forkyfork Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 we might have just enough time to get into the snow shield 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Last 3 runs of the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Nam continues the NW tick. S NJ now gets a good snowstorm. Models are still ticking north so the trend ain't done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 the NAM made a huge shift at 500mb, namely in the positive interaction of the NS rather than a negative confluent push, as we had seen a couple of days ago the initial vort is more amped, which is great, but the NS is now helping to turn heights in a more southerly direction. look at the wind bards S of LI: almost due S from WSW last run. this drastically changes the angle of the PVA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nam continues the NW tick. S NJ now gets a good snowstorm. Models are still ticking north so the trend ain't done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Mt. Holly issues WSW for much of DE and southernmost NJ including Atlantic and Cape May counties for up to 4-6” of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Latest Gfs stops the NW trend. I think it'll be difficult to tick further from this point on but we'll see. Could be a very painful radar come Monday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Latest Gfs stops the NW trend. I think it'll be difficult to tick further from this point on but we'll see. Could be a very painful radar come Monday morning. Very interesting day today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Sref has a 6 inch mean in LGA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Latest Gfs stops the NW trend. I think it'll be difficult to tick further from this point on but we'll see. Could be a very painful radar come Monday morning. Yet there were continued incremental improvements in the upper levels with less confluence/ stronger WAR. The north creeps may very well continue up until start time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6z RGEM is north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Will add the following: Potential 6-12 hour snowstorm even close to NYC 4A-4P Monday... here is some guidance that is conflicting but warrants concern for a potential 6+" event for parts of e LI, central NJ titrating down to flurries I84. Exactly what modeling is best... your call. We won't know for sure til Monday night which modeling has been most accurate in the longer and shorter range. NWS ensemble at 09z for >1" is still quite conservative NYC as is the SPC SREF. The HRRRX is also conservative but the normal SREF, last image is bullish. Click for more detail including legend for amounts. There may be a little melting at the start, otherwise, where it snows, it should become quite slippery on all surfaces. Driving possible e LI and central NJ coast if the heavier amounts occur. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro is north of 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Be interesting to see if trends continue. The better wave spacing and even slightly better adjustments to the height field recently have been helping. I'm watching the trends with that throughout the day. Nice to see the gfs do well with the idea of a system for a change. Not perfect by any means, but it had the better idea it would seem. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Be interesting to see if trends continue. The better wave spacing and even slightly better adjustments to the height field recently have been helping. I'm watching the trends with that throughout the day. Nice to see the gfs do well with the idea of a system for a change. Not perfect by any means, but it had the better idea it would seem. The confluence has also been weakening to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: The confluence has also been weakening to the north That's the wave spacing I'm talking about. This system today is getting out of the way a little quicker. Which helps tomorrow's system. Need that to continue. That allows the heights to rise a bit more between them. Instead of squashing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On one hand: Im not a fan of chasing these last minute northward trends. The general gist is a snowstorm just south of us…and 24 hours out, that is a good bet On the other hand: I wouldnt discount a northward trend on GFS. What garbage on last storm. That alone can not be baseline for prediction I know its a bad winter, but be careful of wishcasting… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, jfklganyc said: On one hand: Im not a fan of chasing these last minute northward trends. The general gist a snowstorm just south of us…and 24 hours out, that is a good bet On the other hand: I wouldnt discount a northward trend on GFS. What garbage on last storm. That alone can not be baseline for prediction I know its a bad winter, but be careful of wishcasting… Euro this horrible this time around No model is bullet proof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 What a present for me this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On one hand: Im not a fan of chasing these last minute northward trends. The general gist is a snowstorm just south of us…and 24 hours out, that is a good bet On the other hand: I wouldnt discount a northward trend on GFS. What garbage on last storm. That alone can not be baseline for prediction I know its a bad winter, but be careful of wishcasting… . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 As it stands currently as of this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Eps slightly more north west compared to 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Northern energy is really close to phasing with the low and bringing this more northwest on the eps 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This one’s going to the wire, wouldn’t shock me if you guys closer to NYC (and south) cash in on this one just as long as you let us inland folks have this weekend’s potential 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: This one’s going to the wire, wouldn’t shock me if you guys closer to NYC (and south) cash in on this one just as long as you let us inland folks have this weekend’s potential Why cant we ( inland folks ) get in on the fun for both 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Over 6 inches for LGA and 9 inches for central Jersey on the SREF. Close to 7 inches for JFK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 55 here currently this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Nam is awful until you get to SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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