january 3rd potential coastal grazer

[mikem81]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref 6+ for nyc area

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

 

[chrisNJ]

Not that it means much but between 15z and 21z the SREF mean total snow at TTN has gone from 5 to 10”.  I don’t expect anything but the SREF has upticked. 

[RDRY]

11 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Is it reliable? At this range? 

SREFs aren't even reliable AFTER the event.

[dmillz25]

NAM is coming north from what I’m seeing

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, Torch said:

If my memory serves me correct, earthlight considered  the srefs 

in his forecasts.

They haven't been good in at least a decade

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

NAM is coming north from what I’m seeing

Yep

Good hit central NJ southward

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

NAM is coming north from what I’m seeing

Agreed

 

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

Good hit central NJ southward

Will take it, just interested if warm air will be a problem on immediate coast if this wraps up and in a bit.  I had around 43 water temp when fishing 6 miles SE of Barnegat Inlet today.  

[codfishsnowman]

5 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Will take it, just interested if warm air will be a problem on immediate coast if this wraps up and in a bit.  I had around 43 water temp when fishing 6 miles SE of Barnegat Inlet today.  

Any codfish starting to show locally? What did you catch?

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Will take it, just interested if warm air will be a problem on immediate coast if this wraps up and in a bit.  I had around 43 water temp when fishing 6 miles SE of Barnegat Inlet today.  

At least for NJ, no. Northerly flow is coming into the storm. There’s practically zero chance it tracks far enough NW to mix the coast over. 

[wdrag]

Hi... before the 00z/3 NAM says I'm wrong... the SREF has value, especially the SPC SREF.

While it can be wrong, especially gradients,  better not ignore it when it has these amounts.  I'm pretty sure we'll see a stripe of a foot or so in the DelMarva, far s NJ. Sharp lift and strong UVM.  So whether it has too much snow on LI/NYC,  (and there has to be doubts), I cannot cast aside the SREF (not within 24 hours).

Added the 21z SREF for LGA which is now up to 7". This in part driven by several members up near 20".  Even so, of the 22 members, only 1 is ZERO. All other members more than 1" there.  In my opinion, It's going to snow in NYC---maybe not much but I think we need to be prepared for 4 in NYC and count on one inch, especially if the 00z NAM follows the 00z/3 HRRR north.   I could be wrong and I don't like eating humble pie, but tomorrow morning should be fast changing on radar. 

[Dan76]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Any codfish starting to show locally? What did you catch?

Not yet just Blackfish

[dseagull]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At least for NJ, no. Northerly flow is coming into the storm. There’s practically zero chance it tracks far enough NW to mix the coast over. 

Thanks.  To my failing memory, this setup just doesnt work too well for us unless we thread the needle, but when it does, we put up some numbers.  Appreciate the feedback. 

[dseagull]

4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Any codfish starting to show locally? What did you catch?

Played with some tautog before heading back in the 3 mile line and puting a 2 man limit of stripers together really fast.  Love keeping the boat in late for these type of warm winter days. 

Will do the seabass and cod spiel when the boat goes back in March. 

[wdrag]

New NAM at least 1" NYC now..starts NYC around 10A-Noon. 

[Rjay]

27 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi... before the 00z/3 NAM says I'm wrong... the SREF has value, especially the SPC SREF.

While it can be wrong, especially gradients,  better not ignore it when it has these amounts.  I'm pretty sure we'll see a stripe of a foot or so in the DelMarva, far s NJ. Sharp lift and strong UVM.  So whether it has too much snow on LI/NYC,  (and there has to be doubts), I cannot cast aside the SREF (not within 24 hours).

Added the 21z SREF for LGA which is now up to 7". This in part driven by several members up near 20".  Even so, of the 22 members, only 1 is ZERO. All other members more than 1" there.  In my opinion, It's going to snow in NYC---maybe not much but I think we need to be prepared for 4 in NYC and count on one inch, especially if the 00z NAM follows the 00z/3 HRRR north.   I could be wrong and I don't like eating humble pie, but tomorrow morning should be fast changing on radar. 

How useful is it to use the sref when it has a mean of 7" at LGA the night before an event that we all know will produce 2" max there?

This ensemble is prone to wild swings.  

