Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NAM gonna NAM, but that run pivots the peripheral deformation band all the way back to the river for a few hours. Ultimately I think that will probably end up over the western third of CT. Bears very close watching, however. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 And it has that wavering around for a few hours. This is looking pretty interesting. Guess I should go get some gas for the generator huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 hours ago, Juliancolton said: NAM gonna NAM, but that run pivots the peripheral deformation band all the way back to the river for a few hours. Ultimately I think that will probably end up over the western third of CT. Bears very close watching, however. All you need is a couple of hours under one of those at 3-4 inches per hour bands and when it pivots out you're sitting with a decent snow fall, no matter what happens the rest of the storm. I hate getting suckered back in again but it does appear we are at least on the periphery of being back in the ballgame. At least until the next set of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 And then of course the 6Z NAM spits out this. No support from any other models with these outputs and yes Julian I'm sick of seeing Kuchera maps too but I just had to post it here. However the map does substantiate my doubling theory from earlier, except this wasn't suppose to happen until tonights 18Z. I've been back and forth with this storm so many times I'm getting dizzy. If I somehow get 10 inches out of this when all is said and done I'll be more than happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 28f here. Thinking parking outside at jfk for a week might be unwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Game is just about over for me in the Catskills for >6” by this point but, wow, this is looking like something genuinely special. Don’t park your car anywhere near JFK lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but is there any concern about flooding in coastal areas mid to late next week?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: And then of course the 6Z NAM spits out this. No support from any other models with these outputs and yes Julian I'm sick of seeing Kuchera maps too but I just had to post it here. However the map does substantiate my doubling theory from earlier, except this wasn't suppose to happen until tonights 18Z. I've been back and forth with this storm so many times I'm getting dizzy. If I somehow get 10 inches out of this when all is said and done I'll be more than happy. Haha that would be great! No umm, it would be a hassle but FK! Almost 3 feet haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Hey @wdrag We are missing your wisdom. I hope all is well with you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 @NWSNewYorkNY AS PER THE QUESTIONS ABOUT BLIZZARD WARNINGS: We are currently reevaluating the data. Please keep checking back on our website at http://weather.gov/nyc. Thank you!!! 8:46 AM · Jan 28, 2022·Twitter Web App Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 We have flakes falling...the big ones always start early...something like that LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I think there's something to that. Get the column saturated and prepped so when things start to happen it happens quickly. 28* with flurries starting here now and barely a hint of a WNW breeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Pretty respectable snow growth here currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I think there's something to that. Get the column saturated and prepped so when things start to happen it happens quickly. 28* with flurries starting here now and barely a hint of a WNW breeze. Yup, there is something to that. I guess I need to lay the sarcasm on even more. This ain't our storm over this way. @snywx and I overperformed earlier this month so it'll likely be several years before that happens again for us unless we are talking high dews in the warm months...I'm sure we'll crush those for the foreseeable future. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Pretty respectable snow growth here currently. Yep here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Yup, there is something to that. I guess I need to lay the sarcasm on even more. This ain't our storm over this way. @snywx and I overperformed earlier this month so it'll likely be several years before that happens again for us unless we are talking high dews in the warm months...I'm sure we'll crush those for the foreseeable future. These gradient storms always suck for us far north and west. What does a guy have to do to order up a 1-2’ storm all up and down? I’ll gladly take this one off, though, considering our snow removal situation IMBY at the moment isn’t exactly the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Yup, there is something to that. I guess I need to lay the sarcasm on even more. This ain't our storm over this way. @snywx and I overperformed earlier this month so it'll likely be several years before that happens again for us unless we are talking high dews in the warm months...I'm sure we'll crush those for the foreseeable future. You always do well with destructive thunderstorms, not sure what more you could ask. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: You always do well with destructive thunderstorms, not sure what more you could ask. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Sorry, lol. As far as I'm concerned you guys are still repaying your debt from Feb '10. