eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 If you just looked at the Euro at 18hr you'd assume we were all going to get crushed. Such a shame that the SLP is sliding ENE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is similar to 6z Thought it was a little more NW but not much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thought it was a little more NW but not much. Barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The euro is warning level snows for the Southern half of New Jersey and extreme Eastern Long Island advisory snows for the rest of Long Island and the Southern boroughs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: If you just looked at the Euro at 18hr you'd assume we were all going to get crushed. Such a shame that the SLP is sliding ENE. Imagine if the placement is off either way Get slammed or miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Bad Feb 2010 vibes here Manhattan 0 My area 2 inches Staten island 7 inches Further south over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Courtesy the EC and Weather.US... I appreciate their data. I have to think the GFS/SREF has been better than most other modeling, in advance...all catching up to the GFS. Northern fringe of the GFS can be argued drier but there is no doubt (in my mind) about a high impact storm very close to NYC. I'll fire up the OBS-nowcast thread... lets leave it alone til about 10PM then have at it...keep all the discussion of the storm here til we get to within 6 hours of starting. Thanks... Good job on getting this thread started and enjoy. Here is one EC op model Kuchera solution from the 12z/2 cycle. It's not what the final solution will be, but I'll believe a big 6-12" snowstorm is coming to s NJ and very close to NYC. If its mixed with sleet, amounts less, but removal still difficult. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Damn so close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 It’s near 60 in parts of Jersey that will be getting over a foot of snow tomorrow! What a shock to the system the airmass will be tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Pre upgrade this would freak me out as the Euro was automatically 30-50 miles too far SE with everything, but last few months its been on the nose mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That's a nice hit for the Southern half of this sub form especially with the cold temperatures forecast Monday through Wednesday it will look wintry outside. Any chance this can shift 50 miles further Northwest to get everyone in the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 ill enjoy my 1.5” considering just hours ago i was smoking cirrus. so close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Temps in the upper 20s for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Gradient! The EC goes from 1"-10" in 40 miles across NJ. Ouch! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I'd gladly take the few inches that Euro is showing for our area, even though it would be a little frustrating that the really big amounts miss us to the south. Hopefully the NAM is incorrect about having the accumulations much more to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Still don't know what to think here lol. The dry air is a real concern. That gradient is going to be tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s near 60 in parts of Jersey that will be getting over a foot of snow tomorrow! What a shock to the system the airmass will be tomorrow. Looks like it will be the first time that ACY has so much snow on a day in January following a 60°+ day. We pulled this off during the 16-17 winter. But big January ACY snowstorms usually have the cold in place before the storm. So a very spring on the Rockies vibe. Biggest January snowstorms and day before high temperature Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Period of record: 1945-01-31 to 2022-01-01 1 14.3…23° 1987-01-26 2 13.2….32° 2018-01-04 3 12.9….29° 1964-01-13 4 12.7…..22° 1996-01-07 5 10.1…..37° 2016-01-23 6 8.3….37° 2000-01-25 7 8.0….47° 1961-01-19 8 7.7…36° 2011-01-08 9 7.6…..27° 2010-01-30 10 7.4….42° 1958-01-07 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Would be great to have snow on the ground and blustery temps for a couple of days after this awful holiday week weather... hoping we all get something from this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Kuchera The 1 inch of Liquid Precip is literally 40-50 miles south of NYC... Even without model movement, these storms usually end up being naturally 20-25 miles NW Of final models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: The 1 inch of Liquid Precip is literally 40-50 miles south of NYC... Even without model movement, these storms usually end up being naturally 20-25 miles NW Of final models.. I agree except this is not your typical coastal storm with cold air already in place Trying to hold on. This is a wave forming on the cold front with some pretty good CAA under way. This is one where we need the South East Ridge to hold on longer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like it will be the first time that ACY has so much snow on a day in January following a 60°+ day. We pulled this off during the 16-17 winter. But big January ACY snowstorms usually have the cold in place before the storm. So a very spring on the Rockies vibe. Biggest January snowstorms and day before high temperature Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Period of record: 1945-01-31 to 2022-01-01 1 14.3…23° 1987-01-26 2 13.2….32° 2018-01-04 3 12.9….29° 1964-01-13 4 12.7…..22° 1996-01-07 5 10.1…..37° 2016-01-23 6 8.3….37° 2000-01-25 7 8.0….47° 1961-01-19 8 7.7…36° 2011-01-08 9 7.6…..27° 2010-01-30 10 7.4….42° 1958-01-07 Crazy. Our dew points will be in the teens up here tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Crazy. Our dew points will be in the teens up here tomorrow? Yeah, the 10° dew point line sets up near the I-78 corridor on the 12z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 35 minutes ago, mikem81 said: The 1 inch of Liquid Precip is literally 40-50 miles south of NYC... Even without model movement, these storms usually end up being naturally 20-25 miles NW Of final models.. With no blocking its possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the 10° dew point line sets up near the I-78 corridor on the 12z Euro. Probably the dividing line for nothing/dust until one gets south of ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 My hopes are for a coating to a inch here locally. Would be nice to get with the artic airmass coming in. DCA towards acy is going to get crushed! Good for them 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 HRRR would be a big miss but it's also useless beyond 6-8 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 For the snow lovers in the D.C. area, I am glad they are in for a good snowfall. They have missed most of the action on the east coast, the last few years. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Mt Holly went with WSW all the way to Ocean County now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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