hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 8:13 PM, Juliancolton said: I was actually thinking fairly pedestrian again. The models keep the northerly winds going through the night at 4-6 kts, enough to prevent most places from decoupling. The HRRR tries to calm things down toward 6z, but it's touch and go with pressure falls occurring to the south. We do have a pretty good jumping-off point though - I'm sitting at 16, down from a high of 17. With otherwise good conditions as you pointed out, it wouldn't take more than a couple hours of slack winds to really nosedive, so I will leave that possibility open. I'll go -5F for me and -3F for you. Our spread last Sunday was 3 degrees, so tighten that by a degree or so per the slightly breezier conditions. Expand Points click forecast low for me is -3 tonight. We’ll see what happens. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 243 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cirrus had thinned out for a while, but should make a comeback this evening ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west, with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. The associated sfc low and its deeper low level moisture will remain south. Trended colder tonight with temps per latest MOS guidance, with lows 10-15 in/around NYC, single digits most elsewhere, and 0 to 5 below across Orange/Putnam/N Westchester where winds should decouple over snow pack late tonight. Steady N flow in combination with these temps will result in minimum wind chills around zero in NYC, 0 to 5 below in most suburbs and across Long Island and the immediate SW CT coast, and 5 to 10 below farther north/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 8:24 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: Points click forecast low for me is -3 tonight. We’ll see what happens. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 243 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2021 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cirrus had thinned out for a while, but should make a comeback this evening ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west, with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. The associated sfc low and its deeper low level moisture will remain south. Trended colder tonight with temps per latest MOS guidance, with lows 10-15 in/around NYC, single digits most elsewhere, and 0 to 5 below across Orange/Putnam/N Westchester where winds should decouple over snow pack late tonight. Steady N flow in combination with these temps will result in minimum wind chills around zero in NYC, 0 to 5 below in most suburbs and across Long Island and the immediate SW CT coast, and 5 to 10 below farther north/west. Expand -4 for me...I'm betting the over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 8:33 PM, IrishRob17 said: -4 for me...I'm betting the over Expand Me too on the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 7/-3 currently. My P&C got nudged up a bit to -2, so we'll see. The cirrus canopy is a good bit farther north than modeled... gotta get that out of here. As an aside, I'm going to become the Joker if this verifies. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 12:12 AM, Juliancolton said: 7/-3 currently. My P&C got nudged up a bit to -2, so we'll see. The cirrus canopy is a good bit farther north than modeled... gotta get that out of here. As an aside, I'm going to become the Joker if this verifies. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 -4.4 currently. Some impressive cold showing up in sheltered spots in the southern Catskills (I see you, -13 in Fallsburg) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 -11 for a low currently -9.8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 8:33 PM, IrishRob17 said: -4 for me...I'm betting the over Expand On 1/21/2022 at 8:36 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: Me too on the over. Expand It’s a push, I touched -4 at 7:38am, up to -1 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 -2 for the morning low. Julian pretty much nailed it. It doesn’t seem like my neighborhood nails the cold like it use to, it use to be one of those spots that would come in coldest in the area but I’ve noticed that change during the last several years. Not quite sure why. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Can’t remember the last time this area was the coldest around. Normally @IrishRob17or @Juliancoltonclaim that spot. Quick scan of nysmesonet show everyone in the area around 0 w/ Otisville still -8. Impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 1:35 PM, snywx said: Can’t remember the last time this area was the coldest around. Normally @IrishRob17or @Juliancoltonclaim that spot. Quick scan of nysmesonet show everyone in the area around 0 w/ Otisville still -8. Impressive Expand Strange night for sure in that regard. -15 in Bethel and -16 in Woodbourne stand out on a cursory look... wouldn't be surprised if a few hollows in Sullivan and/or western Orange touched -20. -5.8 was the low here. My general call held up nicely in and around the valley, at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 1:44 PM, Juliancolton said: Strange night for sure in that regard. -15 in Bethel and -16 in Woodbourne stand out on a cursory look... wouldn't be surprised if a few hollows in Sullivan and/or western Orange touched -20. -5.8 was the low here. My general call held up nicely in and around the valley, at least. Expand Would you think snowpack played a role here? Most of southern Sullivan county from Monticello down through Rock hill has a solid 10” down. Most areas on this side of the county still have a 6-7” snowpack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 1:48 PM, snywx said: Would you think snowpack played a role here? Most of southern Sullivan county from Monticello down through Rock hill has a solid 10” down. Most areas on this side of the county still have a 6-7” snowpack. Expand It certainly helps. I have 5” still here but it was clear is was colder just west of here. Had we picked up some solid fresh snow on Thursday I wonder how cold it would’ve got but it is what it is. The Mount Washington temps were interesting as you go up the mountain. Last I checked it was -15 at the base and +5 up top. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 1:19 PM, IrishRob17 said: It’s a push, I touched -4 at 7:38am, up to -1 now. Expand I won, low of -1 here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 3:14 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: I won, low of -1 here. Expand Which betting app did you use? LOL Back to the Rock Pile, check out the warm layer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 It stayed above 0 here on the hill, the lowest station went to 3. Whatever, it's cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 That's a good point about snowcover differences. The deeper the better for radiating. I'm down to about 1.5" of crunchy glacial refuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 9 degrees here now and 16 at Legoland, that’s the biggest difference I’ve seen to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 3:13 AM, IrishRob17 said: 9 degrees here now and 16 at Legoland, that’s the biggest difference I’ve seen to date. Expand It's 10° here right now, and Legoland 10 miles to my west is 16°? They're doing something wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 3:44 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said: It's 10° here right now, and Legoland 10 miles to my west is 16°? They're doing something wrong. Expand Doing something wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 3:58 AM, IrishRob17 said: Doing something wrong? Expand Rob, don't ask me to explain things when I have no idea what point I'm trying to make. I'll throw conspiracy theories out there. They're purposely adding several degrees to their readings to lure tourism? Who wouldn't want to ride a roller coaster in 16° weather. In 10° weather that would be crazy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 4:03 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Rob, don't ask me to explain things when I have no idea what point I'm trying to make. I'll throw conspiracy theories out there. They're purposely adding several degrees to their readings to lure tourism? Who wouldn't want to ride a roller coaster in 16° weather. In 10° weather that would be crazy. Expand LOL. I noticed they had just a little bit of wind over the last couple hours but it’s been dead calm here. This is the weather minutiae that @Juliancolton and I really enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 It’s currently 15 here and at KMGJ, 2 miles north of me, it’s 7! That’s by far the biggest difference I’ve ever seen between me and KMGJ. Legoland is 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 15f here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 8 for a low here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 4:03 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Rob, don't ask me to explain things when I have no idea what point I'm trying to make. I'll throw conspiracy theories out there. They're purposely adding several degrees to their readings to lure tourism? Who wouldn't want to ride a roller coaster in 16° weather. In 10° weather that would be crazy. Expand Good morning CP. Your making a perfectly good point. It all depends on how well you place and construct your personal Lego’s. As always. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Le'go my eggo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It's funny how quickly "you never want to be in the bullseye 7 days out" turns into "the day 7 threat is dead" when only one or two models at a time have you in the bullseye. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 7:04 PM, Juliancolton said: It's funny how quickly "you never want to be in the bullseye 7 days out" turns into "the day 7 threat is dead" when only one or two models at a time have you in the bullseye. Expand Model mayhem this season. Flip flopping more than a fish out of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 3:36 PM, gravitylover said: Le'go my eggo? Expand I have to find it first. Stay well, as always ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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