LibertyBell Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 hours ago, wdrag said: I don't study these situations in quite the detail as I did when working NWS, but... some of the factors are probably related to less qpf up north, some valley reports?, and timing best lift just south in our I84 area...maintaining enough dendrites to make it to the ground. Less lift=less chance keeping all snow and more sleet-freezing rain in the similar thermal profile. I didn't check all the ice data but in my opinion, the GFS/NAM total positive snow depth change worked better than the EC. The EC also missed the icing down into Sussex County higher terrain and the Poconos. US models triumphed inside 84 hours. As an aside: I was driving an ambulance (volunteer WTFAS) in the heavier snow band around 7P last evening and the snow reflection off the strobe blue and red light was very very cool. Patient lived. Thanks Walt. I saw a report of about 0.1" icing from Sussex NJ and there was a report of 5.6" of snow from some town in the Southern Poconos and also near Altoona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Mya see a surprise 1/2-1" of snow parts of the I84 corridor down to just north of Philly Friday afternoon-evening as a weak area of low pressure possibly scoots through NJ. also fwiw: My guess is up to around an inch of snow in parts of the Poconos this Thursday morning. Wild solutions for the day after Thanksgiving into that holiday weekend. Many pointing to a heavy precip event with quite a bit of wind along the coast. Far tooo early to know the flavor, rain, ice or snow and how far north-west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 4 hours ago, wdrag said: Mya see a surprise 1/2-1" of snow parts of the I84 corridor down to just north of Philly Friday afternoon-evening as a weak area of low pressure possibly scoots through NJ. also fwiw: My guess is up to around an inch of snow in parts of the Poconos this Thursday morning. Wild solutions for the day after Thanksgiving into that holiday weekend. Many pointing to a heavy precip event with quite a bit of wind along the coast. Far tooo early to know the flavor, rain, ice or snow and how far north-west. Continues with the 12z/17 HRRR. There is hope for some convective snow tomorrow afternoon-evening and also noting spotty convective snow possible mid afternoon today across NNJ/NE PA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 I just drove down to LaGuardia to pick my kid up and there's random flurries from central Westchester all the way down to the airport 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 Drove out here to South Bend today, 84 just east of Scranton was a skating rink this morning around the 7am hour. There were snow showers that were melting and refreezing on the road. As a result there were numerous cars and trucks off the road as it had not been treated. My ass was around a 9 on the Pucker scale. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Drove out here to South Bend today, 84 just east of Scranton was a skating rink this morning around the 7am hour. There were snow showers that were melting and refreezing on the road. As a result there were numerous cars and trucks off the road as it had not been treated. My ass was around a 9 on the Pucker scale. Glad to hear you made it there ok (just white knuckles on the steering wheel). Enjoy the time with your family. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 12 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Glad to hear you made it there ok (just white knuckles on the steering wheel). Enjoy the time with your family. Thanks. My son who graduated from here is flying in tonight from Texas with his girlfriend. It’ll be a cold but fun weekend. My youngest told me this week he’s starting to study now for the GMAT and hoping to get into ND in ‘24. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: Thanks. My son who graduated from here is flying in tonight from Texas with his girlfriend. It’ll be a cold but fun weekend. My youngest told me this week he’s starting to study now for the GMAT and try to get into ND in ‘24. Congratulations on your son’s graduation and your youngest determinations . Wishing both of them great success 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Drove out here to South Bend today, 84 just east of Scranton was a skating rink this morning around the 7am hour. There were snow showers that were melting and refreezing on the road. As a result there were numerous cars and trucks off the road as it had not been treated. My ass was around a 9 on the Pucker scale. That road sucks in good weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Good Friday morning, Nov 18. Still no further widespread snow-ice events consistently multi modeled for our entire I84 corridor membership before December. However... PA and NJ from just north of Philly northward to the I84 corridor inclusive of Allentown-Scranton, nw NJ and maybe even to CT will see a period or two of snow showers between 4PM and midnight today. Road conditions could quickly deteriorate from wet to slightly snow covered and slippery during the evening drive time. Snowfall will be variable from a trace to around 1 inch, most of it in a one or two hour period. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather and road conditions. Added one example of modeled areal coverage late today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 8 hours ago, Hitman said: That road sucks in good weather. Agree. Have you ever driven out I-80/90 out here though? When you get to the Ohio/Indiana border you swear you've gone back in time. The toll booth in Indiana is 5 mph for ezpass and the road itself is riddled with weeds and different types of pavement. It does get better as you travel further into Indiana though but that first stretch is something else for an interstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 It's a snow globe hear near South Bend like at Ralphie's house on Christmas! Or Kevin's house when his dumbass mother finally makes it home on Christmas morning! Always love seeing some lake effect...when I'm not driving! