IrishRob17 Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: How's everybody doing on running snow totals? I have 8.6" YTD. I'm sure someone has the data to show that's only like 3" below average for the date, but subjectively it ranks up there with the all-time stinkers imby 10.3" on the season which puts me 7.2" below the NWS normal for KMGJ to date and 8.0" below my running average to date. 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I'm at 11.0 even right now. It's hard to find any reliable sights in the HV with good historical snowfall averages. Poughkeepsie hasn't done snowfall totals for years but when they did they were atrocious, even worse than Central Park was at measuring. It seemed like anything less than 3 inches they didn't bother to measure many years. I guess that's one of the reasons they sopped them measuring. Finally someone at NWS realized the data was bad. Agreed. How do you compare to your own running average? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: 10.3" on the season which puts me 7.2" below the NWS normal for KMGJ to date and 8.0" below my running average to date. Agreed. How do you compare to your own running average? We're at 9.7", but nothing on the ground...so there's that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I'm at 11.0 even right now. It's hard to find any reliable sights in the HV with good historical snowfall averages. I don't think I've even hit 6". Maybe but it sure doesn't feel like it. Look up Jerome Thaler. He was from Yorktown and had the most comprehensive stats for the HV going back decades that I've ever seen. I used to buy USGS Topo maps from him because he had a collection better than most museums. I can't imagine he's still alive but maybe... @weathafella knew him too (hey buddy, haha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I'm at 11.0 even right now. It's hard to find any reliable sights in the HV with good historical snowfall averages. Poughkeepsie hasn't done snowfall totals for years but when they did they were atrocious, even worse than Central Park was at measuring. It seemed like anything less than 3 inches they didn't bother to measure many years. I guess that's one of the reasons they sopped them measuring. Finally someone at NWS realized the data was bad. Yeah, I've never found a useful period for KPOU snowfall. It's a shame. Years ago, someone showed me these highly detailed average snowfall maps for the Appalachian Trail corridor, which includes a good swath of NNJ, the HV, and the Berks. I never found out too much about where the data comes from or what the period of record is. Still, given the lack of alternatives (plus how pretty they are), I do refer to them at times.https://weathercarrot.smugmug.com/Weathercarrot-photos/AT-Snow-Maps/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, I've never found a useful period for KPOU snowfall. It's a shame. Years ago, someone showed me these highly detailed average snowfall maps for the Appalachian Trail corridor, which includes a good swath of NNJ, the HV, and the Berks. I never found out too much about where the data comes from or what the period of record is. Still, given the lack of alternatives (plus how pretty they are), I do refer to them at times.https://weathercarrot.smugmug.com/Weathercarrot-photos/AT-Snow-Maps/ Thanks for those, interesting. For the area of Orange County it details, it’s anywhere from 40-55 inches, which is about what I’ve always gone with. Highalnd mills where I am I always estimated the average to be around 50 inches although in the last decade from my own measurements somewhat higher than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Look here https://www.abebooks.com/book-search/author/JEROME-S-THALER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 17 hours ago, Juliancolton said: How's everybody doing on running snow totals? I have 8.6" YTD. I'm sure someone has the data to show that's only like 3" below average for the date, but subjectively it ranks up there with the all-time stinkers imby 12.7 ytd here. I would say roughly 10” below average 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 35f and light snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I'm at about a half inch already and it's coming down at a pretty good clip. Temp has been falling since it peaked around 5am @ 39° right before it started to change to snow. It's about to drop below 32 so it's just a matter of time before it gets ugly slick out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Down to 34f and sticking. Solid coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 12 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Thanks for those, interesting. For the area of Orange County it details, it’s anywhere from 40-55 inches, which is about what I’ve always gone with. Highalnd mills where I am I always estimated the average to be around 50 inches although in the last decade from my own measurements somewhat higher than that. 40-55” is def a good range for those at or below 1000’ in Orange County. I’ve always estimated my long term average imby to be in the 50” range but my measurements have reflected a 55-60” average within the last 20 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Down to 32 here with moderate snow. Roads snow covered, quick 0.3” so far. Radar back filled in nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service New York NY 835 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 