osfan24 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:40 AM, Ravens94 said: Yep it's a substantial shift and I'd say 80% are over 12 Expand Yeah, toss out a few of the ridiculous low totals and the mean is more like 16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Let's see if the NAM follows the SREF-HRRR trend. I'd be absolutely amazed if it did not shift NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:40 AM, psuhoffman said: BTW... the SREF's are mostly useless due to the crazy output of some of the members...but if I was going to use anything at all from them it would be the probabilities. Expand I personally find the precip type probabilities plume to be useful in looking for transition times in coastals! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Can't wait for the next fail run of the NAM, either 0z or 6z that's going to cause a meltdown. For most people, save your sanity, evacuate the board between now and 10:15 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:40 AM, psuhoffman said: BTW... the SREF's are mostly useless due to the crazy output of some of the members...but if I was going to use anything at all from them it would be the probabilities. Expand I think the Hrrr and SREFs are both pretty useless. I’ve seen brief times where it seems the Hrrr is providing added value, but it just bounces around too much. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:40 AM, psuhoffman said: BTW... the SREF's are mostly useless due to the crazy output of some of the members...but if I was going to use anything at all from them it would be the probabilities. Expand I was looking at general consensus of the members. When they basically all look good I think you can feel good about that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:42 AM, Ravens94 said: Let's see if the NAM follows the SREF-HRRR trend. I'd be absolutely amazed if it did not shift NWNam will probably go se cause everyone expects it to go nw lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:43 AM, WxUSAF said: I think the Hrrr and SREFs are both pretty useless. I’ve seen brief times where it seems the Hrrr is providing added value, but it just bounces around too much. Expand I agree … unless they show what I want 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:44 AM, Ji said: On 1/3/2022 at 1:42 AM, Ravens94 said: Let's see if the NAM follows the SREF-HRRR trend. I'd be absolutely amazed if it did not shift NW Expand Nam will probably go se cause everyone expects it to go nw lol Expand I don’t think it’s worth much over analyzing model output when you’re within 10 hours of game time, but you can get weird jumps on the convection resolving models as they respond to big thunderstorm clusters. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 AACo just closed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:29 AM, WxUSAF said: That WV image shows the trough is perfectly neutral tilt right over the MS Valley. Look at how the boundary between the dry and moist air (dark and bright) is oriented N/S along the AL/MS border. Expand Was looking at that in the chat earlier...it really is classic looking. If the NS could just back off a tad this would be a region wide winner... One thing I wonder...usually when we see these sharp cutoffs that kill our northern zones the airmass is much colder. I don't remember many instances where we get this kind of cutoff when it's still in the 40's up here even up here just a few hours before the storm. I know the mid level flow has a lot to do with it and not just the airmass but I do tend to think (maybe hope) that maybe the moisture can press a little further given the marginal airmass. On 1/3/2022 at 1:34 AM, alexderiemer said: Was the rude comment really necessary? I'm as much a part of this subforum as you. I track and root for the same storms as you. This kind of attitude is what drives people away or into lurking. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Expand I agree with you but this region is bloodsport with snow and you just have to be tough and ignore the rude BS, or dish it back at them! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The H5 already looks better on panel 6 to my untrained eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:47 AM, psuhoffman said: I agree with you but this region is bloodsport with snow and you just have to be tough and ignore the rude BS, or dish it back at them! So, post deck pics tomorrow?Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Further north on 12km NAM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lake Frederick Mike Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 40/38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:39 AM, diatae said: 51/43 (down from 63 shortly before sunset.) La Plata Expand 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The NAM is CRUSHING central VA at 13hrs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:49 AM, H2O said: I hope your palm trees make it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:42 AM, clskinsfan said: Thanks. Figured we would start seeing that at game time. Was a little concerned with the NAM's at 18z. But being concerned with the NAM's is not very smart. Expand The NAM can sometimes score a coup. I can remember a few times it was the ONLY model showing something and that happened. The problem is it's so inconsistent and unreliable and goes off on tangents with feedback issues and problems with chasing exponential errors...that you have no idea when its on to something or just being the NAM. On the whole it probably just adds more confusion and stress even if once in a while its right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:40 AM, WxUSAF said: Hey @CntrTim85, if you really want a timeout, you can just say so Expand This. Interlopers are welcome. But not if you're here to troll or antagonize. Kinda try to read the room. Also, for the most part, yall have been tolerable and I didn't storm mode this thread. Some banter is allowed and we can have some fun here and there, but try to mainly keep it on point. Don't make me release the Mappy-Ken. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 NAM definitely seems further north this round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 NAM is norther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 WB 21Z SREF 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Remember when we all laughed at the guy who posted the CRAS, it was right. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:52 AM, snowfan said: NAM is norther. Expand Show time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:43 AM, WxUSAF said: I think the Hrrr and SREFs are both pretty useless. I’ve seen brief times where it seems the Hrrr is providing added value, but it just bounces around too much. Expand I really hope they go all in and make the FV3 based short range ensemble package a worthwhile tool because the idea is really good they just totally failed in the execution with the SREF and the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 NAM looks good to me. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 NAM is north. 18z had the surface low in SC, 00z has it in NC. If you're south of I-70, you look good for a solid event. Really amazing how this event has appeared out of thin air. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:51 AM, psuhoffman said: The NAM can sometimes score a coup. I can remember a few times it was the ONLY model showing something and that happened. The problem is it's so inconsistent and unreliable and goes off on tangents with feedback issues and problems with chasing exponential errors...that you have no idea when its on to something or just being the NAM. On the whole it probably just adds more confusion and stress even if once in a while its right. Expand Yeah I think one such time was last season! I think it may have been the Miller B (or something else a week earlier). So it could be recency bias...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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