Interior NW & NE Burbs 2022

[Hitman]

Up to 2.5”.  Very nice.

[White Gorilla]

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Kinda shocked the “snowier” models were correct tbh. 

As am I but it’s a lesson that those spiking footballs one way of the other should learn, but they won’t. 4.1” looks to do it here now that it’s very light and skies are brightening. 

[LaGrangewx]

Very surprised here. Big time over performer. Eyeballing 4-5” of what looks like pure fluff.

[hudsonvalley21]

3.80” here. Light snow currently.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4.0 inches on the nose. 26° and light snow continues. A very pleasant surprise.

[gravitylover]

Snowing again but it's completely different snow, needles and mini crystals instead of fatties. It's compressing the earlier snow down and filling in the spaces. Too bad it's gonna rain this week.

[LaGrangewx]

Update. Absolute blower pow here. Lightest snow I can remember in quite some time. Feels like I’m shoveling nothing. Over 4 inches and might be the biggest of the year go figure. These are my favorite snowfalls these high ratio surprise over-performers. Won’t stick around long tho. 

[LaGrangewx]

Just saw a PNS report of 3.9 near Poughkeepsie on .13 water. So this stuff is ~30-1. 

[IrishRob17]

40 minutes ago, LaGrangewx said:

Just saw a PNS report of 3.9 near Poughkeepsie on .13 water. So this stuff is ~30-1. 

4.1” melted down to .19 so around a 1:21.5 ratio here. 

[gravitylover]

@wdrag I saw you mention measuring technique and timing earlier today. Had I waited until it was over I would have had to report just over an inch but since I hit it before compaction, while it was still cold with little sun impact, I had between 2.5 and 5" depending on surface type and exposure. Right at the end there was a burst of tiny grains and crystals that compacted everything and then the sun beat it up right after. This was absolutely better than the minimal amount that "proper" technique would show and I'll count it as 4" in my annual total.

 

[Juliancolton]

43 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

@wdrag I saw you mention measuring technique and timing earlier today. Had I waited until it was over I would have had to report just over an inch but since I hit it before compaction, while it was still cold with little sun impact, I had between 2.5 and 5" depending on surface type and exposure. Right at the end there was a burst of tiny grains and crystals that compacted everything and then the sun beat it up right after. This was absolutely better than the minimal amount that "proper" technique would show and I'll count it as 4" in my annual total.

 

You're supposed to report new snow as the greatest depth since the last observation. What you did was correct (well, it would have been if you used a measuring board ).

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

47 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

@wdrag I saw you mention measuring technique and timing earlier today. Had I waited until it was over I would have had to report just over an inch but since I hit it before compaction, while it was still cold with little sun impact, I had between 2.5 and 5" depending on surface type and exposure. Right at the end there was a burst of tiny grains and crystals that compacted everything and then the sun beat it up right after. This was absolutely better than the minimal amount that "proper" technique would show and I'll count it as 4" in my annual total.

 

According to the latest guidelines you take the maximum depth of the snow that fell during the calendar day.

And yes to the snowboard as i see Julian already mentiomed. 

[Hitman]

Great day.  Would’ve been disappointed for 3” if it was supposed to be something more, but nice overperformer.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

10° for the low this morning.

I'm guessing the consecutive days with snow cover will end on Friday at 42 days, an impressive streak for a period that only saw near normal snowfall during the period, 23.9 inches, where I am.

The often talked about Torch looks to be short lived and sporadic, already the end of February looking like back to normal. It would be nice if the last week of February to the last week of March could produce a nice snowy pattern for the HV, if it does I'll be ready for spring by April 1.

[White Gorilla]

34 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

10° for the low this morning.

I'm guessing the consecutive days with snow cover will end on Friday at 42 days, an impressive streak for a period that only saw near normal snowfall during the period, 23.9 inches, where I am.

The often talked about Torch looks to be short lived and sporadic, already the end of February looking like back to normal. It would be nice if the last week of February to the last week of March could produce a nice snowy pattern for the HV, if it does I'll be ready for spring by April 1.

Another March 14 2017 would be nice 

[gravitylover]

I just want a short period with an actual snowpack, not just this 2" uselessness. I want one night where I need to be outside shoveling while the storm is doin' its thing around me. Then it should go right to 70° and bike/golf season

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

16 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Another March 14 2017 would be nice 

Or the whole month of March 2018 (43.4 inches with another 6.4 in April) with the March 7 2018 repeat.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

8 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I just want a short period with an actual snowpack, not just this 2" uselessness. I want one night where I need to be outside shoveling while the storm is doin' its thing around me. Then it should go right to 70° and bike/golf season

No that won't do it for me.

[gravitylover]

It's either an emotional one shot wonder boost or a prolonged hassle with associated mud season to follow. If the hassle is feet of snow and a near record late season snowpack I'm in but a couple of 4-6" rapid meltoffs would be a waste.