CTZ005>008-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-201600- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam- Rockland-Northern Westchester- 835 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 ...SNOW THIS MORNING... Light to moderate snow will continue this morning. The snow will taper off by around noon. Totals in the 1 to 2 inch range can be expected by the time the snow ends. Extra caution should be used if traveling this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 The way this plastered everything it's gonna be pretty when the sun comes out. It's also gonna be a big pita to clean if you don't get to it before it freezes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 You know it's a measly winter when a 1-2 inch event feels like a highlight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 49 minutes ago, gravitylover said: The way this plastered everything it's gonna be pretty when the sun comes out. It's also gonna be a big pita to clean if you don't get to it before it freezes. Yeah, winding down here after a very pretty 1.0". Better than a sharp stick in the eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Done at 1.5 inches. I think I'm the region wide winner on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 Thanks to @Juliancoltonfor that link to the snow maps, I don't recall seeing that before and bookmarked it for future use. We all know that snowfall is the least accurate of weather readings for many reasons. You have slant stickers, car top measurers, and the classic eyeball measuring. Then there are reasonable reasons for differences due to terrain and microclimates which is why I'm not a fan of making broad brush assumptions on average snowfall but sometimes that's all we can go on outside of ones own yard. This is a reason I got a bit more scientific in my measurements and started keeping better records. If I used the measurement I got from my yard on Monday it would've been close to .5 higher than what I had on the board. There are people *cough* @BxEngine *cough* who have been known to not mow their lawn after Labor Day simply so that they can get a higher snow measurement. That may or may not be true but I digress, I encourage anyone that is really interested in snowfall averages, measuring, etc. to get a snow board, a tenths ruler, set up a spreadsheet and start gathering your own stats. Its not difficult but it does take time to to build up the data. That said, there are plenty of people that don't care that much about this and that's fine too. The average for KMGJ does seem a bit low and I think it may be based off of COOP reporting as the airport itself does not measure as far as I know. The Crist brothers have COOP records from Walden that go way back, that may have been used for all I know. For those that like to look back at weather records I recommend spending some time here looking at old monthly reports: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html Below is a screenshot of the KMGJ averages along with my own calculated running averages for anyone interested. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I have 3 snowboards but i still use the high grass as my usual measure lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 On the cars it's 2", other exposed surfaces are similar. Yard and driveway are more like 1.5. Snow seems to be done now. They way it was deposited by the north wind makes it much prettier looking south. Looking north everything is just wet and dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 43 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Thanks to @Juliancoltonfor that link to the snow maps, I don't recall seeing that before and bookmarked it for future use. We all know that snowfall is the least accurate of weather readings for many reasons. You have slant stickers, car top measurers, and the classic eyeball measuring. Then there are reasonable reasons for differences due to terrain and microclimates which is why I'm not a fan of making broad brush assumptions on average snowfall but sometimes that's all we can go on outside of ones own yard. This is a reason I got a bit more scientific in my measurements and started keeping better records. If I used the measurement I got from my yard on Monday it would've been close to .5 higher than what I had on the board. There are people *cough* @BxEngine *cough* who have been known to not mow their lawn after Labor Day simply so that they can get a higher snow measurement. That may or may not be true but I digress, I encourage anyone that is really interested in snowfall averages, measuring, etc. to get a snow board, a tenths ruler, set up a spreadsheet and start gathering your own stats. Its not difficult but it does take time to to build up the data. That said, there are plenty of people that don't care that much about this and that's fine too. The average for KMGJ does seem a bit low and I think it may be based off of COOP reporting as the airport itself does not measure as far as I know. The Crist brothers have COOP records from Walden that go way back, that may have been used for all I know. For those that like to look back at weather records I recommend spending some time here looking at old monthly reports: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html Below is a screenshot of the KMGJ averages along with my own calculated running averages for anyone interested. Well