MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: HRRR would be a big miss but it's also useless beyond 6-8 hours Nam is a smidge better but still a big miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 My hopes are for a coating to a inch here locally. Would be nice to get with the artic airmass coming in. DCA towards acy is going to get crushed! Good for them Right? Of course I like a good storm, but I can’t have one all of the time. Let someone else enjoy it. I’m sure there are people down the shore that have missed out recently. I’ve had a ton of really good ones for years.The last big miss was February 2010? So what. That’s 12 years now. Not a bad track record.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, North and West said: Right? Of course I like a good storm, but I can’t have one all of the time. Let someone else enjoy it. I’m sure there are people down the shore that have missed out recently. I’ve had a ton of really good ones for years. The last big miss was February 2010? So what. That’s 12 years now. Not a bad track record. . Yeah definitely. They can have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Ground is extremely warm. Quite a bit of accumulation will be lost...wherever it does fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Well the weenie in me is hoping that the models have the placement wrong and that they are off with this by say 50 miles ,,,,, let me dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Ground is extremely warm. Quite a bit of accumulation will be lost...wherever it does fall... Nah. Temps will plummet. It will pile up down there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, psv88 said: Nah. Temps will plummet. It will pile up down there And it'll take a bit for the ground to catch up. Not saying all is lost but its going to have to thump in the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 DC area has been struggling mightily to see snow in recent years. I know the feeling, rooting for them here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This GFS forecast sounding highlights the uncertainty of where the northern snow cutoff from the dry air sets up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is a smidge better but still a big miss How is it a miss when most of the area was never a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, pstar3182 said: How is it a miss when most of the area was never a possibility? Why not? If I almost get hit by a car, and also was not expecting to be hit by the car, is that not still a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Interesting reply to that tweet. Regarding the euro sounding. Was wondering about this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, pstar3182 said: How is it a miss when most of the area was never a possibility? Says who ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Looking for the reasoning between the GFSs northward expansion of the precip field, I note a vortmax at H5 held back a bit in the evolution from the trough axis. I think that this keeps mid level confluence from pinching down across the northern mid-Atlantic. I think that's the big difference between the GFS and NAM solution. Also note that Jetstream aloft is unimpressive on all modelling, lending credence to the dryer solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Why not? If I almost get hit by a car, and also was not expecting to be hit by the car, is that not still a miss? It's flawed logic. Every Atlantic hurricane that fails to make landfall is a near miss for the Northeast? Wish casting gone wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: And it'll take a bit for the ground to catch up. Not saying all is lost but its going to have to thump in the beginning. If it comes down heavy from the start it won’t have any issue accumulating at all. Good for DC to Atlantic City but suppression sucks. And this definitely will be one where it goes from all out heavy snow to flurries in 50 miles or less. Models are showing the brutal cutoff and I believe it. Dry air is pushing down as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, pstar3182 said: It's flawed logic. Every Atlantic hurricane that fails to make landfall is a near miss for the Northeast? Wish casting gone wrong... what? Thats not how this works. The storm is a close miss because its…ready for this…almost hitting us. Not sure what the debate is here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Interesting reply to that tweet. Regarding the euro sounding. Was wondering about this. Yeah, we’ll need a further north track like the Euro to moisten up the lower layers. The 18z hi res NAM still further south. But it shares the very dry lower layer. This may come down to nowcast time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: We used to say we got NAMd. So it’s not a good sign the NAM is south. But anything can happen I guess. So close. Agree. Not having the NAM in a setup like this gives me pause. The mesos are all south...which is why im not expecting much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: Agree. Not having the NAM in a setup like this gives me pause. The mesos are all south...which is why im not expecting much Best to go into this not expecting much. Rates will likely be light which means mostly a grass and car topper. Obviously this isn’t a true repeat of feb 5/6 10 but the net results are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I’m in Brick by the River Rock so I’m hoping the cutoff is further north…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS south and drier. Pushes heavier precip further south in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I will he happy with 1-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I will he happy with 1-3 inches Big difference between 1 and 3 inches. My guess is you'd be happy with 3 and a little disappointed with 1. I won't be satisfied with anything less than 4, but I would still be excited by a dusting. I expect nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 OKX AFD has it summed up good (at least I think so) as of their 4:48pm update: All attention is then turned to the approaching low pressure system. This low will form along a frontal boundary over the southeastern CONUS late tonight as a shortwave trough digs through the Southern Plains. It will then track northeastward and pass just to our south and east. 12z guidance has continued to show the area now being on the far northern edge of the precipitation shield. This is a similar solution to what the GFS has been showing for the past several days. Given the cold air that will work into the area overnight tonight, and the low being far enough to our south and east, any precip that does fall over the area will be in the form of snow. Uncertainty still remains, especially given some dry air that needs to be overcome in the midlevels. This will overall be a minor light snow event. Snowfall totals are expected to be greatest over eastern Long Island, where 1-2 inches are possible. Farther west over northeastern NJ and NYC up to an inch is possible. Snow totals drop off farther north, with the CT coast and southern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley likely seeing less than an inch and far northern locations staying dry. Trends in track will need to be monitored given the nature of the tight gradient in QPF and snowfall. Timing of the event may be the biggest concern. Snow starts in the early morning hours on Monday and will continue through the evening. This could impact the morning commute and potentially the evening commute for eastern Long Island. With temperatures dropping quickly overnight tonight to below freezing, snow is expected to stick right away. Given the uncertainty that surrounds this system, and current light snowfall totals, have decided to hold off on any headlines over our area in collaboration with neighboring offices. Subsequent shifts will have to monitor new guidance and a Winter Weather Advisory may be possible for eastern Long Island. The area will likely be completely dry after 7PM and high pressure will build in behind the departing low. Skies clear quickly from west to east in the late evening and a cold night is expected. Winds will also be decreasing overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes, so there may be several hours of good radiational cooling conditions. This will be the case especially if any areas have a fresh snow cover. Lows Monday night are currently forecast to be in the low teens across the interior and the LI Pine Barrens, mid teens to low 20s elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 38 minutes ago, psv88 said: Agree. Not having the NAM in a setup like this gives me pause. The mesos are all south...which is why im not expecting much Yep. Up where we are this likely won’t be a big deal if anything at all. Sometimes models over correct NW as well at this stage so it wouldn’t surprise me if it edged back SE a little to something like the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Not sure hw relevant, but the RAP just moved about 100 miles north at 21Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 DC is getting a big snowstorm without blocking. Very weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep. Up where we are this likely won’t be a big deal if anything at all. Sometimes models over correct NW as well at this stage so it wouldn’t surprise me if it edged back SE a little to something like the Nam. Or maybe the Nam is late to the table I should be good for an inch or two but it will be tough seeing places to my south seeing alot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Not sure hw relevant, but the RAP just moved about 100 miles north at 21Z Actually the change from the preceding run is about 20-25 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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