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January 3, 2022 CAPE Storm Obs/Nowcast


WxUSAF
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The issue is not ratios. Not sure I follow that logic.

There is some strange obsession in this forum about caring what the local news talking heads have to say.. not sure why when you have an endless supply of vastly superior resources around here

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

Long time lurker, first time poster, but I have a question.  Will the tornado watches in FL rob the system of moisture headed up our way?

You’re in the wrong regional thread champ…show your own way out..we don’t take kindly to strangers around these here parts  

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2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

There is some strange obsession in this forum about caring what the local news talking heads have to say.. not sure why when you have an endless supply of vastly superior resources around here

Tasselmyer has been a great forecaster for a long time. Which is why I expect better from him.

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4 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

Assuming he’s talking ratios in terms of more compaction and on the heavy/wet side which would likely drop it to more of a 6:1-8:1

It will be wet at first and maybe melt a bit if it’s light to start, But looks like temps drop nicely. Those pounding lift into the DGZ won’t have that issue. The cutoff to me is the biggest issue. 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
339 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this evening, with low
pressure then moving northeastward along the front late tonight
into Monday. High pressure will return Tuesday before a weak
system passes east Tuesday night. High pressure will return
Wednesday before another system threatens for Thursday night and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Latest analysis shows cold front across western Maryland and
eastern West Virginia, sliding southeast across the region. To
the south, low pressure is organizing over Alabama and Georgia
and will be riding northeast across the Carolinas tonight and
off the coast Monday.

A few showers will cross the region this evening as the cold
front crosses the area. Temps will fall rapidly behind the
front. Quick on its heals, the low pressure will begin to spread
precipitation northeastward across the region starting late this
evening and continuing into the early morning. Guidance has come
into better agreement and has trended significantly further
northwest, so have increased snowfall totals and expanded
warnings and advisories. Will be continually reviewing latest
guidance this evening given still significantly discrepancies
between model guidance, as well as great potential for a very
sharp northwestern cut-off with some models showing a range from
nothing to 6 inches within just a dozen miles or so. Great
concern exists regarding potential for an intense FGEN band
developing close to the metro early Monday which could drop 1-3
inch snowfall rates across the region. At this time, best odds
favor locales just southeast, but potential does exist for
upwards of a foot somewhere in our CWA. Nailing that location
down is the hard part.

 

 

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