Deck Pic Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Look you know me. I’m on team bitter Enders…we go all the way to the bitter end. I’m not being a dick here, but how can you have faith in the GFS, being the only one showing it? We usually do well when it's 65 like 10 hours before onset. 6 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 FWIW, GFS has a low of 10 at DCA overnight Monday. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 36 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Watch the 18z GFS after sticking with its solution just turn into the NAM after the other models start to come to its solution. Reverse psychology for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Calling PSU! If this continues into tomorrow, let's get that zoom call scheduled! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 RGEM and GEFS have gone further north. Looking better for you guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 This is the most important 18z Euro run since 24 hours ago. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: FWIW, GFS has a low of 10 at DCA overnight Monday. Snow on the ground and radiational cooling. Duh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We usually do well when it's 65 like 10 hours before onset. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I need this snow for various reason but I know better to think it will happen. North trends just mean more chance for sleet for me and the usuals will cash in just because they always do. Seen this before about a billion times. Congrats Winchester and points NW yet again 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, H2O said: I need this snow for various reason but I know better to think it will happen. North trends just mean more chance for sleet for me and the usuals will cash in just because they always do. Seen this before about a billion times. Congrats Winchester and points NW yet again There's not a lot of time for the system to come much farther north. We're within 48 hours! Losing it south is the biggest concern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Exactly It is a different setup than the usual anafrontal finger cross....Ninas can be super volatile with rapid swings. Count me in... 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Look you know me. I’m on team bitter Enders…we go all the way to the bitter end. I’m not being a dick here, but how can you have faith in the GFS, being the only one showing it? I’m just watching the trends, not the actual result. I’ll admit I’m a little more optimistic today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m just watching the trends, not the actual result. I’ll admit I’m a little more optimistic today. God bless you 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: There's not a lot of time for the system to come much farther north. We're within 48 hours! Losing it south is the biggest concern. There’s plenty of time because it won’t take much in the way of changes. They only need be minor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There’s plenty of time because it won’t take much in the way of changes. They only need be minor. I did notice a nice high placement on the euro even though the system was slightly to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: We usually do well when it's 65 like 10 hours before onset. The NAM knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 00z will be the most important run this year. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 00z will be the most important run this year.Gfs says snow on snow. Great winter so far 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs says snow on snow. Great digital winter so far FYP 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The 18z Euro will shift the precip a bit further SE, with snow tv for my yard and an inch or 2 for the DE/MD beaches. Just a guess, or call it intuition. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, H2O said: I need this snow for various reason but I know better to think it will happen. North trends just mean more chance for sleet for me and the usuals will cash in just because they always do. Seen this before about a billion times. Congrats Winchester and points NW yet again The best comes with surprise! Jan 25, 2000 seems like yesterday for us but I remember how that storm came like a thief in the night and it did not disappoint! Back then I was working downtown, graveyard shift. I just got a TV card installed in my wife's PC (yeah I'm a computer nerd!) and was adding the cable channels. It was way past my nap time, close to 10PM or so and I remember stopping on TWC to see the radar at the 8s as they called it. Was curious about the returns offshore and how they were moving west. Watched forecasts, no advisories and latest was chance of a few flurries or so. Expecting a quiet night at the office, I remember dozing off in my chair after lunch break (3AM) and hearing a flurry of activity on the two ways (sorry, could not resist the pun!). Stuff for custodians scrambling for snow removal duties and getting mechanics (who I was in charge of) getting the plows ready. I walked over to a window and heard pingers or so I thought! HEAVY flakes, around the low pressure sodium dock lights looked like a lethal swarm of Africanized honeybees attacking the sun from what I remember. Drives and walks completely caved and white including the drainage grates! Whew! I headed to the stairwell, got to the roof, threw open the door and was greeted by a facefull of stinging dendrites that felt like the equivalent of a 20 pound sack of Uncle Ben's rice that was teleported from Neptune hurled at my face! The winds were swirling the stuff around on the planks and I just knew this meant trouble! Back to the computer on my desk, checked out the usual stuff and found we were in a winter storm warning for 10 inches or more accumulation. My how things change. That was a fun storm, trip home not so fun without four wheel drive as Orleans St. was completely untreated and by that time there was a good 7" on the roads. Anyone else have 01/25/2000 memories? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There’s plenty of time because it won’t take much in the way of changes. They only need be minor. Good calls today... I honestly wrote this one off for up this way. With the qpf output from the GFS it looks like I will stay up for the 0z runs. Expectations have been elevated to just above ground level! Just need this thing to continue to amp up.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 18z Euro will shift the precip a bit further SE, with snow tv for my yard and an inch or 2 for the DE/MD beaches. Just a guess, or call it intuition. Yeah that would be terrible to see CAPE. Have we ever had the 18z euro since it’s inception make a big move from the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 18z Euro will shift the precip a bit further SE, with snow tv for my yard and an inch or 2 for the DE/MD beaches. Just a guess, or call it intuition. 18z euro will shift NW enough to get .5” into DC, and keep us all on the hook before it and all others fold to NAM by 06z tomorrow. (Reverse logic!) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just a ridiculous run over run change for GEFS within 48 hours of gametime. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, Amped said: 00z will be the most important run this year. Gfs says snow on snow. Great winter so far Austin was 12 degrees and heavy snow in mid february. Miracles happen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 So far we have the GFS, RGEM, HRRR, and HRDPS all agreeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Just a ridiculous run over run change for GEFS within 48 hours of gametime. I think there’s more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I think there’s more to come I’m sticking with you. Your star is rising and I want in. Close to the 6 inch line for my yard. Whoda thunk it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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