[Rjay]

@wdrag. You're right about the gradient.   It's almost always too high on the northern fringe.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

AB approved 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

How useful is it to use the sref when it has a mean of 7" at LGA the night before an event that we all know will produce 2" max there?

This ensemble is prone to wild swings.  

That northern fringe is going to be fighting very dry air as per soundings. A lot of what is shown is probably going to be virga 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

That northern fringe is going to be fighting very dry air as per soundings. A lot of what is shown is probably going to be virga 

I really don't think models show virga.  I could be wrong but I remember reading that once.  

I do expect a virga fest up here though. 

[wdrag]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

How useful is it to use the sref when it has a mean of 7" at LGA the night before an event that we all know will produce 2" max there?

This ensemble is prone to wild swings.  

I'm not sure who is saying 2" max there?  As a planner, you can know the deterministic and be alert that the forecast may go awry on the heavy side.  The SREF and all ensembles on this system have not been wild, only trending northward.  

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

I'm not sure who is saying 2" max there?  As a planner, you can know the deterministic and be alert that the forecast may go awry on the heavy side.  The SREF and all ensembles on this system have not been wild, only trending northward.  

You're right.  There's definitely nothing wrong with being prepared.   And you're right again.  I'm saying 2" max .

[MJO812]

It does score once in a while

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

You're right.  There's definitely nothing wrong with being prepared.   And you're right, I'm saying 2" max .

2 max unless it keeps coming north

[Allsnow]

Dab+ 

[wdrag]

My final post on this thread and for this evening.  The amounts you see where 4+...its going to be 2-3"/hour.  May have some TS+ 1/8 Mi. 

This is the one in 10 chance from Mt Holly, the overall Winter Storm Severity Index - both collaborated at 3P this afternoon, the 00z/3 3K NAM snowfall as a start, and the 00z/3 HRRRX.  You want big snow, you go south and get there by 5AM.  Should be a 6 hour window of some embedded white out down in s NJ somewhere. I checked 18z/3 NAM soundings. It all looks quite good for all snow after 8AM. 

 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

My final post on this thread and for this evening.  The amounts you see where 4+...its going to be 2-3"/hour.  May have some TS+ 1/8 Mi. 

This is the one in 10 chance from Mt Holly, the overall Winter Storm Severity Index - both collaborated at 3P this afternoon, the 00z/3 3K NAM snowfall as a start, and the 00z/3 HRRRX.  You want big snow, you go south and get there by 5AM.  Should be a 6 hour window of some embedded white out down in s NJ somewhere. I checked 18z/3 NAM soundings. It all looks quite good for all snow after 8AM. 

Thanks again for tracking with us Walt. 

[psv88]

@wdragis the man. Thank you!

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, wdrag said:

My final post on this thread and for this evening.  The amounts you see where 4+...its going to be 2-3"/hour.  May have some TS+ 1/8 Mi. 

This is the one in 10 chance from Mt Holly, the overall Winter Storm Severity Index - both collaborated at 3P this afternoon, the 00z/3 3K NAM snowfall as a start, and the 00z/3 HRRRX.  You want big snow, you go south and get there by 5AM.  Should be a 6 hour window of some embedded white out down in s NJ somewhere. I checked 18z/3 NAM soundings. It all looks quite good for all snow after 8AM. 

 

Thanks as always for your contributions here, Walt. Hopefully this can pull a rabbit out of the hat and bump north 50 more miles. 

[WeatherFox]

Earlier NWS NYC Forecast Discussion:

"This will overall be a minor light snow event. Snowfall totals
are expected to be greatest over eastern Long Island, where 1-2
inches are possible. Farther west over northeastern NJ and NYC
up to an inch is possible. Snow totals drop off farther north,
with the CT coast and southern portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley likely seeing less than an inch and far northern
locations staying dry. Trends in track will need to be monitored
given the nature of the tight gradient in QPF and snowfall.

Timing of the event may be the biggest concern. Snow starts in the
early morning hours on Monday and will continue through the evening.
This could impact the morning commute and potentially the evening
commute for eastern Long Island. With temperatures dropping quickly
overnight tonight to below freezing, snow is expected to stick right
away. Given the uncertainty that surrounds this system, and current
light snowfall totals, have decided to hold off on any headlines
over our area in collaboration with neighboring offices. Subsequent
shifts will have to monitor new guidance and a Winter Weather
Advisory may be possible for eastern Long Island.."