Juliancolton Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 38 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I appreciate the cold and semi snow cover. I just want 1-2 winter storm warnings and 6+ inch snowfalls, ideally one of those a foot plus. I realize there have been winters when we have done a lot worse, but it's a bit tougher when the screw zones are so loud. The rest of Feb looks like decent potential for us, fingers crossed. I just want a couple mashed potatoes storms for photography. The windy crap that ends up in rock crevices and stacked up against fences... meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I'm not looking forward to this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Down a bit from a high of 47... thought I had an outside shot at 50, but that ship has probably sailed. Spring cancel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 26 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Down a bit from a high of 47... thought I had an outside shot at 50, but that ship has probably sailed. Spring cancel. Wanted to get some more snow melting in the roof gutters before the rains set in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Down a bit from a high of 47... thought I had an outside shot at 50, but that ship has probably sailed. Spring cancel. Early install? Not liking what I see on the models but as you pointed out all that that QPF does not equate to accretion at a 1:1 ratio so we'll see. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 50° in Cortland Manor (Peekskill) right now. Not liking the model trends at all. I really hope the place my daughter works closes Friday otherwise I have to drive her and she opens at 6:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Winter storm watch now for .25-.5” and 1-3 of snow. At my lower elevation it’s likely closer to the .25” than the .5” but… Good thing is that there should be almost no wind factoring in so any outages probably wouldn’t last longer than 2-3 days at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Can this slide like 40 miles north? I doubt ill have any issues here but ill be away. and also 40 miles north gives lake placid at least a foot of snow… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: Can this slide like 40 miles north? I doubt ill have any issues here but ill be away. and also 40 miles north gives lake placid at least a foot of snow… Have a safe ride up and enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Watch swapped to an advisory for up to .25” but I doubt areas around here get away with only seeing that. Similar gradient to 12/29/19 showing up on meso models as well where I saw almost no ice, while 30-40 minutes and elevation saw up to .4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I dunno what to do with tomorrow. I have a cardiologist appt at 1 that I've been waiting 5 months for and the next availability is late March. I don't mind driving in shit weather all that much but most people are stupid and I can't have one of them take me out and ruin the only good car we have right now (that we just bought last month). I'm hoping the doc decides he doesn't want to travel either. NWS still has a couple tenths of ice here with temps in the low 20s by lunchtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 50° in Cortland Manor (Peekskill) right now. Not liking the model trends at all. I really hope the place my daughter works closes Friday otherwise I have to drive her and she opens at 6:30am.Inside of Cortland Manor it's roughly 150° so the 50° is probably leaking outside Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The relative hole in ZR accumulations represents my relatively lower elevation in Sullivan so well on the 12z NAM. Not like I’m complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I say the main roads will likely be ok, but side roads a gamble. The mains will be salted heavily. I think I will close the Animal Hospital mainly due to staff commuting/ many from Dutchess. You should check now and ask if the Dr had any other cancellations next week. That is a good way to get an appointment sooner than March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, DRVTS said: I say the main roads will likely be ok, but side roads a gamble. The mains will be salted heavily. I think I will close the Animal Hospital mainly due to staff commuting/ many from Dutchess. You should check now and ask if the Dr had any other cancellations next week. That is a good way to get an appointment sooner than March. Heh, look out the front window of your office, see that hill about a mile away? I'm just about at the top of it. It can be "interesting" going up and down when it gets slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 We're bumping right up against the threshold between nuisance ice and ice that starts causing problems. We can safely dispense with visions of crumpled transmission towers, but I think we're all well aware of how readily a few weak tree limbs can knock out power for days on end. With cold temps returning this weekend, I'll be checking my generator today to make sure it's ready to go. Start 'em if you got 'em. And not to worry... the Hudson River Ice Yacht Club is optimistic about a return to smooth ice in Athens with this melt/flash freeze potential, and they're even holding out hope to get some sailing in at Rhinecliff later in the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 My pack is getting beat on right now with temperatures right between 41-42. No way it survives the rest of today at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 I know that @Juliancolton mentioned this in the main thread yesterday but people have to stop looking at Freezing Rain qpf maps and thinking that's how much ice will accrete on trees and power lines. NWS Upton even has this stated on their Ice Accumulation map but I don't think people even read it: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter I am definitely hoping for the under on zr but people have to realize that 1" of zr on a qpf map roughly translates into .39 of ice on trees and power lines (rooting for the under). There are many variables but you get the drift. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 48 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I know that @Juliancolton mentioned this in the main thread yesterday but people have to stop looking at Freezing Rain qpf maps and thinking that's how much ice will accrete on trees and power lines. NWS Upton even has this stated on their Ice Accumulation map but I don't think people even read it: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter I am definitely hoping for the under on zr but people have to realize that 1" of zr on a qpf map roughly translates into .39 of ice on trees and power lines (rooting for the under). There are many variables but you get the drift. Here's something I only just learned that makes those maps even more worthless, at least for the GFS. Bonkers. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Seems like temps are busting on the low side. This might make a difference later on tonight with the changeover time a little sooner. Something to keep an eye on. Currently MGJ 39 and SWF 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: Here's something I only just learned that makes those maps even more worthless, at least for the GFS. Bonkers. Well we learned this on the same day. I was looking at the Euro 12z earlier and by 6z is showed .65" of zr at MGJ and the temp was 31. I then looked at the max and min temp for the six hours leadup up to 6z which was 38 and 31. It just didn't add up that it would be that much freezing rain over those six hours with that range in temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 37.2 in norther Putnam Co. Seems about 3 degrees lower than expected at this time. Not sure if it is meaningful, but they have my area changing to freezing rain at around 4am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Latest meso models continuing with the idea that at my house in Sullivan I might not go below 32 until after sunrise. Still is going to be a tight squeeze with all of the elevations (again, Sullivan County is nothing but elevations >1k feet) around me probably icing much sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 40/41/SE3 Dense Fog The temp boundary hasn't moved in hours and the SE wind isn't helping. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html IMO this one's a wash. Literally. The cars were nasty this morning and they're looking sharp now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Hi 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 21 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Hi Glad too see you made it up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 28 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Glad too see you made it up there. We hit snow right about exit 29 or so. By lake george you could tell we were hitting recently melted flakes though. Lake placid has gotten a few inches so far, buts its been snowing pretty hard for a while now. Should get a foot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Just now, BxEngine said: We hit snow right about exit 29 or so. By lake george you could tell we were hitting recently melted flakes though. Lake placid has gotten a few inches so far, buts its been snowing pretty hard for a while now. Should get a foot. Enjoy! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Should get a foot. Up your arse…uh, I mean, have a great time! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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