OBS-NOWCAST for the first moderate to high impact snowstorm of the 21-22 season, along and south of I95 3AM-7PM Monday January 3, 2022

[Tatamy]

The farthest north location along the Jersey shore where there is currently snow falling is Seaside Park.

[North and West]

A significant snowfall in DC, it's about damn time. If I manage to get a snow shower out of this I'll be happy.

Good for them. Let them enjoy it. We’ll get ours, whether it’s this year or next. We’ve been very spoiled.

Kind of reminds me of having your plate overflowing and you’re annoyed someone else is going up to the buffet. (Pre-Covid, of course)


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[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 89 event models actually began backing off on the 00z run the evening before but forecasters were slow to react.  The 12z runs morning of 2-24 pretty much showed zilch but again they didn’t really give up on the forecast til 3-4pm.  ACY has had .24 liquid this hour lol 

Wouldn’t surprise me if they end up with 12” down there. Very nice event down in S NJ. 

[MJO812]

Radar doesn't look bad right now. Close call for NYC but I think we see some snow. 

[eduggs]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Please be right 

For radar reflectivity it's not bad.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

For radar reflectivity it's not bad.

Snow is pretty close to philly

[Brasiluvsnow]

Radar does look good BUT is it snowing that far north ? Most likely ,,,,NO

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Snow is pretty close to philly

Yeah it has made its way past the airport up to the Girard Point Bridge but not to Center City.

[greenmtnwx]

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What hurts is that there isn't alot of blocking.

Should’ve listened bud 

[psv88]

More likely to be snow in Suffolk county than Parts of CNJ IMO, those NE winds from the ocean and sound should moisten up the low levels a bit

[MJO812]

30 here in Brooklyn 

[JTA66]

7 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Radar does look good BUT is it snowing that far north ? Most likely ,,,,NO

Don't know what it means for your area, but I've been under virga all morning 25 miles NW of Philly.

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

More likely to be snow in Suffolk county than Parts of CNJ IMO, those NE winds from the ocean and sound should moisten up the low levels a bit

This has more to do with what is going on in the mid levels.  The wind off the ocean is not currently producing any snow along the north Jersey coast.

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Don't know what it means for your area, but I've been under virga all morning 25 miles NW of Philly.

I feel bad for you.  I looks like it has taken most of the morning for snow just to move NW across the Delaware River to a point a few miles NW of I95.  Even there visibility looks to be about a mile.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

This has more to do with what is going on in the mid levels.  The wind off the ocean is not currently producing any snow along the north Jersey coast.

Once you get to eastern Suffolk and the islands it should make some difference. Hell they can get ocean effect snow and enhanced snow with a cold NE wind in similar setups. We will see what happens. 

[CIK62]

I am at 31*(45%RH) and have not seen any snow yet in CI.      Visibility is 10+ Miles.     

[Tatamy]

Snowing in Point Pleasant, NJ.  That would be almost to exit 98 on the GSP.

[North and West]

Like a Virga… dry air filtering in for the umpteenth time


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[lee59]

Just started snowing in Philly

[uofmiami]

31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

More likely to be snow in Suffolk county than Parts of CNJ IMO, those NE winds from the ocean and sound should moisten up the low levels a bit

 

 

[stemwinder]

Shows on Wunderground, but not in reality.  A little white stuff would be nice for a change.  I am at Princeton/W Windsor boundary.

[Tatamy]

20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Once you get to eastern Suffolk and the islands it should make some difference. Hell they can get ocean effect snow and enhanced snow with a cold NE wind in similar setups. We will see what happens. 

The snow that potentially will fall later in eastern Suffolk will be related more to what is happening on the synoptic scale.  Assuming it happens I would agree that there could be ocean enhancement.  As of now I like the chances for snow to fall on the island, especially along the south shore.

[Brasiluvsnow]

34 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Don't know what it means for your area, but I've been under virga all morning 25 miles NW of Philly.

JT I have zero shot at this one I am in Rockland but I am looking at the radar ( have been for a while) and by all reports what the radar is showing is not snow in some places 

[Tatamy]

Light snow has reached up to Asbury Park on the north Jersey coast.

[SnowGoose69]

Based off the latest CIG at East Hampton airport my guess is some places on the S Fork are snowing

[MJO812]

I would be happy if the gfs is right

 

Over 3 inches here for my area 

[TJW014]

About an inch on the roof and other cold surfaces. Just starting to sick now to the grass. 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I would be happy if the gfs is right

 

Over 3 inches here for my area 

You can even see the Sound enhancement into NW Suffolk on that map. Fingers crossed.

 

Down to 29/18 now. 

[psv88]

Just now, psv88 said:

You can even see the Sound enhancement into NW Suffolk on that map. Fingers crossed.

 

Down to 28/18 now. RH is 63%

 

[eduggs]

The GFS was right a few days ago when it started strengthening and sharpening the southern stream wave and signaling a greater separation and storm threat. The model caught this feature earlier than other guidance.

But the GFS also appears to have a problem with its QPF parameter that has been observed several times this winter season, and notably today. It shows precipitation at the surface that would actually sublimate or evaporate before reaching the ground. Simulated radar reflectivity maps look pretty good, but QPF is way off.

The dry lower-mid level air was very well modeled with this storm. In fact it appears that, outside of the QPF parameter, the GFS did very well.