clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, H2O said: 100% Bullshit according to DT That was before the Euro took a step toward the GFS. He will sending out an ALEET any minute now since the Euro moved. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Yay? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I don’t know how to post the animation here but looping the last 6 runs of the Euro at 500 shows a definite adjustment on the Euro in slowing down the SS vort and actually closes it off at 500. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB SREF NMB - North America 17km: my model of choice at this time. now that's a lot more fun than tracking the edge of light snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB SREF NMB - North America 17km: my model of choice at this time. Full brine watch in effect 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS+Euro+RGEM all show measurable snowfall for DCA, so the NAM really is on an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That was before the Euro took a step toward the GFS. He will sending out an ALEET any minute now since the Euro moved. Yeah it’s kinda funny that the GFS is crap to him but he won’t ever say the euro moved toward it. We know the GFS snow map is totally overdone tho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, H2O said: I take that back. This was worth you having too much time on your hands . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, H2O said: We know the GFS snow map is totally overdone tho Nah I getting 8 inches of snow Monday what do you mean. The best part is, when I checked to make the joke I was like, wow, I want what its smoking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Storm may actually have a chance now. They should hoist warnings now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, H2O said: They should hoist warnings now blizzard ones 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Told ya. Bwahahahaha! It’s hard to tell if his main issue is just the raw snowfall output or the actual evolution at 500/surface that the GFS is showing. He makes it seem (in the last image), that his main issue is verbatim trusting the 10:1 snowfall maps in this setup vs precip getting into the cities. ETA: Anyone trusting the 10:1 maps in this is fraught for disappointment IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z v. 18z EURO slight bump north That’s way more than slight. With these trends today I don’t think it’s unreasonable at all to think more is likely to come. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: It’s hard to tell if his main issue is just the raw snowfall output or the actual evolution at 500/surface that the GFS is showing. He makes it seem (in the last image), that his main issue is verbatim trusting the 10:1 snowfall maps in this setup vs precip getting into the cities. Yeah. I deleted the post because it was the one already being referenced. He has a point in his last update about the wet ground and warm temps having an effect on any accumulations. I like to jab at him because he has blocked me on just about every platform he is on. But the guy knows more about NE snowstorms than I could ever hope to know. He knows his shit. The problem is he is a shit about the way he talks to people. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, nj2va said: I don’t know how to post the animation here but looping the last 6 runs of the Euro at 500 shows a definite adjustment on the Euro in slowing down the SS vort and actually closes it off at 500. I think what’s slowing it is now it isn’t being pushed along by the ns. That’s the key feature with this I do believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I deleted the post because it was the one already being referenced. He has a point in his last update about the wet ground and warm temps having an effect on any accumulations. I like to jab at him because he has blocked me on just about every platform he is on. But the guy knows more about NE snowstorms than I could ever hope to know. He knows his shit. The problem is he is a shit about the way he talks to people. He’s been wrong a bunch too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think what’s slowing it is now it isn’t being pushed along by the ns. That’s the key feature with this I do believe Yep, allows the SS vort to amplify enough for us. It’s not a surprise looking at the 500 trend on the Euro that its slowly been correcting n/nw with the surface/precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Baltimore/Washington office isn’t bullish yet. map updated 7:08. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: Baltimore/Washington office isn’t bullish yet. map updated 7:08. That looks amazing. So much better than I thought. This thing has legs for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: Baltimore/Washington office isn’t bullish yet. map updated 7:08. The <1” line was barely on the map last time. And always best for us when LWX is playing catch up vs adjusting downwards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Waiting for the sleet line to show up next 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Calling PSU! If this continues into tomorrow, let's get that zoom call scheduled! If it still looks good I can set up something tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NWS forecast went from cloudy to 40% snow chance here for tomorrow night in about 3 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 33 minutes ago, nj2va said: Another bump like that at 0z and DC is in the 4-5” range. I don't approve of starting a storm thread since it's not a region-wide event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Hope the ICON shifts north for the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Good to see the EUro somewhat on board. I still want to wait for 00z before getting too excited. I've seen occasional run cycles where all guidance hiccups, and shows something odd before reverting back 6hrs later. This did seem like a pretty big jump from whats been shown the past several days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, CntrTim85 said: What's up next? NAM, Icon, GFS, Euro? Yes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said: What's up next? NAM, Icon, GFS, Euro? NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The pre -event temperatures will result in rapid melting except in grassy and elevated surfaces unless the SFR is very heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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