Fozz Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Stormpc said: He's not wrong, yet. Probably will be, but who knows. I actually think 1-3" is a very reasonable call for my area. But I'd be very surprised if nobody in the DC area or southern MD west of the bay gets over 5" with the heavy rates, plummeting temps, and abundant QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 46/37. That below zero call might have been premature 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: It will be wet at first and maybe melt a bit if it’s light to start, But looks like temps drop nicely. Those pounding lift into the DGZ won’t have that issue. The cutoff to me is the biggest issue. You're talking to me aren't you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 DC is safe.. Cantore's flight was canceled. I'd up the totals.. 2 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 50/40, gust of 35mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 27 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Loudon county schools are closed. Loudoun is 2 hours late so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 44/35. Brisk NW wind around 20 with gust to 30. Feels great outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 WeatherBug says 6-10". If I wasn't retired I'd be taking the day off work tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jebman said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 339 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region this evening, with low pressure then moving northeastward along the front late tonight into Monday. High pressure will return Tuesday before a weak system passes east Tuesday night. High pressure will return Wednesday before another system threatens for Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Latest analysis shows cold front across western Maryland and eastern West Virginia, sliding southeast across the region. To the south, low pressure is organizing over Alabama and Georgia and will be riding northeast across the Carolinas tonight and off the coast Monday. A few showers will cross the region this evening as the cold front crosses the area. Temps will fall rapidly behind the front. Quick on its heals, the low pressure will begin to spread precipitation northeastward across the region starting late this evening and continuing into the early morning. Guidance has come into better agreement and has trended significantly further northwest, so have increased snowfall totals and expanded warnings and advisories. Will be continually reviewing latest guidance this evening given still significantly discrepancies between model guidance, as well as great potential for a very sharp northwestern cut-off with some models showing a range from nothing to 6 inches within just a dozen miles or so. Great concern exists regarding potential for an intense FGEN band developing close to the metro early Monday which could drop 1-3 inch snowfall rates across the region. At this time, best odds favor locales just southeast, but potential does exist for upwards of a foot somewhere in our CWA. Nailing that location down is the hard part. ---------------------------- What you posted: Guidance has come into better agreement and has trended significantly further northwest, so have increased snowfall totals and expanded warnings and advisories. Will be continually reviewing latest guidance this evening given still significantly discrepancies between model guidance, as well as great potential for a very sharp northwestern cut-off with some models showing a range from nothing to 6 inches within just a dozen miles or so. Great concern exists regarding potential for an intense FGEN band developing close to the metro early Monday which could drop 1-3 inch snowfall rates across the region. At this time, best odds favor locales just southeast, but potential does exist for upwards of a foot somewhere in our CWA. Nailing that location down is the hard part. What I see: Guidance has come into better agreement and has trended significantly further northwest, so have increased snowfall totals and expanded warnings and advisories. Will be continually reviewing latest guidance this evening given still significantly discrepancies between model guidance, as well as great potential for a very sharp northwestern cut-off with some models showing a range from nothing to 6 inches within just a dozen miles or so. Great concern exists regarding potential for an intense FGEN band developing close to the metro early Monday which could drop 1-3 inch snowfall rates across the region. At this time, best odds favor locales just southeast, but potential does exist for upwards of a foot somewhere in our CWA. Nailing that location down is the hard part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Are you guys saying Tom is wrong around Baltimore or because of his totals further south? Because I feel 1-3 is very much in the cards around Baltimore, especially northern/western areas of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, H2O said: I'm sweating profusely already. 60.7 here. warm 54 WNW at 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: What you posted: Guidance has come into better agreement and has trended significantly further northwest, so have increased snowfall totals and expanded warnings and advisories. Will be continually reviewing latest guidance this evening given still significantly discrepancies between model guidance, as well as great potential for a very sharp northwestern cut-off with some models showing a range from nothing to 6 inches within just a dozen miles or so. Great concern exists regarding potential for an intense FGEN band developing close to the metro early Monday which could drop 1-3 inch snowfall rates across the region. At this time, best odds favor locales just southeast, but potential does exist for upwards of a foot somewhere in our CWA. Nailing that location down is the hard part. What I see: Guidance has come into better agreement and has trended significantly further northwest, so have increased snowfall totals and expanded warnings and advisories. Will be continually reviewing latest guidance this evening given still significantly discrepancies between model guidance, as well as great potential for a very sharp northwestern cut-off with some models showing a range from nothing to 6 inches within just a dozen miles or so. Great concern exists regarding potential for an intense FGEN band developing close to the metro early Monday which could drop 1-3 inch snowfall rates across the region. At this time, best odds favor locales just southeast, but potential does exist for upwards of a foot somewhere in our CWA. Nailing that location down is the hard part. Well I am pulling for all of you to get hammered HARD with heavy snow! Its about time! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Still 62°F here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Are you guys saying Tom is wrong around Baltimore or because of his totals further south? Because I feel 1-3 is very much in the cards around Baltimore, especially northern/western areas of Baltimore. We just don’t like the cut of his jib 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Are you guys saying Tom is wrong around Baltimore or because of his totals further south? Because I feel 1-3 is very much in the cards around Baltimore, especially northern/western areas of Baltimore. I just didn’t understand the ratio argument. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Not surprised, but looking like a shut-out is very possible for me. Of course, we're rocking the wind though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said: I'm sure I'll catch a lot of grief for this post BUT the bust potential is extremely high on this one. Good luck to everyone up north! True, it can bust high or low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Are you guys saying Tom is wrong around Baltimore or because of his totals further south? Because I feel 1-3 is very much in the cards around Baltimore, especially northern/western areas of Baltimore. IMO if he’s riding the NAM hard (which isn’t his explanation), then the 1-3 is fine but a max of 5” anywhere in VA is a standout low against other Mets (and the guidance). The bigger issue some of these guys are taking is that his explanation of low totals due to poor snow:liquid ratio seems unlikely given forecast temps in many areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said: I'm sure I'll catch a lot of grief for this post BUT the bust potential is extremely high on this one. Good luck to everyone up north! Where are you located? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Currently in Severna Park , MD Temp: 58.8 DP: 47 Wind: NW 15mph Current Bay water Temp at Thomas Point: 46.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Chase said: Loudoun is 2 hours late so far. I was just quoting the post that got deleted. Well, part of it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said: NE NC Me too! Yay thunder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Anybody know what the bread o meter is saying? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Wind is really picking up. Temps not falling yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18z euro is a tad flatter/more progressive 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I will hug the WB 21Z SREFS… 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said: NE NC So you were just throwing a turd in the punch bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 53/43 now IMBY. Only 21F to go!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 SREF's.....Wth is that shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18z Euro - Not a huge difference, but is a tough call for WV panhandle thru Westminster which did better at 12z 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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