[BxEngine]

3 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Another March 14 2017 would be nice 

Ill take any storm that screws up paddys day and sends rob into a rage. 

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Ill take any storm that screws up paddys day and sends rob into a rage. 

I 'weenied' you, I hope that you are deeply offended.

[hudsonvalley21]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I 'weenied' you, I hope that you are deeply offended.

I’ll embarrass him and show one of his finest photos 

 

[rclab]

10 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Ill take any storm that screws up paddys day and sends rob into a rage. 

 

10 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I 'weenied' you, I hope that you are deeply offended.

Good afternoon BxE and Irish. It may be wise to recant That weather wish before the next ski trip. As always ….

 

[Juliancolton]

4 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Ill take any storm that screws up paddys day and sends rob into a rage. 

You should have spelled it the other way to really seal the deal

[IrishRob17]

8 minutes ago, rclab said:

 

Good afternoon BxE and Irish. It may be wise to to recant That weather wish before the next ski trip. As always ….

 

Hi there Rich, @BxEnginewalks with a constant limp

6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

You should have spelled it the other way to really seal the deal

LMAO, I was going to compliment him on the correct spelling too

[hudsonvalley21]

For the overnight hours coming up.

upton’s AFD

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Sheared shortwave energy races into the eastern Great Lakes tonight, ahead of northern stream shortwave pivoting through the Upper Great Lakes. In response, gradually deepening low pressure/s track from the Ohio River valley this evening up through Western NY tonight, with trailing strong cold front approaching the region, bringing a period of strong to damaging wind gusts and moderate to heavy rain tonight into Friday morning. Ahead of the cold front, models are in good agreement with a strong llj (70-80kt@950mb) developing across eastern coastal areas late tonight into early Friday morning. As is typical for this time of year with water temps in the lower 40s, the challenge is how much of the llj will be able to mix down in a strongly inverted low-level environment. GFS/NAM have remained fairly consistent over the last 48 hrs, with GFS indicating a typically slightly deeper mixed layer, with potential for 50 kt gusts across LI/SE CT, while NAM more strongly inverted indicating gust potential of 40 kt. NBM has trended slightly upward with gust magnitude from 24 hrs ago, with 4.0 indicating 45-50kt gust potential for LI and SE CT, while version 4.1 continuing to showing a 45-55 kt potential for LI/CT. HRRR 10m wind gust potential, which has show to be skillful (albeit a little high) indicating potential for 55-60kt gusts for LI and SE CT as well. SPC HREF indicating high potential for 30kt sustained winds across LI/SE CT as well (not common), supporting the strong to damaging wind gust potential. Based on the model consistency and trends over the last few days, confidence is high in a strong wind (wind advisory) event tonight across the entire area, including NYC (45-55mph gusts), with moderate to high confidence in high winds gusts (55-65mph) for LI and SE CT under the core of the 75-80 kt llj. The timing for peak strong to high wind gusts continues to center around 6-12z Fri. Despite the strong inversion, based on the slight upward trend on NBM 4.0 wind gust guidance towards the stronger NBM 4.1 guidance, the strong signal from CAM guidance, and the anomalous strength of the llj, will upgrade to a high wind warning for all of LI and SE CT. Elsewhere will issue a wind advisory for strong wind gust potential ahead of and immediately behind the cold front, with highest threat along the coast and higher elevations. In terms of heavy rain potential, deep layered lift of a +3-4 STD PWAT gulf moisture plume, and weak elevated instability, will present potential for a 3-6 hr window of moderate to heavy rain tonight. The limiting factor for heavy rainfall amounts will be quick movement of the cold front through the area, racing ahead of shortwave forcing. Medium range ensemble spread generally from 1/2 to 1 inches of rainfall for city/coast, with 1 to 1 1/4 across interior (particularly S CT). SPC HREF indicating a similar distribution, with signal for enhancement along the north shore of LI, interior S CT, and hill terrain. These areas of enhancement are consistent with SBU research on standing gravity wave perturbation precip enhancement in southerly flow events. Steadier rainfall develops from west to east this evening through midnight, with narrow bands of heavy rain indicated by CAMs late tonight with llj and along/ahead of cold front. Rain will quickly come to and end early Friday morning from west to east with cold frontal passage. A few wet snowflakes possible across far NW hills before ending, with no accum. The cold front pushes through Fri AM, with winds shifting to W/NW. Potential for wind advisory gusts of 40-50mph Friday morning areawide with wind shift as lapse rates rapidly steepen/deepen. Gusts should settle into the 30 to 35 mph range for the afternoon. It will be drying out with sunshine for the afternoon, and temps dropping through the day (50s AM to 30s PM) with modified polar airmass advecting in. High pressure noses in Friday Night, with potential for a window of radiational cooling well down into into the teens across pine barrens and interior, 20s elsewhere. High clouds and return flow begin to increase towards Sat morning, with rising temps likely along the coast, ahead of Ontario clipper s

