wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 So, 12z NAM, HRRR, HRRRX matches more conservative forecast as only flurries or no snow NYC N and W, but e LI and central NJ Toms River south near the sharp cutoff. Also, some modeling is showing heavy snow near DC-Baltimore. Caution---sleet mixed in may but back amounts but still result in treacherous travel there. I think the further s you go in the axis, the greater the chance of mixed qpf. Added a few graphics: 1) 09z/2 SREF too abundant too far north and not enough mix south to limit amounts. 2) 12z HRRRX amount through 2PM. 3) NWS 14z /2 ensemble chance of 4" Note how conservative - that is because I think it models mixed types better. 4) NWS 14z/2 prob for 1" VERY difficult for NYC to see an inch, maybe all of LI too. I do not know but I lean drier and lower amounts in our area. That does not mean I'm correct but NWS conservative posture, barring 12z GGEM/EC probably works for our subforum with advisory conditions possible e LI snd central NJ. Further it's a mess where being on the road in the morning is not where I'd want to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 All this modeling needs to be published and allow reality to verify. I may not be posting 3P-8P. Will review at 930PM and possibly start an OBS thread at that time if we are looking at more than a trace LI central NJ. If these ensembles BUST now (thanks for hotdog), then NWS will need to review the mix. Seeing less than a 30% chance of 1" at Toms River is telling in the 14z/2 NWS ensembles. EPS amounts can be biased high because 10 to 1 ratios, even mixed wintry. Where I think ensembles tend to fail is along the gradient edge, (go either way) and in the core, not high enough probs. However, modelers will tell you it's a matter of dispersion of solutions. Warrants further conversation. In the meantime, I hope we have a better system than this for the rest of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Rgem slightly south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem slightly south Close the blinds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Flow is too fast for a big north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Flow is too fast for a big north trend Atta boy, now you got it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 For the past day, there has been a significant north trend (precipitation coverage and amounts) on most guidance in VA, MD, DE and SNJ associated with the southern stream wave. But this trend has been muted further up the coast. It continues to look unlikely that anything meaningful with get north of SNJ. But convection in the South or a further deepening of the southern stream wave shifts could still shift everything further north. I could see CNJ and SEPA getting into the game. But the northern stream height field is really preventing the SLP from moving NE up the coast and expanding the precipitation shield to inland areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I do see a scenario where the northern extent ends up being 30-50 miles further north. A more energetic southern vortex leading to stronger negative tilt could get snows up to north central NJ. HRRR will be interesting moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Flow is too fast for a big north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Wow the GFS with 20" of snow for Atlantic City incredible it does get around 2" into the city 6" around Long Branch New Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 the 12z GFS looks a bit better at 500mb! more buckling of the trough with appreciably higher heights over NJ. much more PVA into the region overall I was not expecting a positive shift at 12z here, so this is great to see. the GFS really isn't backing down here as it improved in all facets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Gfs is slightly west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Haha the classic storm is in 24 hours no idea what to expect event. Welcome to 2022! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is slightly west again That negative tilt causes the storm to slow down which allows precip to move further north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: That negative tilt causes the storm to slow down which allows precip to move further north. First time seeing the low that close to the coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The GFS has probably never scored a win on a mainly/entirely southern stream based event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Mt Holly finally issued a WSA for the southern part of their area. It will show up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS has probably never scored a win on a mainly/entirely southern stream based event. It phased with the northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Getting Feb 2010 vibes I had 2 inches here while NJ had way more I think the cutoff for big snows ends up closer to ACY. I think a coating to 1” is a good call for NYC w/ 1-3” central & eastern LI. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, snywx said: I think the cutoff for big snows ends up closer to ACY. I think a coating to 1” is a good call for NYC w/ 1-3” central & eastern LI. Going with the Nam? Possible but this will come down to 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Watching the radar will be brutal tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 radars will look great here tomorrow and a lot of that in our area will be virga at the start......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: When was the last time little to nothing was expected but it busted high? Jan 25, 2000 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, snywx said: I think the cutoff for big snows ends up closer to ACY. I think a coating to 1” is a good call for NYC w/ 1-3” central & eastern LI. Yes. This will be fighting a lot of dry air on the northern edge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS positive snow depth change: sure involves NYC and 1 foot amounts in the axis. Going to be an amazing GFS coup if this works out. NAM, ensembles, SPC HREF will be unbelievably defeated. Soon we will know. I still think lots of mixed precip DCA-Cape May or Dover DE. Thicknesses are still warm at the start and sounding still yet to be subfreezing. It will change rapidly shortly after precip begins. SPC HREF will be far more conservative than the GFS on the northern side of the storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 holy crap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yes. This will be fighting a lot of dry air on the northern edge. Us inland folk know that all too well lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now