of course the first thing that sticks out on the Montgomery totals is how can October be zero? The October 29, 2011 storm saw a pretty uniform 12-18 inches across Orange County. Let's use 15 inches as their total for that date and if it never snowed in October in any other year the October average would be 0.5 inches for the 30 year average 1991-2020. There have also been other minor events in October over that time, so there goes the Montgomery accuracy. Unless the data you posted was 1981-2010 averages, even then like you say they seem low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Well of course the first thing that sticks out on the Montgomery totals is how can October be zero? The October 29, 2011 storm saw a pretty uniform 12-18 inches across Orange County. Let's use 15 inches as their total for that date and if it never snowed in October in any other year the October average would be 0.5 inches for the 30 year average 1991-2020. There have also been other minor events in October over that time, so there goes the Montgomery accuracy. Unless the data you posted was 1981-2010 averages, even then like you say they seem low. Exactly. Those are the new averages on Upton's webpage. Do you keep records? Curious what numbers you have come up with over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 18 hours ago, gravitylover said: I don't think I've even hit 6". Maybe but it sure doesn't feel like it. Look up Jerome Thaler. He was from Yorktown and had the most comprehensive stats for the HV going back decades that I've ever seen. I used to buy USGS Topo maps from him because he had a collection better than most museums. I can't imagine he's still alive but maybe... @weathafella knew him too (hey buddy, haha). Here's his COOP report for January 1996, look a that snowpack...and then gone https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-543FF03B-BC6F-4812-9EBD-484040853764.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 53 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Exactly. Those are the new averages on Upton's webpage. Do you keep records? Curious what numbers you have come up with over there. Rob: I only have accurate, what I would call precision measurements, since 2011/2012. For the 10 seasons since then through 2020/21 I've averaged 53.8 inches per season. From memory and observations of 2001/02 through 2010/11 I would guess those 10 seasons averaged out pretty similar. Some epic winters in there and a few real stinkers. Either 2002/03, 2009/10 or 2010/11 were at or near 100 inches for the season. I'm thinking it was 2002/03. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Rob: I only have accurate, what I would call precision measurements, since 2011/2012. For the 10 seasons since then through 2020/21 I've averaged 53.8 inches per season. From memory and observations of 2001/02 through 2010/11 I would guess those 10 seasons averaged out pretty similar. Some epic winters in there and a few real stinkers. Either 2002/03, 2009/10 or 2010/11 were at or near 100 inches for the season. I'm thinking it was 2002/03. Nice. Don't say you "only" have accurate records from 2011/2012. You have accurate records and over time your data will grow. I'll be moving at some point in the future so I'll have to start over in a new location. It is what it is, which is better than nothing IMO. 02/03 was a solid winter, I had 92" in New Windsor, down near the Hudson, that season but I should note my measuring was not a accurate as it is now. Either way, a solid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1.2” is the total here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Nice 1-2 inches this morning, pretty to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 The big temp drop has not commenced here yet, actually bounced up to 33 at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Sitting at 12° at 1:00 I would think with a solid snow pack right now, calm winds and clear skies tonight, there should be plenty of sub zero readings in the HV. Dare I say some in the area take a run at -10°? I'm guessing -5° for tomorrow morning where I am. @Juliancoltonis usually pretty good at calling these nighttime lows. Your thoughts Julian when you have a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Sitting at 12° at 1:00 I would think with a solid snow pack right now, calm winds and clear skies tonight, there should be plenty of sub zero readings in the HV. Dare I say some in the area take a run at -10°? I'm guessing -5° for tomorrow morning where I am. @Juliancoltonis usually pretty good at calling these nighttime lows. Your thoughts Julian when you have a chance. I was actually thinking fairly pedestrian again. The models keep the northerly winds going through the night at 4-6 kts, enough to prevent most places from decoupling. The HRRR tries to calm things down toward 6z, but it's touch and go with pressure falls occurring to the south. We do have a pretty good jumping-off point though - I'm sitting at 16, down from a high of 17. With otherwise good conditions as you pointed out, it wouldn't take more than a couple hours of slack winds to really nosedive, so I will leave that possibility open. I'll go -5F for me and -3F for you. Our spread last Sunday was 3 degrees, so tighten that by a degree or so per the slightly breezier conditions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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