greenmtnwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Nam is awful until you get to SNJ It’s over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: It’s over Kidding ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Kidding ? For nyc it is. Needed continued steady trends, fairly significant ones and as Will pointed out the usual ebb and flow is to go the other way late. This one wasn’t for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: For nyc it is. Needed continued steady trends, fairly significant ones and as Will pointed out the usual ebb and flow is to go the other way late. This one wasn’t for the city. Are you the same person who would bash the Nam for being too amped ? Let's see other models before we say anything. Nyc is on the northern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The 12Z HRRR looks more or less like the 06Z Euro...for now I go nothing over C-1 for the NYC area but this is an uneasy 18 hours for sure because any nudge north and you've got several inches of snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: has this model been accurate at all in the past ? Also how about the Sref ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: has this model been accurate at all in the past ? Also how about the Sref ? Sref bumped northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: IF only that would rarify or dare I say it,,,shift a lil bit more slightly North 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Northern stream was so close to phasing in on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: has this model been accurate at all in the past ? Also how about the Sref ? The FV3 has been wildly inconsistent for the last year when I have looked at it. I never know when to trust it...the SREF is ALWAYS overdone, however its usually not this deviated from the NAM at 24...its safe to say one will probably be wrong by a good margin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The FV3 has been wildly inconsistent for the last year when I have looked at it. I never know when to trust it...the SREF is ALWAYS overdone, however its usually not this deviated from the NAM at 24...its safe to say one will probably be wrong by a good margin Euro and eps came north Nam is an outlier right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The FV3 has been wildly inconsistent for the last year when I have looked at it. I never know when to trust it...the SREF is ALWAYS overdone, however its usually not this deviated from the NAM at 24...its safe to say one will probably be wrong by a good margin Thanks that just answered all questions on how this storm will play out in the immediate NYC metro - not much in the way of accumulation..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NWS Mount Holly this morning… This is a rapidly evolving forecast and users should monitor the forecast closely through the course of today as additional changes, potentially significant, are possible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Thanks that just answered all questions on how this storm will play out in the immediate NYC metro - not much in the way of accumulation..... Based off what ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, WeatherFox said: NWS Mount Holly this morning… This is a rapidly evolving forecast and users should monitor the forecast closely through the course of today as additional changes, potentially significant, are possible. did they give any hint in which direction these changes are favoring at the moment ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, NEG NAO said: Thanks that just answered all questions on how this storm will play out in the immediate NYC metro - not much in the way of accumulation..... NAO,,, if you were at the crap table in Vegas right now and we still had 36 hours to go and other model runs would you put all you chips in the center and say "not much will happen " ----- I wouldn't but thats me as I think this still has a long ways to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Based off what ? current reliable guidance - not your usually unreliable guidance..... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: current reliable guidance - not your usually unreliable guidance..... Which guidance is that? The Nam ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: NAO,,, if you were at the crap table in Vegas right now and we still had 36 hours to go and other model runs would you put all you chips in the center and say "not much will happen " ----- I wouldn't but thats me as I think this still has a long ways to go I have bad luck so I would not gamble on anything lol 36 hours out is plenty of a shift shift or north. Nam is the only model way south right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Which guidance is that? The Nam ? the negative comment SnowGoose made about your FV3 and Sref 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: did they give any hint in which direction these changes are favoring at the moment ? NWS NYC did.. The forecast area will be on the northern fringes of the low, there is a large precipitation gradient and a track closer to the coast could lead to more in the way of snow if further model runs show a continued northward jog. At this time, the thinking is for less than an inch for portions of northeast New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, southern Connecticut and western Long Island, while 1 to 2 inches is expected across central and easter Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and inland southwestern Connecticut will see little, if any snow. It`s worth noting that a few short range ensemble means bring warning level criteria to southern portions of the forecast area, but did not go that high given aforementioned uncertainty. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: the negative comment SnowGoose made about your FV3 and Sref How about the other models ? Euro ? Eps ? It's foolish to only base the forecast on the Nam. If the other models trend to it then okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WeatherFox said: NWS NYC did.. The forecast area will be on the northern fringes of the low, there is a large precipitation gradient and a track closer to the coast could lead to more in the way of snow if further model runs show a continued northward jog. At this time, the thinking is for less than an inch for portions of northeast New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, southern Connecticut and western Long Island, while 1 to 2 inches is expected across central and easter Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and inland southwestern Connecticut will see little, if any snow. It`s worth noting that a few short range ensemble means bring warning level criteria to southern portions of the forecast area, but did not go that high given aforementioned uncertainty. Fair forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WeatherFox said: NWS NYC did.. The forecast area will be on the northern fringes of the low, there is a large precipitation gradient and a track closer to the coast could lead to more in the way of snow if further model runs show a continued northward jog. At this time, the thinking is for less than an inch for portions of northeast New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, southern Connecticut and western Long Island, while 1 to 2 inches is expected across central and easter Long Island and southeastern Connecticut. Northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and inland southwestern Connecticut will see little, if any snow. It`s worth noting that a few short range ensemble means bring warning level criteria to southern portions of the forecast area, but did not go that high given aforementioned uncertainty. Thanks - southern parts of forecast area in NYC zones is Union County in NJ and Staten Island and southern parts of Brooklyn and points east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Thanks - southern parts of forecast area in NYC zones is Union County in NJ and Staten Island and southern parts of Brooklyn and points east Getting Feb 2010 vibes I had 2 inches here while NJ had way more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Getting Feb 2010 vibes I had 2 inches here while NJ had way more might be a nowcasting situation watching the radars tomorrow......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Fair forecast I’ve been around a long time. This could be the “surprise” snowstorm or the disappointing one. We are always concerned about warmer air changeover of a potential snowstorm to sleet, rain amongst other things.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Well the Nam said that's a wrap and I think it's correct. Models were overdoing the NW ticks and are now pulling back. I expect the GFS to follow. You're relying on the southern vortex to do all the work without a lot of help from the northern stream, which is why the precip field is so tight. Let the Mid-Atlantic take the win here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This will have a very sharp cutoff line for snowfall in some parts of region with such low dewpoints nearby. KPOU GFS MOS GUIDANCE 1/02/2022 0600 UTC DT /JAN 2 /JAN 3 /JAN 4 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 53 17 32 10 37 TMP 48 48 51 48 39 31 24 19 17 26 29 29 22 18 15 14 14 25 34 30 27 DPT 46 42 34 28 23 19 15 12 9 12 10 6 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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