OBS-NOWCAST for the first moderate to high impact snowstorm of the 21-22 season, along and south of I95 3AM-7PM Monday January 3, 2022

[wdrag]

A moderate to major 6-12 hour snowstorm will occur Monday, mainly from somewhere within the I95 corridor southward.  

Snow, sleet, rain or freezing rain should begin between 3 and 6AM in NJ and NYC-LI-s CT around 6A-8A.  Any mixed precip will change to all snow soon after beginning. Temperatures may be still be just above freezing at the start, but drop into the mid 20s by 10AM with wind chill down into teens and north-northeast winds gusting 20 to possibly 30 MPH.  

Drifting snow should develop wherever amounts exceed 4".  

12z/2 NAM 900-500MB and 800-600MB banding suggests 1-2"/hour snowfall for a couple of hours during the height of the storm across central NJ and southern-eastern LI. 

Details of how much and where the sharp cutoff on the northern fringe (NYC), NNJ/s CT/se NYS still to be determined  but too many models have slowly shifted northward the past day of cycles to prompt concerns for a significant impact storm.

03z and 09z/2 SPC SREF modeling has broad range of solutions but suggest close to 5" LGA with the blizzard conditions remaining just offshore. 

Let's keep the modeling-storm discussion in the January thread til after the 9PM (00z/3 NAM cycle has posted through Monday). MPing may be helpful.

The 12z/2 ECMWF Kuchera snowfall map has been added per our thanks and appreciation to the ECMWF-Weather.US. This is a single operational member of all the modeling but represents potential... This could shift a bit either direction with time and amounts might end up significantly less in some areas but overall, it seems to have the axis of high impact travel concern fairly well outlined. 

[wdrag]

I'll be offline 3P-830P - someone is welcome to add the WATCHES and WARNINGS map when it finally completes at 5PM.  I'll add the winter storm severity index at 9P and we all can update all the modeling-data-observations from that time forward. I suspect our first mPing wintry precip will show up in southern edge around 3A-4A. 

[eduggs]

Watching the precipitation spreading into KY... So far it looks roughly well-modeled. I'd love to see the incipient shield punch right into Ohio. And ideally into southwest PA. The further north the initial SLP pushes, the further north along the coast it is likely to shift or redevelop to. Just wishcasting... Shift the entire synoptic setup 20 miles north and all of I-95 is likely looking at a moderate snowstorm.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

A moderate to major 6-12 hour snowstorm will occur Monday, mainly from somewhere within the I95 corridor southward.  

Snow, sleet, rain or freezing rain should begin between 3 and 6AM in NJ and NYC-LI-s CT around 6A-8A.  Any mixed precip will change to all snow soon after beginning. Temperatures may be still be just above freezing at the start, but drop into the mid 20s by 10AM with wind chill down into teens and north-northeast winds gusting 20 to possibly 30 MPH.  

Drifting snow should develop wherever amounts exceed 4".  

12z/2 NAM 900-500MB and 800-600MB banding suggests 1-2"/hour snowfall for a couple of hours during the height of the storm across central NJ and southern-eastern LI. 

Details of how much and where the sharp cutoff on the northern fringe (NYC), NNJ/s CT/se NYS still to be determined  but too many models have slowly shifted northward the past day of cycles to prompt concerns for a significant impact storm.

03z and 09z/2 SPC SREF modeling has broad range of solutions but suggest close to 5" LGA with the blizzard conditions remaining just offshore. 

Let's keep the modeling-storm discussion in the January thread til after the 9PM (00z/3 NAM cycle has posted through Monday). MPing may be helpful.

The 12z/2 ECMWF Kuchera snowfall map has been added per our thanks and appreciation to the ECMWF-Weather.US. This is a single operational member of all the modeling but represents potential... This could shift a bit either direction with time and amounts might end up significantly less in some areas but overall, it seems to have the axis of high impact travel concern fairly well outlined. 

wow in the purple here in SW Nassau....6 plus sounds excessive lol

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Feeling like I am in a good spot here in south Monmouth 

[greenmtnwx]

4 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Feeling like I am in a good spot here in south Monmouth 

Could be 3-4”

[MJO812]

I'm hoping for something

 

[ForestHillWx]

34/28 here. Expecting a few flurries. 

