IrishRob17 Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Upton mentioned a few hours of heavy snow tomorrow, should be fun to watch again in daylight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Someone on a line between Warwick and Pittsfield will see a foot IMO. Impressive dynamics throughout the column, high PWATs, classic crosshair signature. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Binghamton NWS honking for up to a foot from the Poconos to the Catskills. Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 401 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 NYZ046-057-062-PAZ040-048-072-120915- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0005.220312T0600Z-220313T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0005.220312T0600Z-220313T0000Z/ Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Pike-Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Oneonta, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Damascus, Equinunk, Milford, and Honesdale 401 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Northern Wayne, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. In New York, Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow could produce snowfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour for a time late tonight through midday Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorist to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadways, and traffic conditions. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 57 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Someone on a line between Warwick and Pittsfield will see a foot IMO. Impressive dynamics throughout the column, high PWATs, classic crosshair signature. This thing will be moving quickly, but as you mentioned, the dynamics will give a few lucky ones a nice event. We’ll see how it pans out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: This thing will be moving quickly, but as you mentioned, the dynamics will give a few lucky ones a nice event. We’ll see how it pans out. I suspect measurements will be all over the place. Ratios will be solid for a while, likely better than 10:1, but sun angle and warm ground will play tricks. Someone will measure 4" on their driveway while their neighbor with a measuring board calls in 8", and some nerd who clears and measures three times will get into KU territory. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I suspect measurements will be all over the place. Ratios will be solid for a while, likely better than 10:1, but sun angle and warm ground will play tricks. Someone will measure 4" on their driveway while their neighbor with a measuring board calls in 8", and some nerd who clears and measures three times will get into KU territory. Hopefully there won’t be so much paste with the winds and cold temps. Bad recipe for tree and power issues. Overnight Saturday could be tough for some especially up our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Hopefully there won’t be so much paste with the winds and cold temps. Bad recipe for tree and power issues. Overnight Saturday could be tough for some especially up our way. Violently agree. Unlike the other day when the temp stayed right around 32 we’ll have dropping temps with this storm. I suspect we will have a bit less pasting this time but something to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Good morning I NW & NE friends. I found and could not resist recording this morning, on my sunny UHI blessed block. Tomorrow we will experience a bomb cyclone ( media verbiage ) and a day of explosive posting ( my verbiage ). Sunday, regardless of what is or isn’t on our ground, I will check to see if the brave daffodil made it, next week for all of us, ( my hope/prayer ) sun and peace. As always …. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Could be to cover the higher elevations in the area. My thought anyway. Probably, but now that the models are trending away from double digits information this area I’m assuming the WSW I’m under would get switched for a 4-7” WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Probably, but now that the models are trending away from double digits information this area I’m assuming the WSW I’m under would get switched for a 4-7” WWA They might, my thought is they keep the warning up and tomorrow morning they might scale it back if the short range models back off after looking at the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 44 minutes ago, rclab said: Good morning I NW & NE friends. I found and could not resist recording this morning, on my sunny UHI blessed block. Tomorrow we will experience a bomb cyclone ( media verbiage ) and a day of explosive posting ( my verbiage ). Sunday, regardless of what is or isn’t on our ground, I will check to see if the brave daffodil made it, next week for all of us, ( my hope/prayer ) sun and peace. As always …. Afternoon Rich. Mine are shooting up, the ones in the south facing beds, no buds or flowers yet but it’s coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Upgraded to a Warning, don’t recall the last time that happened. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 WINTER STORM WARNING for Orange. We went from Winter Weather Advisory straight to Winter Storm Warning. Skipped right over Watch due to the timing. Boom! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: Upgraded to a Warning, don’t recall the last time that happened. We posted the IDENTICAL time. lol Go Army! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, hawkeye said: We posted the IDENTICAL time. lol Go Army! Beat Navy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Upgraded to a Warning, don’t recall the last time that happened. Did they upgrade for rockland county?Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, nycemt123 said: Did they upgrade for rockland county? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Rockland has a WWA for 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, nycemt123 said: Did they upgrade for rockland county? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Negative. Uptown calling for 4-8” here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Upgraded to a Warning, don’t recall the last time that happened. Me neither, and just 1 inch above warning criteria for snowfall. maybe they are going with the high end maps from this morning. They haven’t updated those maps as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, hudsonvalley21 said: Me neither, and just 1 inch above warning criteria for snowfall. I see they have you at 3-7 with 4-8 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I see they have you at 3-7 with 4-8 here Well they went with the colder 12z runs. Now with wind gusts up to 40 in the point n click forecast. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Orange County. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 18z NAM up-ticked from the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Me neither, and just 1 inch above warning criteria for snowfall. maybe they are going with the high end maps from this morning. They haven’t updated those maps as of yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Looks like Upton is riding the NAM. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 420 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Coupled jet structure indicated by the models supports rapidly deepening low pres tracking thru the region on Sat. With the 12Z NAM and GFS sfc low tracks nearly identical, went close to the 12Z NAM for the bulk of the storm. Conceptual model for how the sys evolves is rain, changing to a mix of rain, sleet, and snow, then to all snow from nw to se before ending late Sat aftn/eve. Strengthening nwly winds as the low deepens during the day, with the gusty winds and strong caa lasting thru Sat ngt. At least some refreezing on surfaces by aftn into the eve. One of the main challenges is how fast the pcpn changes over. With an arctic airmass flowing into the region, the transition is expected to be fairly quick. The exact track will determine the speed with which the caa begins. Any change in the timing of the transition will impact snowfall amounts. Based on the progged track and timing of the 12Z suite of models, snowfall amounts have been increased across the area. Orange county has been upgraded to a wrng, and an advy was issued sewd to NYC and swrn CT. Even in areas that do not average 3 inches of snow, the added hazards of refreezing and high winds warranted the advy. Elsewhere, a winds advy was issued until midnight. The snow, where amounts are expected to be lesser, and refreezing hazards, have been included in the wind advy. At least a coating is expected in these areas attm. A wind advy may need to be issued for after 00Z for wrn portions of the area when the winter wx advisories end. Those spots most susceptible to the need for a wind advy are east of the Hudson River. Wind chills fall into the single digits Sat ngt across the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Potential for 2"+/hr rates around midday tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 21 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Potential for 2"+/hr rates around midday tomorrow. Somebody’s gonna get smacked for 2-3 hours or so. This is gonna blitz everyone (in and out in 6-10 hours) but the winners are the ones that get into the 2+ inch/hour bands 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 And I hear the peepers down along the river for the first time this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 12, 2022 Author Share Posted March 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Tomorrow just might become the largest single event snowfall for me this winter. Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 33 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Tomorrow just might become the largest single event snowfall for me this winter. Figures. It would be an underachiever if it didn't. Wednesday raised the bar to 4.0" imby. That's close to the low end of reasonable expectations for tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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