 

[IrishRob17]

26 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

For the overnight hours coming up.

upton’s AFD

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Sheared shortwave energy races into the eastern Great Lakes tonight, ahead of northern stream shortwave pivoting through the Upper Great Lakes. In response, gradually deepening low pressure/s track from the Ohio River valley this evening up through Western NY tonight, with trailing strong cold front approaching the region, bringing a period of strong to damaging wind gusts and moderate to heavy rain tonight into Friday morning. Ahead of the cold front, models are in good agreement with a strong llj (70-80kt@950mb) developing across eastern coastal areas late tonight into early Friday morning. As is typical for this time of year with water temps in the lower 40s, the challenge is how much of the llj will be able to mix down in a strongly inverted low-level environment. GFS/NAM have remained fairly consistent over the last 48 hrs, with GFS indicating a typically slightly deeper mixed layer, with potential for 50 kt gusts across LI/SE CT, while NAM more strongly inverted indicating gust potential of 40 kt. NBM has trended slightly upward with gust magnitude from 24 hrs ago, with 4.0 indicating 45-50kt gust potential for LI and SE CT, while version 4.1 continuing to showing a 45-55 kt potential for LI/CT. HRRR 10m wind gust potential, which has show to be skillful (albeit a little high) indicating potential for 55-60kt gusts for LI and SE CT as well. SPC HREF indicating high potential for 30kt sustained winds across LI/SE CT as well (not common), supporting the strong to damaging wind gust potential. Based on the model consistency and trends over the last few days, confidence is high in a strong wind (wind advisory) event tonight across the entire area, including NYC (45-55mph gusts), with moderate to high confidence in high winds gusts (55-65mph) for LI and SE CT under the core of the 75-80 kt llj. The timing for peak strong to high wind gusts continues to center around 6-12z Fri. Despite the strong inversion, based on the slight upward trend on NBM 4.0 wind gust guidance towards the stronger NBM 4.1 guidance, the strong signal from CAM guidance, and the anomalous strength of the llj, will upgrade to a high wind warning for all of LI and SE CT. Elsewhere will issue a wind advisory for strong wind gust potential ahead of and immediately behind the cold front, with highest threat along the coast and higher elevations. In terms of heavy rain potential, deep layered lift of a +3-4 STD PWAT gulf moisture plume, and weak elevated instability, will present potential for a 3-6 hr window of moderate to heavy rain tonight. The limiting factor for heavy rainfall amounts will be quick movement of the cold front through the area, racing ahead of shortwave forcing. Medium range ensemble spread generally from 1/2 to 1 inches of rainfall for city/coast, with 1 to 1 1/4 across interior (particularly S CT). SPC HREF indicating a similar distribution, with signal for enhancement along the north shore of LI, interior S CT, and hill terrain. These areas of enhancement are consistent with SBU research on standing gravity wave perturbation precip enhancement in southerly flow events. Steadier rainfall develops from west to east this evening through midnight, with narrow bands of heavy rain indicated by CAMs late tonight with llj and along/ahead of cold front. Rain will quickly come to and end early Friday morning from west to east with cold frontal passage. A few wet snowflakes possible across far NW hills before ending, with no accum. The cold front pushes through Fri AM, with winds shifting to W/NW. Potential for wind advisory gusts of 40-50mph Friday morning areawide with wind shift as lapse rates rapidly steepen/deepen. Gusts should settle into the 30 to 35 mph range for the afternoon. It will be drying out with sunshine for the afternoon, and temps dropping through the day (50s AM to 30s PM) with modified polar airmass advecting in. High pressure noses in Friday Night, with potential for a window of radiational cooling well down into into the teens across pine barrens and interior, 20s elsewhere. High clouds and return flow begin to increase towards Sat morning, with rising temps likely along the coast, ahead of Ontario clipper s

 

Here's the hour before that one.  We know how these maps usually are overdone, lets hope that the case here too.

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

A sad day for all, but I'm calling an end to the consecutive days with snow cover streak today at 41 consecutive days.

Maybe 50% coverage right now but by tomorrow it should be just the piles and deep shaded areas.

It wasn't an impressive streak for depth or even quality of the snow cover through most of the days but at least it made most of January and the first half of February look like Winter. Add in the slightly below average temperatures for the period which are becoming harder and harder to achieve in our current new winter environment and I can at least say I've had 6 weeks of winter.

It's also 2 days since I've blocked Nostranus19 and yet I still see his posts on so many other quotes I'm wondering what the point was. A symbolic gesture at best I suppose.

[crossbowftw3]

Some incredibly persistent patches of snow remain in and around my yard this morning. Hard to fathom most of those stick around by the end of the day today, much less the first several days of next week.

 

I am personally very much wondering what kind of last act this winter will provide for us, considering I’m absolutely not going to hit my average for this winter (MSV average ~65 inches, not even 1/3 of that has fallen to this point) barring a series of miracles in March