OBS-NOWCAST for the first moderate to high impact snowstorm of the 21-22 season, along and south of I95 3AM-7PM Monday January 3, 2022

[Rmine1]

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

This is a miss for NYC metro…

Thinking the same thing. See if they drop WWA for western Suffolk in the next update 

[lee59]

Heavy overcast here, looks like it could snow at any minute. Looks like heavy snow about 20 miles south of Long Island.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

This is a miss for NYC metro…

Euro still has an inch or 2 for southern areas and gfs showed 2-3 inches. We shall see.

[SnoSki14]

I wouldn't be surprised if we don't even see flakes from this.

[wdrag]

Definitely a concern that dry air ingest cuts back snow accums I95w itself...NYC could escape with NIL and PHL less than currently modeled-forecast?? Just need to wait til 1030AM to be sure (for me). The storm is still near Hatteras so we should see a northward push by Noon...  I added the HRRRX which looks reasonable to me. At 830A widespread 1/4S+ to 1/2S DCA-BWI-ACY.  Now awaiting some northward advance in NJ around 10A.  You can see the scalloped edges of northern snow boundary as dry air evaporates the falling snow LI-PHL. 

[dave0176]

I am at the extreme north east end of Brick by Brielle and point pleasant and we don’t even have a flake yet.

[North and West]

This is a miss for NYC metro…

c’est la vie say the old folks


.

[Stormlover74]

Ouch

 

[dseagull]

31.5/31.  Barnegat, NJ.  Mod snow.  About 1.2 inches on grass, roads just caved.  Rt. 9 covered and getting slick fast.  Not expecting too much, but this freeze tonight is going to make this stuff a nightmare for roads. 

[lee59]

Looks like the snow is starting to fill in over N.J. and moving into the city. Not sure if it is virga.

[Tatamy]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro still has an inch or 2 for southern areas and gfs showed 2-3 inches. We shall see.

Dry air in the mid levels looks to keep accumulating snow well south of the city.  I just checked traffic cams along I95 in the Philly area- nada.  In NJ the line that delineates snow from no snow looks to run roughly along I295 up to route 70 and then east and ENE along route 70 to the shore.  The extent of the radar returns north of there indicates the degree of dry air in the mid levels.

[donsutherland1]

Thundersnow is occurring in Virginia. We have only dense and dreary overcast in southern Westchester County.

[MJO812]

Please be right 

[romba]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ouch

 

Painful for some, we've all been there.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Please be right 

Lol

 

[Franklin0529]

Down my moms in Galloway 10 minutes from Atlantic city. 4" already 

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ouch

 

I suspected yesterday that the models may have over corrected north and we might see the shift back SE that often happens with these. In any case I’m starting to doubt many of us near NYC see anything at all. Dry air is holding up. Really a shame that this is a suppressed to crap system being pushed out to sea. Would’ve been a very nice event here-frustrating especially since this looks like a winter where our snow chances will be quite limited. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I suspected yesterday that the models may have over corrected north and we might see the shift back SE that often happens with these. In any case I’m starting to doubt many of us near NYC see anything at all. Dry air is holding up. Really a shame that this is a suppressed to crap system being pushed out to sea. Would’ve been a very nice event here-frustrating especially since this looks like a winter where our snow chances will be quite limited. 

What hurts is that there isn't alot of blocking.

[Stormlover74]

This reminds me of the Feb 89 event where 4 to 8" was expected in NYC and not a flake fell. Meanwhile acy down to Norfolk got a foot or more

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol

I sure hope a model like that doesn’t replace the NAM. 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/environmental-modeling-center/fv3-convective-allowing-forecast-system

NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance.

[72bundy]

Toms River, nothing happening 35 deg @ 9:15

[LoboLeader1]

Cloudy here, current temp of 26. 

[MJO812]

My friend is currently in Wildwood

[coastalplainsnowman]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This reminds me of the Feb 89 event where 4 to 8" was expected in NYC and not a flake fell. Meanwhile acy down to Norfolk got a foot or more

100%.  If it's the one I'm remembering, left for school in the AM with dreams of '83, even in terms of start time.  Didn't see one flake though, but as I recall Atlantic City got 18" and even Montauk got a foot.

[the_other_guy]

I said it yesterday…You need to watch that race NW within 24 hours.

Seen it too many times. Almost never pans out

If you find yourself saying “24 hours out and we dont know” you are talking yourself into a wishcast.

The models are good. They do know!

[Stormlover74]

Just now, coastalplainsnowman said:

100%.  If it's the one I'm remembering, left for school in the AM with dreams of '83, even in terms of start time.  Didn't see one flake though, but as I recall Atlantic City got 18" and even Montauk got a foot.

Yep I remember the feeling of dread as each hour went by and it wasn't yet snowing. By noon the sun was peaking out and I knew it was over

[dWave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

U.S. Capitol Camera:

https://www.senate.gov/general/capcam.htm

Kennedy Center Camera:

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/dc/?cam=dc_kennedycenter

 

A significant snowfall in DC, it's about damn time. If I manage to get a snow shower out of this I'll be happy.

[jm1220]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What hurts is that there isn't alot of blocking.

The upper air flow is too zonal. Despite that given the zonal pattern the storm is being forced out. 

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yep I remember the feeling of dread as each hour went by and it wasn't yet snowing. By noon the sun was peaking out and I knew it was over

The 89 event models actually began backing off on the 00z run the evening before but forecasters were slow to react.  The 12z runs morning of 2-24 pretty much showed zilch but again they didn’t really give up on the forecast til 3-4pm.  ACY has had .24 liquid this hour lol 

[wishcast_hater]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yep I remember the feeling of dread as each hour went by and it wasn't yet snowing. By noon the sun was peaking out and I knew it was over

I totally remember that as a kid, my hopes were crushed.  I kept looking outside the window at school in hopes to see a flake of snow but it never happened. I watched the news that evening with South Jersey buried. The 80's were tough for us snow lovers in the city, it seemed every storm turned to rain or it was cold and dry. My grandparents lived upstate in Saugerties and they were buried while it was raining in the city.