OBS-NOWCAST for the first moderate to high impact snowstorm of the 21-22 season, along and south of I95 3AM-7PM Monday January 3, 2022

[STORMANLI]

30/20

Had 30 seconds of flurries 730am

Sound enhancement and maybe a band could still come through 

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

So far this winter is reminding me of 2018-19, where one big storm slid just south of us due to bad luck early on and we came up with snake eyes the rest of the season. I think the highlight of the year was getting 2 inches of slush in late February.

The March 2019 storm was a disappointment. I think at the end it trended north and many of us were supposed to get 6-12”, ended up with a few inches or slush while Boston got crushed. 

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Looks like snow is back in off the ocean from east to west in eastern suffolk, esp south fork. Let's see how far west that can get.

There is no snow along the south shore as of now.  I just checked webcams in Ocean Beach and East Hampton.  From the sky conditions I saw I think if it does reach the south shore it would get to Fire Island first.

[forkyfork]

we'd be getting a nice fringe band without all this dry air

[Rmine1]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

There is no snow along the south shore as of now.  I just checked webcams in Ocean Beach and East Hampton.  From the sky conditions I saw I think if it does reach the south shore it would get to Fire Island first.

I can confirm. I’m on the immediate south shore and zippo

[psv88]

It is raining on Nantucket...So there is moisture at our latitude...maybe someone can go out on a boat south of fire island and fart

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Forget about any snow in Rockland. Too far north. 

yes sir I am well aware as that is what I said,,,BUT there's always Thursday 

[psv88]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Brutal. 50 miles is all us on LI asked for. 

Yea, i just texted my buddy in Marlboro where they have solid radar returns over head, and there is nothing. Bustorama for them. 

[forkyfork]

why can't model snow maps die already

[jm1220]

Looks like a band might be forming over the south fork. Other than that, yet to see one flake where I am like most everyone else. 

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea, i just texted my buddy in Marlboro where they have solid radar returns over head, and there is nothing. Bustorama for them. 

If that area gets nothing than it's a slight bust. Forecast there calls for 1-3." Yesterday's CMC, RGEM, EC etc gave that area a few inches. But the modeled cutoff has been very sharp and plenty of individual runs over the past few days (CMC, ICON, NAM, HRRR) gave nothing.

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

why can't model snow maps die already

not trolling, not pot stirring. they are USELESS

[forkyfork]

and they will be posted dozens of times this week ahead of the friday storm

[Rmine1]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Looks like a band might be forming over the south fork. Other than that, yet to see one flake where I am like most everyone else. 

same here, I’m due south of u. NWS thinking lines up with what you said 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Through this morning, the main factor here is dry air. Dewpoint
depressions still around 15 to 20 degrees are present in the
area with exception towards Eastern Long Island where dewpoint
depressions are 10 to 15 degrees. Likewise, cloud bases are
lower towards Eastern Long Island and low clouds are more
expansive there. This is where snow is expected to begin first
this afternoon.

Highest snowfall amounts relatively speaking are across Eastern
Long Island, 2-3 inches. These were slightly adjusted downward,
more so for NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and SW CT which
are expected to have less than 1 inch of snow. These locations
have forecast dewpoints that are near 15 degrees or less, still
presenting quite a bit of low level dry air that will really
limit the snow.

[hooralph]

Glad I decided to bike to work today. Bone dry.

[patrick05]

Seeing some flakes flying on the East Hampton Beach Cam 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2cb86biAsk

 

[dseagull]

Barnegat, NJ. 1240.  30.4/33.  Light/mod snow.  Lull in the wind, 12@ 345 NNW.  Gusts to 24 @10m on the bay.  3.7" on the board.    Looks like we may get one more band before it wraps up at 1430

[the_other_guy]

This is not a bust.

 

People cherry pick models and runs that show trends they like and Manufacture a snowstorm.

 

The thing is this is not politics, there is no spin. You are either going to get snow or you’re not.

 

Inside 24 hours northwest track is a red herring.

 

GFS, this year, is a joke.

 

It was south it was always going to be south. Flow too fast. Air too dry

 

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

If you do not have a flake by now on Long Island, you're probably unlikely to see them unless you get a flurry on the backside of this. Dry air is building in and it would appear the leading area of snow is beginning to be suppressed to the e-se.

WX/PT

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

This is not a bust.

 

People cherry pick models and runs that show trends they like and Manufacture a snowstorm.

 

The thing is this is in politics, there is no spin. You are either going to get snow or you’re not.

 

Inside 24 hours north word track is a red herring.

 

GFS, this year, is a joke.

 

It was south it was always going to be south. Flow too fast. Air too dry

 

 

Agreed. Except the irony is the GFS was probably the best model with this from 5 days out. At least the best for all parameters except the only one that anybody looks at, QPF. I hope that minor issue gets fixed. It's unfortunate that so many people will learn the wrong lesson from this. 

People have to stop looking at QPF maps and especially 3rd party snow maps. Anybody who looked at the GFS 700mb charts was not surprised by the northward extent of the snow.

[Eduardo]

Seeing breaks in the cloud deck off to my west (looking out over Manhattan) now.  Not a flake.  Still sitting at a trace for the season on Roosevelt Island. 

[eduggs]

If the beaches and eastern sections are going to accumulate a coating to an inch, it starts now. The bands have finally aligned SW to NE.

[Rmine1]

4 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

If you do not have a flake by now on Long Island, you're probably unlikely to see them unless you get a flurry on the backside of this. Dry air is building in and it would appear the leading area of snow is beginning to be suppressed to the e-se.

WX/PT

And they just salted the roads, kiss of death

[Tatamy]

Flurries in the air at Ocean Beach.

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

If you do not have a flake by now on Long Island, you're probably unlikely to see them unless you get a flurry on the backside of this. Dry air is building in and it would appear the leading area of snow is beginning to be suppressed to the e-se.

WX/PT

Disagree. Snow is still spreading Se to NW across eastern suffolk. How far west is goes is anyone's guess, but the snow continues to back from the ocean further west

[dseagull]

Just now, eduggs said:

Agreed. Except the irony is the GFS was probably the best model with this from 5 days out. At least the best for all parameters except the only one that anybody looks at, QPF. I hope that minor issue gets fixed. It's unfortunate that so many people will learn the wrong lesson from this. 

People have to stop looking at QPF maps and especially 3rd party snow maps. Anybody who looked at the GFS 700mb charts was not surprised by the northward extent of the snow.

Exactly.  While people in NYC and LI are calling this a bust for not delivering, it may be argued that it is a bust high for people in Tom's River and further South.  This was always a southern storm until late in the game, and many people on the Jersey Shore are busting high, (if you remove extreme runs from the past 18-24 hours.)  It is all perspective.  

Nice little nusaince event until you go south of Little Egg in NJ

[nycwinter]

snow must be invisible in  upper manhattan i did not see it...

[dseagull]

Also, NWS Mt Holly did amazingly well with conservative forecasts.  Kudos. 

[weathermedic]

Flurries or what appears to be more like graupel falling in extreme SW Nassau County in Inwood just east of JFK.

[mannynyc]

It will be be interesting to see what Suffolk county gets with the back end of this.