[dseagull]

Barnegat, NJ on the water.  47.2/41.  Temp dropped 10 degrees in 75 minutes.  Wind went NW at 12, and getting some gusts of clean NW air picking up.  

We are due for a nice 6+ event.  Bird hunting should be interesting tomorrow. 

[lee59]

NAM is more north

[Allsnow]

Down to 36 off a high of 60. Very impressive drop 

[WeatherFox]

Advisory creeping close to the NYC area:

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
906 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

DEZ001-NJZ013-014-016>019-PAZ070-071-031500-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.220103T0900Z-220103T2100Z/
New Castle-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Freehold, Sandy Hook,
Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown,
Mount Holly, Media, and Philadelphia
906 PM EST Sun Jan 2 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches.

* WHERE...Parts of central and southwestern New Jersey, far
  southeastern Pennsylvania and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...From 4:00 AM until 4:00 PM Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use extra caution while driving.

 

 

[Snowlover11]

not expecting much if anything up here in yonkers but it definitely is getting colder down to 37F

[Brasiluvsnow]

Yep it is so close yet so far,,,,,hoping the models bust and this thing is much farther North than advertised , Rockland has no shot at this but maybe the 5 boroughs can get into the action

[JonClaw]

SREF plumes have a mean of almost 8" for KLGA. That can't be right... right?

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, JonClaw said:

SREF plumes have a mean of almost 8" for KLGA. That can't be right... right?

We're going to find out pretty shortly lol. 

[SRRTA22]

37f with a dew of 27

RH 68% 

Jersey City,NJ 

[MJO812]

34 here

Gfs bumped up the snow amounts to 2-4 inches for the NYC area

 

[wdrag]

NYC-LI on the edge.  The SPC SREF came down NYC to around 2-3" and that may be too high. Think best chance NYC to transfer from virga storm to a brief period of steady snow is Noon-3P. Follow the models and the we'll check the results around 7PM. 

Graphics below are the SPC HREF--- looks good to me and NWS ensemble probs for 1" and a foot. 

NAM banding page suggests 1-2"/hr snowfall rate potential s NJ 10A-3P.  We'll see if that encroaches into Monmouth-Ocean counties midday?

[wdrag]

Out of area but to illustrate the potency..Asheville NC just had a nw wind gust to 51 knot at 506A and of course snowing there... maybe more than here in NYC. 

[Snowlover11]

I know its south of most of our area but a friend of mine just west of seaside is reporting light snow. 

[dseagull]

33.4/30, Barnegat, NJ....rain flipped to moderate snow 25 minutes ago, and grass and car tops are quickly covered.  Dog is having a blast. 

The cutoff is going to be a super tight gradient on this one.  I have low expectations for this type of setup, but someone will take a crack at 10 inches.  I'm making the call 4-5 here with low ratios. 

[wdrag]

34 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

I know its south of most of our area but a friend of mine just west of seaside is reporting light snow. 

Seaside in Ocean County is the southern fringe of our area. Thanks for your report.

[MJO812]

32 here

[ILoveWinter]

Northern extent of radar returns hitting that brick wall just north of Philly eastward to Brick.

[Rmine1]

32, finally feels like winter. Although it looks like dry air will be too much for my location on south shore LI

[uncle W]

Ashlan VA...

 

[the_other_guy]

This is a miss for NYC metro…

[donsutherland1]

U.S. Capitol Camera:

https://www.senate.gov/general/capcam.htm

Kennedy Center Camera:

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/dc/?cam=dc_kennedycenter

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

This is a miss for NYC metro…

Yep. Unless it makes a pretty good north jump in the next few hours I’m just not seeing it. Dewpoints in the low teens aren’t helping. It’s hitting the wall of dry air up here and you can tell there’s virga from the Mt Holly radar.