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 I hope we get some of those snow showers this afternoon, headed to HersheyPark for the weekend, would be cool for snow to be falling when we get there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Agree. Have you ever driven out I-80/90 out here though? When you get to the Ohio/Indiana border you swear you've gone back in time. The toll booth in Indiana is 5 mph for ezpass and the road itself is riddled with weeds and different types of pavement. It does get better as you travel further into Indiana though but that first stretch is something else for an interstate. My favorite part of that road was the signs every 3 miles warning of the horrible road conditions…probably spent more $ on the signs than they would have spent on pothole filler lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Good Friday morning, Nov 18. Still no further widespread snow-ice events consistently multi modeled for our entire I84 corridor membership before December. However... PA and NJ from just north of Philly northward to the I84 corridor inclusive of Allentown-Scranton, nw NJ and maybe even to CT will see a period or two of snow showers between 4PM and midnight today. Road conditions could quickly deteriorate from wet to slightly snow covered and slippery during the evening drive time. Snowfall will be variable from a trace to around 1 inch, most of it in a one or two hour period. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather and road conditions. Added one example of modeled areal coverage late today. Wow how much in that dark blue area near I-80 in NE PA south of Scranton? 1" in 2 hours? That could cause traffic problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wow how much in that dark blue area near I-80 in NE PA south of Scranton? 1" in 2 hours? That could cause traffic problems. I definitely expect travel problems Warren/Hunterdon/Sussex County west and north into east Central-ne PA, especially higher terrain. I think someone posted some where that most travel accidents occur with less than 2" in the forecast, or was that on the roads? Here's where an early SPS highlights issues and brings more attention to what I saw on media the past two days for this coming afternoons event (presuming HRRR modeling is correct). I'm sure many travelers are going to be surprised when they run into a band of moderate snow showers and temps falling to freezing during the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, wdrag said: I definitely expect travel problems Warren/Hunterdon/Sussex County west and north into east Central-ne PA, especially higher terrain. I think someone posted some where that most travel accidents occur with less than 2" in the forecast, or was that on the roads? Here's where an early SPS highlights issues and brings more attention to what I saw on media the past two days for this coming afternoons event (presuming HRRR modeling is correct). I'm sure many travelers are going to be surprised when they run into a band of moderate snow showers and temps falling to freezing during the snow. Yep because people drive like normal so the most accidents happen with under 3 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: Agree. Have you ever driven out I-80/90 out here though? When you get to the Ohio/Indiana border you swear you've gone back in time. The toll booth in Indiana is 5 mph for ezpass and the road itself is riddled with weeds and different types of pavement. It does get better as you travel further into Indiana though but that first stretch is something else for an interstate. nope, never had the pleasure. I drove out to denver in july but went from pittsburgh to louisville. But I've been on 84 through scranton a bunch of times and the approach to scranton has always bugged me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, Hitman said: nope, never had the pleasure. I drove out to denver in july but went from pittsburgh to louisville. But I've been on 84 through scranton a bunch of times and the approach to scranton has always bugged me out. I'm not a fan of that 81/84 area either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Kinda feel like any of those roads into PA arent great. 80 is a debacle whenever there is a lot of truck traffic when crossing the delaware. Same with the incline on 78 after crossing. Miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Kinda feel like any of those roads into PA arent great. 80 is a debacle whenever there is a lot of truck traffic when crossing the delaware. Same with the incline on 78 after crossing. Miserable. I think 80 in western PA isn't terrible but 80 across of most of Ohio is nice IMO with the three lanes and no trucks in the left lane although not all of them follow that rule but most do thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 Wantage NJ - this location in Sussex County. & elevation 740MSL. 0.4" brief moderate snow shower embedded in sw-. temp down to 30.6. Dewpoint up 10F to 28.9 so we still have a chance for one more shot of snow here in Sussex County prior to 915PM. Pavement mostly wet but slight acscums here and there. This snow will still be visible at sunrise Saturday..no rain and warming temps to wipe it out like Wednesday morning. Yea! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Quick wrap on accums last eve. CoCoRaHs reports. I know I had 0.5" in Wantage. Attached also the NAM3K 16 hours before the event(+snow depth change). Still looks basically not much to talk about through Nov, regarding any widespread hazardous winter wx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Anyone home? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Nope 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 hours ago, BxEngine said: Anyone home? Yes, did you forget your keys? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 38 minutes ago, Nibor said: Yes, did you forget your keys? Well, we all know that he's definitely missing something. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 6 hours ago, BxEngine said: Anyone home? 5 hours ago, gravitylover said: Nope 1 hour ago, Nibor said: Yes, did you forget your keys? 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: Well, we all know that he's definitely missing something. Good afternoon all. Amazing how two words can bring a thread to life. Happy Thanksgiving, as always …. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 23, 2022 Author Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, rclab said: Good afternoon all. Amazing how two words can bring a thread to life. Happy Thanksgiving, as always …. Happy Thanksgiving Rich 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Well, we all know that he's definitely missing something. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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