CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: I dunno, it only got to about 16 when I was out and about this afternoon so 20 below avg is pretty significant. The high of 16 was impressive. The low which is my current reading of 7 not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Meh, it's cold enough that the heat is running more than I want it to. That's cold enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: The high of 16 was impressive. The low which is my current reading of 7 not so much. Our lows are always unremarkable in CAA regimes... we're far enough south that we need radiational cooling to get us below zero. This was a plenty cold airmass, with Albany's 12z 850mb temp of -26.3C falling just a few tenths short of the daily record. That's how you get impressively cold highs. In an ideal world, this cold high would park itself for a few days as we radiate down to like -15F the first post-fropa night, and then moderate a couple ticks with each passing day. Instead, we don't even get one good radiating night before the airmass gets usurped by + 850 anomalies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 A low of 6 but up to 12 already. I Really don’t know what to make of overnight model runs for Sunday-Monday. I may take a 24 hour break before even bothering to look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Low of 7, 8 now. As for the storm I still say anything is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18f here. Happy there’s a storm. Where it goes nobody knows atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Low of 7, 8 now. As for the storm I still say anything is on the table. The 6z gfs is rain to the Finger Lakes lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 We need to get the Friday storm through IMO for the models to start to dial in better, which way that is remains to be seen. It was pointed out last week that we were entering an even more volatile time for the models and expect big swings but many must missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The 6z gfs is rain to the Finger Lakes lolIn the main thread, since people are all over the place geographically, is there any real guidance yet apart from model noise for North Jersey?Thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, North and West said: In the main thread, since people are all over the place geographically, is there any real guidance yet apart from model noise for North Jersey? Thanks. At this stage, we're all pretty much in the same boat. All model guidance has been trending toward a more amplified storm, and a mixed-precip event is currently favored over an all-snow one. As Rob says though, it's a volatile upper-air pattern, so changes are likely. Climo and the cold antecedent airmass argue for at least some accumulating snow before any change to rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 At this stage, we're all pretty much in the same boat. All model guidance has been trending toward a more amplified storm, and a mixed-precip event is currently favored over an all-snow one. As Rob says though, it's a volatile upper-air pattern, so changes are likely. Climo and the cold antecedent airmass argue for at least some accumulating snow before any change to rain.Thanks! Some of the storms mentioned that were bad for the coast - March 2017, January 1994, maybe even February 2014 - had some nice snows at MMU. Every storm is different so I guess we’re just at . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Snow accums projections given current guidance for Mid Hudson Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, North and West said: Thanks! Some of the storms mentioned that were bad for the coast - March 2017, January 1994, maybe even February 2014 - had some nice snows at MMU. Yeah, some of the best storms have sleet or mid-level dryslot issues nearby. I had mixing in all three of those events. The Euro isn't far from something like that, albeit with a more progressive system overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Preliminary based on current model output, I say 4-8 inches up here with a lot of sleet on top then dry slot. Subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 hours ago, North and West said: Thanks! Some of the storms mentioned that were bad for the coast - March 2017, January 1994, maybe even February 2014 - had some nice snows at MMU. Every storm is different so I guess we’re just at . Not sure why that always comes up for February 2014. It was great here (2/13-14/2014). I think that was a storm where the south shore didn't fare as well, but a huge dump of snow here ~15" followed by a little freezing rain. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Everyone up here ready for another sleet fest Sunday night? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Its a base builder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Its a base builder. Yeah, good snow preserver too. Any few inches of snow we get will be protected for a while especially with the current pattern holding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: Everyone up here ready for another sleet fest Sunday night? bring it! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 52 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Yeah, good snow preserver too. Any few inches of snow we get will be protected for a while especially with the current pattern holding net gain. I'll take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Honest question, because I’d love if everyone’s name would say where they’re located (because I’m in Morristown, which is vastly different than Putnam County, Toms River, or Eastern Long Island, but I digress) when they pontificate… but is it all right to ask yet what the heck is going to happen Sunday evening into Monday? I’ve had a lot of storms here that are wildly different versus the city and Long Island (March 6, 2018, February 5, 2001, March 1994, I go on), so I’m not sure if I should expect rain, slush, or even a little snow. Sounds like wind will occur. Thanks, guys. And please no insane Mercer Lake commentary.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Some past storms being referenced (particularly March 1994) still had a decent amount of snow not far north and west of the city. At this point I would assume it’s still too early to consider possible analogs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 hours ago, White Gorilla said: Everyone up here ready for another sleet fest Sunday night? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 National Weather Service New York NY 346 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 CTZ005>008-NYZ067-068-070-141030- /O.NEW.KOKX.WC.Y.0001.220115T0500Z-220115T1500Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Orange-Putnam-Northern Westchester- 346 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills from 15 below zero to as low as 20 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York. * WHEN...From midnight Friday night to 10 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 With decent consistency from the models today, it's getting pretty hard to imagine any big snowfall totals east of the river on Monday. The eastern Cats could really clean up if the mid-levels are more like the GFS and less like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Upton’s first call snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 My p&c here is 3-5” snow/sleet before changeover. Not insignificant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Would like to believe I can still squeeze 6” before the mess begins but that’s becoming a reach at this point. Better opportunities ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Upton has me getting 4-8” on p/c. Ehh I highly doubt it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yeah I agree. I'm looking more for 2-3 followed rather quickly by sleet, freezing rain, eventually rain and then hopefully a nice prolonged dry slot. If I end up with 6 inches of snow as the NWS map now has me for I will be shocked but pleased. I'd place the odds at 6 plus at 20% right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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