winterwx21 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Going with the Nam? Possible but this will come down to 0z tonight. If you go with the NAM we get nothing at all. Not even a coating to an inch. But maybe something like what 12z RGEM is showing will happen, with our area on the northern fringe and getting brushed by a coating to an inch. Hard to be optimistic about more than that right now. When you have only 1 major model on your side, you certainly don't want it to be GFS. But stranger things have happened, so we still have a slight chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 SPC HREF from the 12z cycle... further north and heavier. Close call NYC. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: radars will look great here tomorrow and a lot of that in our area will be virga at the start......... A lot of us will be smoking cirrus… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Gefs west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, wdrag said: SPC HREF from the 12z cycle... further north and heavier. Close call NYC. I think the href has the right idea although I can see the 1" line getting into EWR and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, psv88 said: Haha the classic storm is in 24 hours no idea what to expect event. Welcome to 2022! You know what to expect You just dont like it though 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 You know what to expect You just dont like it though . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Man this is so close that its painful looking at this knowing 75-150 miles south of us are getting a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Cmc is a tick north Very nice for A.C southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Soooooo much variability. I think a watch will be needed for a portion of NYC subforum...up to and including Monmouth County to eastern LI. A watch is not a warning but it signifies potency and be alert. NWS can describe the options in the details. Watches should verify about 50% of the time, probably higher verification in shorter lead time. These graphics from the SPC SREF are surprising to me but not so for the GFS. Wow! Both the 03z and 09z have mean some where near 5" LGA. This is up from 0.2" 15z cycle yesterday and 2" in the 21z cycle yesterday. Big banding signal for for S NJ. NYC best time for a burst of snow seems 10A-1P. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Cmc keeps coming northwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc keeps coming northwest. Painful to look at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs west A lot of the members are tucked, but none really gaining latitude. We need this off DE and for it to move NE and not E or ENE. The GFS does look pretty interesting in the mid- and upper levels though. And I'm glad to see precipitation moving into southern OH - that's been a milepost for me in getting precip. to NYC. Right now tomorrow is shaping up to be a painful day of radar watching and wishing. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: A lot of the members are tucked, but none really gaining latitude. We need this off DE and for it to move NE and not E or ENE. The GFS does look pretty interesting in the mid- and upper levels though. And I'm glad to see precipitation moving into southern OH - that's been a milepost for me in getting precip. to NYC. Right now tomorrow is shaping up to be a painful day of radar watching and wishing. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, Rjay said: I think the href has the right idea although I can see the 1" line getting into EWR and NYC. I sort of do too... and NAM idea of dry layers near 850 MB looks good NYC, but this system is showing better 500MB separation and tending to go negative as it whips out to the se of Cape Cod. I do not like the SREF being so abundant this far north (especially SPC SREF plumes). It won't take much for big snow growth and I expect we will see 1-2"/hr snowfall rates for a couple of hours mid late morning somewhere very close to Toms River... may still be south of there but I think now is not the time to hold onto a snowfree forecast. Folks need to be aware of potential and if it misses south of NYC... excellent. I just don't think our modeling is that good to be so determinant that nothing will happen, in the face of the ensembles, GFS/ SPC SREF plumes etc. Mt Holly made the right move, 6 hours late but enough to prep their folks. Going to be quite a storm for 6-12 hours Baltimore area to ACY and probably a bit further nw. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, wdrag said: Soooooo much variability. I think a watch will be needed for a portion of NYC subforum...up to and including Monmouth County to eastern LI. A watch is not a warning but it signifies potency and be alert. NWS can describe the options in the details. Watches should verify about 50% of the time, probably higher verification in shorter lead time. These graphics from the SPC SREF are surprising to me but not so for the GFS. Wow! Both the 03z and 09z have mean some where near 5" LGA. This is up from 0.2" 15z cycle yesterday and 2" in the 21z cycle yesterday. Big banding signal for for S NJ. NYC best time for a burst of snow seems 10A-1P. Those plumes are amazingly well distributed. Tiny bit of clustering 0-2" and then good spacing from 2 -20". Right now I would go with some light snow, dusting to an inch for NYC. Still tons of dry air near 700mb. But big bust potential on the high end. I like WS watch to Monmouth Co. NJ. But what's the criteria there? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 UKMET looks unchanged from 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc keeps coming northwest. But we're still looking at SNJ, maybe coastal CNJ, and the Islands off MA for any appreciable snow. Maybe now we're also looking at LI possibly back to NYC as well as the SE coast of MA for an inch or two. That's not fundamentally different than where we were at yesterday. We need to see significant snow getting into northern MD, SEPA before we can start thinking about accumulating snow in and around NYC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: UKMET looks unchanged from 00z It's slightly northwest Good snows into SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, eduggs said: Those plumes are amazingly well distributed. Tiny bit of clustering 0-2" and then good spacing from 2 -20". Right now I would go with some light snow, dusting to an inch for NYC. Still tons of dry air near 700mb. But big bust potential on the high end. I like WS watch to Monmouth Co. NJ. But what's the criteria there? Criteria. My guess still 6 in 12 and 8 in 24. and/OR combined PUBLIC IMPACT. If I was in the drivers seat with more internal info and collaborating across the NWS borders, I'd argue for a watch = brief high impact potential in the 8A-4P time frame. It's a watch. Rush hour impact or residuals of and clearly there is big bust potential. Can't be afraid to be wrong. Preparation is critical for the infrastructure, already impacted by Covid. They can use the probs to help prep folks. If it misses south, the guidance is there to support the decision making. I add the possibly biased high SREF chc of 1"/hr. Use the legend for prob. I checked blizzard conditions and those are just 20 mi offshore of LI and the NJ coast at 18z Monday. By the way this graphic data is probably not used in NWS... i still it valuable for me from the old school days which for me still work well, with the exception of not having the improved details of modeled soundings and snow growth. Graphic added 1209P 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 If you loop the past 2 days of GFS runs, you see our system at H5 shift steadily south and west and become increasingly deep and negatively tilted. However, modeled heights off New England and the Canadian Maritimes have not really risen. As a result, we've seen the surface reflection really tuck up into western NC and push a lot of moisture further north into the mid-Atlantic. But regardless of this early northward push, the entire system inevitably gets shunted eastward, which prevents the precipitation shield from expanding NW up the coast. At some point, the main system could gain enough latitude that even with an eastward shunt most of the area is into plowable snow. But that would mean most of CPA is already in the game. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Also, probably gone unnoticed GFS nothing for the 7th... GGEM snowstorm I95 nwwd. Mondays storm is first up. If the GFS and SREF fail too high or the NWS ensemble blend and NAM are too low. There modelers will argue sensitivity to the interactions...they are correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: Criteria. My guess still 6 in 12 and 8 in 24. and/OR combined PUBLIC IMPACT. If I was in the drivers seat with more internal info and collaborating across the NWS borders, I'd argue for a watch = brief high impact potential in the 8A-4P time frame. It's a watch. Rush hour impact or residuals of and clearly there is big bust potential. Can't be afraid to be wrong. Preparation is critical for the infrastructure, already impacted by Covid. They can use the probs to help prep folks. If it misses south, the guidance is there to support the decision making. I add the possibly biased high SREF chc of 1"/hr. Use the legend for prob. I checked blizzard conditions and those are just 20 mi offshore of LI and the NJ coast at 18z Monday. By the way this graphic data is probably not used in NWS... i still it valuable for me from the old school days which for me still work well, with the exception of not having the improved details of modeled soundings and snow growth. If you're a person in, say, Asbury Park, NJ, with an average interest in the weather... how are you supposed to interpret: 20% chance of <1" 50% chance >2" 30% chance of 6"+ (in 8 hours) 10% chance of 10"+ I guess you go with the Watch. But the public doesn't read forecast discussions. I guess people just check their weather apps nowadays. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The 12z guidance would put ACY in top 10 snowiest January day range. Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Period of record: 1945-01-31 to 2022-01-01 1 14.3 1987-01-26 2 13.2 2018-01-04 3 12.9 1964-01-13 4 12.7 1996-01-07 5 10.1 2016-01-23 6 8.3 2000-01-25 7 8.0 1961-01-19 8 7.7 2011-01-08 9 7.6 2010-01-30 10 7.4 1958-01-07 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Added the criteria for 12 hour WATCH snowfall. It's verified as an average in the zone-county. THIS I NOT a NWS snowfall forecast map, only answering some of the base criteria for issuing a WATCH. Pleas make sure this is not mis interpreted as a snowfall forecast map. Color coded here you are. Also a link to the NWS snow probabilities and Winter Storm Severity Index is below, as of 10AM. https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, eduggs said: If you're a person in, say, Asbury Park, NJ, with an average interest in the weather... how are you supposed to interpret: 20% chance of <1" 50% chance >2" 30% chance of 6"+ (in 8 hours) 10% chance of 10"+ I guess you go with the Watch. But the public doesn't read forecast discussions. I guess people just check their weather apps nowadays. On the above: I'd rewrite 20% chance of less than 1" to 80% chance of greater than 1" Then go from there... Ate least I know to expect snow. The probs we derive are generated from collaborated 3 hourly or sometimes 1 hour snowfall information blended with the National Center. These tend to miss the high end of storms, and I think tend to be conservative but the latter is my opinion only. They are only as good as the modeling we chose to use... Note: I add the 08z NDFD graphic for snowfall. No wonder we are a little behind. Nada Philly area and LI. now the 17z... note big increases including 2"LI and 5" s NJ. I think we had some info at 08z that ddid not get into the NWS NDFD forecast. Hence the thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 That increase by the way was added between 0830-10z... but 08Z is what helped bias the conservative ensemble approach. It's quite a process with few staff at 330AM to make big changes to the products... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, wdrag said: Added the criteria for 12 hour WATCH snowfall. It's verified as an average in the zone-county. Color coded here you are. Also a link to the NWS snow probabilities and Winter Storm Severity Index is below, as of 10AM. https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter Someone's gonna initially read this as an expected snowfall map. Besides me, I mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Someone's gonna initially read this as an expected snowfall map. Besides me, I mean I hope our forum members read. I'll rereview and attempt to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro is similar to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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