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 33 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Yup, there is something to that. I guess I need to lay the sarcasm on even more. This ain't our storm over this way. @snywx and I overperformed earlier this month so it'll likely be several years before that happens again for us unless we are talking high dews in the warm months...I'm sure we'll crush those for the foreseeable future. So what are you saying? The 6Z NAM Kuchera map showing 30-40 inches in the city and 18-24 through Eastern Orange County and Dutchess was wrong? I'm trying to downplay my expectations now. 29° and light snow with no accumulations. Kind of what tomorrow morning could look like. My expectations haven't changed that much. I do expect 6-8 inches where I am in Eastern Orange County and 10 would be a great victory. Any less would be disappointing but certainly not a surprise, and anything above 10 a gift from the snow gods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 23 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Sorry, lol. As far as I'm concerned you guys are still repaying your debt from Feb '10. Good storm but also a giant pain in the ass for me, lost power for 4 days with that one and it wasn't nice fluffy powder like this one will be be. Well, it did get fluffy towards the end. First world problems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Good storm but also a giant pain in the ass for me, lost power for 4 days with that one and it wasn't nice fluffy powder like this one will be be. Well, it did get fluffy towards the end. First world problems. I was down in Fishkill right as the snow stopped and had never seen such vividly blue snow. Plow piles just emanating this deep turquoise glow. What a spectacle. Then I returned home and my lawn was emanating a nice green. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Well, right or wrong, the time has come for my final call. Time is running out for those of us in the interior NW burbs to realize a major storm. The mesos are not only correcting east a bit but also trending toward more strung-out cyclogenesis, which will focus the precip shield along the SW/NE axis. I no longer believe we're in contention for the deform band, and in fact may spend most of the time under enhanced subsidence. The WV loop, while a thing of beauty, shows no major surprises at this stage. HPN: 6.8" SWF: 4.5" MGJ: 2.9" POU: 3.4" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 27 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Well, right or wrong, the time has come for my final call. Time is running out for those of us in the interior NW burbs to realize a major storm. The mesos are not only correcting east a bit but also trending toward more strung-out cyclogenesis, which will focus the precip shield along the SW/NE axis. I no longer believe we're in contention for the deform band, and in fact may spend most of the time under enhanced subsidence. The WV loop, while a thing of beauty, shows no major surprises at this stage. HPN: 6.8" SWF: 4.5" MGJ: 2.9" POU: 3.4" A reasonable call. I would add 3 inches to all of them and that would be my call. I guess I'm just the eternal optimist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: Sorry, lol. As far as I'm concerned you guys are still repaying your debt from Feb '10. 35 inches in Highland Mills my favorite storm of all time. I believe we were the jackpot area for that one in Orange County, the Monroe trained spotter came in with 34. There were places in the Catskills that were in the 40-50 inch range. I think Monticello recorded 38. Of course what made it extra special was most of New England getting rain the whole time. I still feel guilty for taking such pleasure in that to this very day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 35 inches in Highland Mills my favorite storm of all time. I believe we were the jackpot area for that one in Orange County, the Monroe trained spotter came in with 34. There were places in the Catskills that were in the 40-50 inch range. I think Monticello recorded 38. Of course what made it extra special was most of New England getting rain the whole time. I still feel guilty for taking such pleasure in that to this very day. I would love a repeat of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Let the whining increase further after that Euro run, LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Let the whining increase further after that Euro run, LOL Since the beginning it's almost been a 24 hour cycle with this F'n storm. East one day, west the next, east the next, then west. At least tonight's 0Z's should be our day to go west again. Hopefully it won't be to late for most of us to get something fairly significant (4-6, 6-10). I'm holding to my 8 inch prediction for Eastern Orange County. I may go down in flames but so be it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyR Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 And it’s fitting that the dim sun has just made an appearance thru the snowflakes as if to say “I am your future” 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Since the beginning it's almost been a 24 hour cycle with this F'n storm. East one day, west the next, east the next, then west. At least tonight's 0Z's should be our day to go west again. Hopefully it won't be to late for most of us to get something fairly significant (4-6, 6-10). I'm holding to my 8 inch prediction for Eastern Orange County. I may go down in flames but so be it. I'm thinking you'll be putting @BxEngine to work. I didn't even look at next week, which had something yesterday I think on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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