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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF
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Putting my faith in you guys because my untrained eye when it comes to nowcasting surely will deceive me. 

Looking at the radar in total, how do you think things are looking for an area just barely northeast of Baltimore City? Light/moderate snow event throughout the morning, like 2-3 inches? Just trying to figure out my morning plans. 

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7 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Putting my faith in you guys because my untrained eye when it comes to nowcasting surely will deceive me. 

Looking at the radar in total, how do you think things are looking for an area just barely northeast of Baltimore City? Light/moderate snow event throughout the morning, like 2-3 inches? Just trying to figure out my morning plans. 

Yes, that seems reasonable to me.  I am just below Towson and am not really expecting more than 2 inches based on latest model trends.

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10 minutes ago, gopper said:

Yes, that seems reasonable to me.  I am just below Towson and am not really expecting more than 2 inches based on latest model trends.

Okay thanks. As a snow lover like most of us, will be disappointing to be so close to big amounts BUT I am going to enjoy whatever I can get because anything is better than nothing! Also very happy for the folks in the jackpot zone as everyone knows they've been in the shaft zone way too many times over the years! 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-501-502-506-031600-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220103T2100Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-
256 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations 5 to 10 inches, with
  the heaviest amounts most likely near and south of US 50.

* WHERE...The Washington Metropolitan area, portions of northern
  Virginia, and Washington DC.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon. Rain and sleet will change
  to all snow between 5 AM and 8 AM this morning. The heaviest
  snow will be through early this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads, making travel
  difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning
  commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibility will be reduced to below one-
  half mile at times in heavier bands of snow.

 

I got my alarm set for 7 but I'm too excited to sleep

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59 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Okay thanks. As a snow lover like most of us, will be disappointing to be so close to big amounts BUT I am going to enjoy whatever I can get because anything is better than nothing! Also very happy for the folks in the jackpot zone as everyone knows they've been in the shaft zone way too many times over the years! 

Tough call for Towson. Could see places 30-50 miles south with 6-8-10” as they see 2-3”. The cutoff is insane. Curious to see if we see ANY noticeable shift northward versus models with precip. So far, not so much. 

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