MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Does anyone other than a weenie use the hrrr for looking at snow forecasts this far out? Maybe at game time for discrete enhancements. I dunno. It can be nice to get the backup from the global models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nukeing Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 44/36.5 dropping very fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 That's certainly an impressive trend on the HRRR but I'd really like to see our prodigal son, the NAM, act the same way in the next hour. Here's the vapor status. Looks neutral or negative to me but my eyes are not those of experts. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Does anyone other than a weenie use the hrrr for looking at snow forecasts this far out? Maybe at game time for discrete enhancements. I dunno. Its not the output... its the trend. Trends matter more than any single run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 49/38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Starting to feel just a bit nervous about that NW trend...its hard enough to stay away from mixing at the beaches as it is. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: Starting to feel just a bit nervous about that NW trend...its hard enough to stay away from mixing at the beaches as it is. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Sorry to inform you the vast majority of this sub hopes the beaches rain... If you're raining, I'm getting my normal pancakes with thundersleet and PSU is getting whiteout meatballs 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Entire storm *HRRR still really trending NW fast so by no means is this probably done 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 That WV image shows the trough is perfectly neutral tilt right over the MS Valley. Look at how the boundary between the dry and moist air (dark and bright) is oriented N/S along the AL/MS border. 10 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 47/38Feels so cold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 50/41 in Fairfax Station. Down 3 degrees on both in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: That WV image shows the trough is perfectly neutral tilt right over the MS Valley. Look at how the boundary between the dry and moist air (dark and bright) is oriented N/S along the AL/MS border. It’s a weenie radar but illustrates your point at the surface. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Does anyone other than a weenie use the hrrr for looking at snow forecasts this far out? Maybe at game time for discrete enhancements. I dunno. I'll take the trend at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Pretty clear trend and it's still snowing in most locations. Only to hour 16 Only issue is HRRR is as dependable as WFT ground game this far out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 48/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, wasnow215 said: Only issue is HRRR is as dependable as WFT ground game this far out. Usually the NAM will follow suite so we will see. SREF huge jump also is a indication 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 43/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Sorry to inform you the vast majority of this sub hopes the beaches rain... If you're raining, I'm getting my normal pancakes with thundersleet and PSU is getting whiteout meatballsWas the rude comment really necessary? I'm as much a part of this subforum as you. I track and root for the same storms as you. This kind of attitude is what drives people away or into lurking.Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Only issue is HRRR is as dependable as WFT ground game this far out. That may be so, but at this range, when everything is still down to the wire, it is a good sign to see that (for those of us on the northern edge). I've seen the opposite, where the HRRR pointed out a red flag that the global models couldn't notice, and then it ended up being right. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, alexderiemer said: Was the rude comment really necessary? I'm as much a part of this subforum as you. I track and root for the same storms as you. This kind of attitude is what drives people away or into lurking. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk I said I was sorry to inform you.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 So the shift in the SREF is really substantial. BWI 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 15z for comparison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 44/33 Berkeley Springs, WV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 SREF mean over last 4 runs @ DCA. The pink line is most recent (21Z). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: So the shift in the SREF is really substantial. BWI Woah. Other thing that is interesting is that, other than a handful of low outputs, almost all of them are above the mean. That would be incredible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 47/39 wind out of the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 41 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: This is the 15Z SREF plume you're talking about, right? 38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can somebody link me to the sref plumes. Tried the link I have but it doesn’t work Someone broke WB, too many people trying to view it...but the probabilities updated and it was a huge increase in the probability of 3" and 6" across Maryland. Gets the 50% probability of 6" up into southern PA now when it was down near Baltimore last run. From the probabilities you can tell it shifted NW quite a bit. But the actual panels didnt update yet when I looked. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The sref shift here was massive. And maybe more importantly the number of bad outcomes went down drastically 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 51/43 (down from 63 shortly before sunset.) La Plata 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: Woah. Other thing that is interesting is that, other than a handful of low outputs, almost all of them are above the mean. That would be incredible. Yep it's a substantial shift and I'd say 80% are over 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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