey it's meme-gif guy! *waves* Happy New Year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, rjvanals said: NAM will be the favored model for many in DC after this run That’s like saying Bud Light will become the favored beer of DC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 NAM is bringing the QPF this run. But that cutoff is insane. Barely 0.1” in northern Loudoun and close to 1.5” in the southern most part of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: So, post deck pics tomorrow? Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Hell Ya you take your victory lap when you get a win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3k also looks to be north glad to see the NAM finally catching on. Probably still not done either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, rjvanals said: NAM will be the favored model for many in DC after this run It will be no such thing. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: NAM is bringing the QPF this run. But that cutoff is insane. Barely 0.1” in northern Loudoun and close to 1.5” in the southern most part of the county. This one is really going to hurt...but I am happy for places that have not had much snow at all in years! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 That squall line is a beauty, isn't it? Only a model, but what a fantastic structure. Btw, 3km coming in looks maybe lower pressure. But I know the 3km can sometimes end up over doing that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 We love the NAM now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, rjvanals said: NAM will be the favored model for many in DC after this run NAM still had this thing running off the coast of SC last night IIRC. GFS has nailed it from the beginning. I want to see the 19 inches it has repeatedly shown me I am going to get, so I am hugging it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Baltimore Wilmington Philly still right on the edge. Tough call for a few million people. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Absolutely a crushjob 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: We love the NAM now There's a group of us that aren't a big fan but it's definitely trending better. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Future radar for Gainesville estimates rain starting at 12:15 AM and turns to snow at about 1:00AM. Temp 49; winds 23mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said: There's a group of us that aren't a big fan. It's going to be an absolute nailbiter for me in Germantown lol. I'm on that edge that can either get 3" or 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 This is going to end up being a DC-BAL special it seems. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I’m staying the night at an Airbnb atop of Wintergreen at an elevation over 3,000 feet. My wife didn’t come with me smh. Just gonna be me and snow waffles in the morning. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The 3km NAM wastes about 0.3" qpf on the front end in DC and still manages to dump ~10" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Temperature 49.5°F Dew Point 39.4° From Yesterday -13.3°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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