gravitylover Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Bx and Rob talking about old... Yo, Rc, straighten them boyz out would ya So what happens when you put a few inches of wet snow down then add a few inches of rain to it when the ground is frozen? It runs off, right? Anyone living at the bottom of a hill or along a watercourse is about to get washed away. FFG won't show it because it's been so dry it thinks the ground can absorb the new water. The guidance is wrong. It's going to get messy Monday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’m kinda surprised although I shouldn’t be at the number of folks that can’t fathom the huge swing in temps coming up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’m kinda surprised although I shouldn’t be at the number of folks that can’t fathom the huge swing in temps coming up. I’ve seen it before. I’ve taken Christmas lights down in the past and I could feel the humid, warm air roll in. It’s like an inverse of how the temperature drops like a rock on a cold, clear night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Youre old af i was in 8th grade. Our middle school overlooked the hudson, and i’d stare out and watch the ice every day lolOne of my favorite weather memories was looking out the window all morning in middle school on the morning of February 8, 1994.You don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 23 minutes ago, North and West said: One of my favorite weather memories was looking out the window all morning in middle school on the morning of February 8, 1994. You don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Already down to 4 here. We'll see where it ends up. Pipes are frozen despite my heat tape so that's a bummer. It was cool seeing my station pick up the pressure rise/fall couplet from the Tonga volcano. Nothing like places on the east coasts of water bodies, but still fascinating to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Already down to 4 here. We'll see where it ends up. Pipes are frozen despite my heat tape so that's a bummer. It was cool seeing my station pick up the pressure rise/fall couplet from the Tonga volcano. Nothing like places on the east coasts of water bodies, but still fascinating to me. I’ll have to check my station too, what time did you see it on yours? I see a dip, besides when looking in a mirror, around 12pm on my station. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Currently 5/-4 here.. should get below 0 tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: I’ll have to check my station too, what time did you see it on yours? I see a dip, besides when looking in a mirror, around 12pm on my station. I have it centered around 10:50 am. You can see the progression of the wave easily via the NY Mesonet... here are the stations at Buffalo (pressure wave at 10:35), Belleville (10:45), and Dover here in my neck of the woods (10:55). It loses a lot of amplitude as it moves away from the lakes and has to contend with terrain once again. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I have it centered around 10:50 am. You can see the progression of the wave easily via the NY Mesonet... here are the stations at Buffalo (pressure wave at 10:35), Belleville (10:45), and Dover here in my neck of the woods (10:55). It loses a lot of amplitude as it moves away from the lakes and has to contend with terrain once again. Interesting stuff. Here’s my station 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 29 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Interesting stuff. Here’s my station It's somewhere in there, if you squint your eyes. What's your refresh rate? You can *just* see it in my noisy 5-minute data. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It's somewhere in there, if you squint your eyes. What's your refresh rate? You can *just* see it in my noisy 5-minute data. I believe that mine is 5 minutes too. You mentioned the terrain before so I’m wondering what impact that may have had here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4° right now, I would hope I go below zero by morning to at least end my three year streak without a sub zero reading. SInce tomorrow night looks like a disaster snow wise, still hoping to walk away from this with 4 inches net, I'd at least like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Does anyone else get frost quakes in their yard during these cold nights? We get them every winter, very loud on the coldest nights, like last night. From what I've read about them they're nothing to be concerned about, but one of these mornings I'm expecting to see a crater in my backyard. Any insight would be appreciated if anyone has experienced them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 -2 in my area of the Poconos currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: I believe that mine is 5 minutes too. You mentioned the terrain before so I’m wondering what impact that may have had here. I'm definitely no expert on wave propagation. Then again, I'm no expert on any of the things I carry on about here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 39 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Does anyone else get frost quakes in their yard during these cold nights? We get them every winter, very loud on the coldest nights, like last night. From what I've read about them they're nothing to be concerned about, but one of these mornings I'm expecting to see a crater in my backyard. Any insight would be appreciated if anyone has experienced them. We had one last night, around 12:45 am. Then not related to that, a power outage at 5am. Power was out for around 2 1/2 hours. House cooled real fast with the temp at +5. Thank god for the manual override switch on my gas fireplace. Currently at +3 with a forecast low of -2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I'm definitely no expert on wave propagation. Then again, I'm no expert on any of the things I carry on about here... seen on the news before a satellite caught the underwater eruption. Pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njweathered Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Does anyone else get frost quakes in their yard during these cold nights? We get them every winter, very loud on the coldest nights, like last night. From what I've read about them they're nothing to be concerned about, but one of these mornings I'm expecting to see a crater in my backyard. Any insight would be appreciated if anyone has experienced them. here in Vernon, 1/15 around 1am. Always shocking. also have lots of black walnut trees here with frost cracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Frost quake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: Frost quake? Yeah, first I’ve never heard of that. I’ve had the house creak and pop on real cold nights. I’ve heard the ice on the Wallkill pop, that’ll get your attention, but frost quake is a first for me but was an interesting little read this morning. Sitting right at 0 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Warning for 5-9” in the Catskills best guesses as to what I see here: 5” snow, some sleet, .05-.1 of ZR, some rain Monday morning, (probably) lose power from gusts in the 40-45 range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Got to -1° this morning, thank God the two year 11 month streak, for me anyway, is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 0 was indeed the low here. Todays model runs appear to be just a touch cooler with more frozen precipitation so it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out for folks in this thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: 0 was indeed the low here. Todays model runs appear to be just a touch cooler with more frozen precipitation so it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out for folks in this thread. -4 here. As an aside, the westward-moving pressure wavefront around midnight was quite a bit more pronounced around here than the first perturbation, might be worth checking your station again. I had a 1.7 mb drop in 5 minutes between 12:04 and 12:09. Here's the Walkill mesonet station with fully a 2-mb drop. I don't even care about the storm anymore. This stuff is way more fun, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: -4 here. As an aside, the westward-moving pressure wavefront around midnight was quite a bit more pronounced around here than the first perturbation, might be worth checking your station again. I had a 1.7 mb drop in 5 minutes between 12:04 and 12:09. Here's the Walkill mesonet station with fully a 2-mb drop. I don't even care about the storm anymore. This stuff is way more fun, lol Wow, cool stuff! Here’s my chart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: Wow, cool stuff! Here’s my chart Nice, that's an awesome example. Biggest one I've seen from last night (twss) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I think folks west of the river are in for a nice front-end thump. Model trends have been good for speeding up precip onset and delaying the mid-level warmth a bit. Wouldn't be shocked to see someone in the OC get 6" before the mix. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I think folks west of the river are in for a nice front-end thump. Model trends have been good for speeding up precip onset and delaying the mid-level warmth a bit. Wouldn't be shocked to see someone in the OC get 6" before the mix. What timeframe are you thinking about the onset for our area? Dewpts jumped +5 in the last 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: What timeframe are you thinking about the onset for our area? Dewpts jumped +5 in the last 3 hours. Column is well-saturated by 9 pm on the HRRR. Maybe flakes start flying around 8? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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