mob1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Or maybe the Nam is late to the table I should be good for an inch or two but it will be tough seeing places to my south seeing alot of snow You're far from guaranteed an inch. You might not even seeba flake if some models are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 30 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep. Up where we are this likely won’t be a big deal if anything at all. Sometimes models over correct NW as well at this stage so it wouldn’t surprise me if it edged back SE a little to something like the Nam. you want to be in Long Beach for this, we could get 2-4 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: DC is getting a big snowstorm without blocking. Very weird. Almost all of their big La Nina snow events occurred in fast flow patterns with no -NAO where a storm was not able to go NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, mob1 said: You're far from guaranteed an inch. You might not even seeba flake if some models are right. What models ? They all show something except the nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: What models ? They all show something except the nam. Ukie, Icon, both NAMs, HRRR, etc. I hope we both getsomething, just keep expectations low as there's a good chance we get nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: you want to be in Long Beach for this, we could get 2-4 here I wish you folks along the south shore and Brooklyn and SI good luck with this one. I think that while 1-2” is possible there I think a car topper is most likely. I think folks on the Jersey shore south of Long Branch and east of Islip on the island stand the best chance of seeing 1-3” with higher amounts further down the Jersey shore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What models ? They all show something except the nam. He's right. Expect nothing and be happy with what you may get. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, mob1 said: Ukie, Icon, both NAMs, HRRR, etc. I hope we both getsomething, just keep expectations low as there's a good chance we get nothing. I hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, psv88 said: He's right. Expect nothing and be happy with what you may get. True true DC will have more snow than us and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: DC is getting a big snowstorm without blocking. Very weird. The 500 mb pattern is fairly similar to that of January 22, 1954, along with similar teleconnections (AO-, NAO+, PNA+). The January 22-23, 1954 storm brought 6.4" to Washington, DC, but just 0.3" to Philadelphia and no snow to New York City. I don't think the gradient will be quite that sharp this time around, e.g., I think Philadelphia will see 2"-4", Central Park 0.5" or less and the JFK/southern Brooklyn, and Staten Island could see 0.5" to perhaps an inch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I suspect the sharp gradient in 700mb humidity represents approximately how far north the accumulating snow should actually be getting on the 18z GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 43 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 500 mb pattern is fairly similar to that of January 22, 1954, along with similar teleconnections (AO-, NAO+, PNA+). The January 22-23, 1954 storm brought 6.4" to Washington, DC, but just 0.3" to Philadelphia and no snow to New York City. I don't think the gradient will be quite that sharp this time around, e.g., I think Philadelphia will see 2"-4", Central Park 0.5" or less and the JFK/southern Brooklyn, and Staten Island could see 0.5" to perhaps an inch. The minute the pna spiked we got a threat. Should be no more debate on what’s more important 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The minute the pna spiked we got a threat. Should be no more debate on what’s more important We have a threat tomorrow. A small change in the height field would have delivered us a major snowstorm. Correlations with indices are meaningful but weak. Weather at the local level is primarily dependent on random chance even though many correlations exist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I think we could have had chances with that -NAO that we had. The problem with that was we also had a record (near record?) -PNA along with it. In which case, forget about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Hurricane force wind warning off the coast of Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Based on past similar events, there will likely be a northern band that produces some decent rates and that’s where you see 1-2”. While just north of that it’s all subsidence and a few flakes. It’s way too early to say where that band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, eduggs said: We have a threat tomorrow. A small change in the height field would have delivered us a major snowstorm. Correlations with indices are meaningful but weak. Weather at the local level is primarily dependent on random chance even though many correlations exist. We spent most of December with a -nao and nothing to show for it. The minute we got a brief spike in the pna we had a snow threat. Obviously, small changes in the hgts field etc are nuances that can’t be fore scene in such lead time. All I’m saying is I feel the pna is the most important indice for us when it comes to winter storm Chances 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: We spent most of December with a -nao and nothing to show for it. The minute we got a brief spike in the pna we had a snow threat. Obviously, small changes in the hgts field etc are nuances that can’t be fore scene in such lead time. All I’m saying is I feel the pna is the most important indice for us when it comes to winter storm Chances Pacific > Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Euro south Awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro south Awful Can you post the snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Can you post the snow map?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro south Awful I think the only chance NYC and NE Jersey has of seeing any snow is a result of that western component presently in Alabama and western Tennessee. If that fades, and "consolidates" with the main precip shield, we shouldn't see a thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 34/28 currently. Decent wind from the north west. Smoking cirrus tomorrow. Good luck down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 WHO DO THEY GET TO CLEAR THIS STUFF IN DC DEMS OR REPUBLICANS? i just dropped out of politics HeeHeeHee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: DC is getting a big snowstorm without blocking. Very weird. There is some confluence off to the north of the area-not too strong but enough to keep the flow west to east and shunting the storm east. Unfortunate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Checked 18z GGEM, EC, 15z SREF... not much recession if any... this suggests some modeling is going to be major error in the northern side gradient change between NYC-LI and Toms River. HRRR/HRRRX look a little more like the NAM...s of NYC. Going to be some large errors, especially 12z/18z EC if this ends up like the much further south NAM. May post once more before going to rest, then up early to recheck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Sref 6+ for nyc area 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Is it reliable? At this range? We shall see but it's going to be close. I think the city misses out but does get a at least 1-3 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Is it reliable? At this range? Never reliable 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Rjay said: Never reliable Its 100% of the time overdone but I don't remember any cases of it showing something that big 12 hours out and the event being a total whiff. I'm sure it has occurred though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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