OBS-NOWCAST for the first moderate to high impact snowstorm of the 21-22 season, along and south of I95 3AM-7PM Monday January 3, 2022

[Snowlover11]

Winter of suck continues.

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

No expert. But judging by radar back end should graze LI. Not sure how long it will last 

 

Peaks of sun in Barnegat NJ, back end is marching to the coast FAST.  Just about over.  Quick 4 inch storm, and watching temps slide with the DP 

[psv88]

A meaty ehco south of the island by the N/S border. Let's see how far north she can get. Took the drone up and i can see the band offshore. Cant post photos here for some reason. 

Saw some flurries while outside, NW Suffolk

[jm1220]

Finally a couple of flakes here. Looks like some decent snow may make it to Captree/Fire Island. 

[Cfa]

On and off flurries in Bohemia, flakes are rather large for some reason.

[Tatamy]

Steady light snow at the Ponquogue Bridge in Hampton Bays.  Visibility under a mile out there.  I also just checked Tobay Beach and it looks like the snow is just offshore.

[MJO812]

Flurries here 

[Tatamy]

5 minutes ago, Cfa said:

On and off flurries in Bohemia, flakes are rather large for some reason.

Steady light snow at Ocean Beach now.

[mannynyc]

Per webcam looks like some minor accumulations in East Hampton

[jm1220]

Looks like a burst enough to maybe cover the ground coming for areas Rt 112 and east. Hamptons/Montauk might walk away with 1-3” after all. 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Finally a couple of flakes here. Looks like some decent snow may make it to Captree/Fire Island. 

light snow here too dont think it'll accumulate much

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like a burst enough to maybe cover the ground coming for areas Rt 112 and east. Hamptons/Montauk might walk away with 1-3” after all. 

South shore around islip should be getting light snow now, lets see if it can creep north of the LIE...

[Cfa]

4 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Steady light snow at Ocean Beach now.

Light snow in Bohemia now too.

[STORMANLI]

Snow pellets since 125pm

[bluewave]

Starting to get some very light snow here in SW Suffolk.

[lee59]

Very light snow here

[Allsnow]

A few stray flakes and that’s all. On to Friday with hopefully a better outcome for the metro.

[psv88]

I think i can call this very light snow in NW suffolk, starting to pile up on the BBQ, etc. 

30 degrees. 

[wdrag]

NW edge obviously dried out and SREF in particular was too far nw while the multiple model ensemble axis S+ did well (GEFS/EPS/SREF)...many reports 8-12" just south of DCA to near or just south of ACY.  

GFS obviously has a problem drying out snow, despite its decent soundings. Even the drier NAM was too robust on the NW side.  Am thinking similar drying out problem with the EC.  

Which leaves the SPC HREF best of the short range groups with its 00z/2, 12z/2 and 00z/3 cycles attached. 

It was a grazer as initially threaded by Forky.

As a planner-preparer for minimizing impacts, even though essentially nada occurred NYC, I would prepare similarly again.  The downside is far larger problem than the successful zero accumulation forecast.  

It's a matter of all of us realizing that the gradient edges of ensembled, or operational cycles can be wrong and keeping that in mind as we anticipate.

I'm sure we're in a far better place with the modeling than 10 or 20 years ago, let alone 50 years ago. 

[Intensewind002]

Finally getting some flurries here in Lindenhurst, 31/15 currently. I doubt we’ll get more than a dusting at this point but expectations were low anyways

[jm1220]

Some graupel and flurries here. 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NW edge obviously dried out and SREF in particular was too far nw while the multiple model ensemble axis S+ did well (GEFS/EPS/SREF)...many reports 8-12" just south of DCA to near or just south of ACY.  

GFS obviously has a problem drying out snow, despite its decent soundings. Even the drier NAM was too robust on the NW side.  Am thinking similar drying out problem with the EC.  

Which leaves the SPC HREF best of the short range groups with its 00z/2, 12z/2 and 00z/3 cycles attached. 

It was a grazer as initially threaded by Forky.

As a planner-preparer for minimizing impacts, even though essentially nada occurred NYC, I would prepare similarly again.  The downside is far larger problem than the successful zero accumulation forecast.  

It's a matter of all of us realizing that the gradient edges of ensembled, or operational cycles can be wrong and keeping that in mind as we anticipate.

I'm sure we're in a far better place with the modeling than 10 or 20 years ago, let alone 50 years ago. 

Seems like the dry air really won out from Philly on north. It’s why it’s better to look at soundings which showed the dry layer than the overaggressive snow maps in most cases. 

[psv88]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Seems like the dry air really won out from Philly on north. It’s why it’s better to look at soundings which showed the dry layer than the overaggressive snow maps in most cases. 

Yea. Even my call for 1/2" was too much lol. I should have stuck to my guns and called nothing. 

[wdrag]

9.5" in ACY as of 1P...makes it top 14 snowiest January on record and I think Bluewave indicated we might get top 10 snowiest day.  Right now #16 snowiest 24 hour snowfall in a climate calendar day.  

All this means (for me): it was a big one for that area. 

[psv88]

Westhampton reporting SN- and 2.00 mile visibility

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

9.5" in ACY as of 1P...makes it top 14 snowiest January on record and I think Bluewave indicated we might get top 10 snowiest day.  Right now #16 snowiest 24 hour snowfall in a climate calendar day.  

All this means (for me): it was a big one for that area. 

Still some mod to heavy banding in that area. Wonder if they have a shot at 12”? 

[MJO812]

Snow plowers and salt spreaders driving around lol

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea. Even my call for 1/2" was too much lol. I should have stuck to my guns and called nothing. 

Dry air moving back in according to radar. At least for us I think this is done. Hamptons have a little ways to go. 

[wdrag]

So, what do the EPS and GEFS ensembles look like 12 hours into a forecast. The 12z/3 cycle attached ending 00z this evening.  This is only 1 vendor.  

So the EPS looks more throughly available... but notice how much light snow it put into the dry air nw of I95.  Ditto the less spatially complete GEFS, but there as well,   too much snow into the dry air and these are only 12 hours into the forecast. So there were still a variety of solutions with the 12z init.  

This tries to demonstrate some limitations in the ensemble utility...  the core axis should usually should be reasonable in big systems, presuming it's consistent, not wind shield wiper  = back and forth.

[Snowshack]

Flurries and 30F, Wading River.   Upton's most recent discussion still somewhat bullish for Suffolk Cty

Likewise, cloud bases are lower towards Central and
Eastern Long Island and low clouds are more expansive there.
Snow has begun to develop but is currently light. Most intense
snow expected with potential 1/2 inch to 1 inch per hour rates
between 3 and 6 PM for southern and eastern portions of Suffolk
County. Winter weather advisory remains in effect until 7PM for
these areas. Still going with a snow forecast of 1 to 3 inches
with localized amounts up to 4 inches possible. Elsewhere, less
than an inch of snow expected with too much dry air in the low
levels to allow for steady snow. For NW Suffolk, 1 to 2 inches
of snow expected.