jayyy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Only an advisory for eastern Howard county for 2-4”. Looks like they are leaning toward the southern solutions. Watch them get 6-10” now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Someone make an obs/nowcast thread. Need to track DCA temps and Pittsburgh pressure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 54 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you elaborate here. This is an aspect I don’t understand all that well. Thanks in advance to any who reply. The WV is often the easiest way to see the mid level flow and moisture transport. Start of the loop you can pick out the mid level low and associated flow. It’s still positively tilted here (flow has a west to east component to it). Here it’s SW to NE but by the end of the loop you can see the flow is “backing” or taking on less W to E component. It’s almost neutral here. If the flow actually takes on some E to W component that’s when it’s negative (against the predominant W-E mid lat flow). The sooner the flow backs the more likely the system will be more amplified and come further north. Or at the least have a more expansive precip shield due to better moisture transport into the cold sector north of the low track. 6 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The WV is often the easiest way to see the mid level flow and moisture transport. Start of the loop you can pick out the mid level low and associated flow. It’s still positively tilted here (flow has a west to east component to it). Here it’s SW to NE but by the end of the loop you can see the flow is “backing” or taking on less W to E component. It’s almost neutral here. If the flow actually takes on some E to W component that’s when it’s negative (against the predominant W-E mid lat flow). The sooner the flow backs the more likely the system will be more amplified and come further north. Or at the least have a more expansive precip shield due to better moisture transport into the cold sector north of the low track. Oh wow thank you for that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Someone make an obs/nowcast thread. Need to track DCA temps and Pittsburgh pressure. I feel seen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Someone make an obs/nowcast thread. Need to track DCA temps and Pittsburgh pressure. What's the temperature in short pump right now? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Although warm we’ve been w cloudy for days so no sun ground warmth. Once it starts the top 1/2” of the soil gets cold enough to accumulate the snow. What the more pronounced effect can be is that as snow pack deepens the warm radiates out and melts somewhat from bottom upward warm ground, daytime and 33-34 is really tough almost no matter what the rates. Nighttime and 30-32 not an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The WV is often the easiest way to see the mid level flow and moisture transport. Start of the loop you can pick out the mid level low and associated flow. It’s still positively tilted here (flow has a west to east component to it). Here it’s SW to NE but by the end of the loop you can see the flow is “backing” or taking on less W to E component. It’s almost neutral here. If the flow actually takes on some E to W component that’s when it’s negative (against the predominant W-E mid lat flow). The sooner the flow backs the more likely the system will be more amplified and come further north. Or at the least have a more expansive precip shield due to better moisture transport into the cold sector north of the low track. Going to be a pretty cool loop over the next 12hrs when the troff rapidly establishes a negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Although warm we’ve been w cloudy for days so no sun ground warmth. Once it starts the top 1/2” of the soil gets cold enough to accumulate the snow. What the more pronounced effect can be is that as snow pack deepens the warm radiates out and melts somewhat from bottom upward warm ground, daytime and 33-34 is really tough almost no matter what the rates. Nighttime and 30-32 not an issue. That melting from the bottom up can create awful roads one r the temp goes well below freezing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: GFS trend map just continues West Just 1 or 2 more ticks and we're all extremely happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That melting from the bottom up can create awful roads one r the temp goes well below freezing It’s also gonna be cold tomorrow night, anything that falls tomorrow will hard freeze 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, mappy said: It’s also gonna be cold tomorrow night, anything that falls tomorrow will hard freeze Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Everyone but Ellenwood going super conservative to start. CWGs map is light but they say as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That melting from the bottom up can create awful roads one r the temp goes well below freezing It could be a nightmare, that's for sure. No one's really thinking about snow in Canton it seems due to the temps today. Target still had shovels galore. And so, I parked my car near the top of an uphill one-way. Hopefully everyone having trouble driving up just slides back down harmlessly... condolences to the cars at the bottom. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: It’s also gonna be cold tomorrow night, anything that falls tomorrow will hard freeze DCA streak of days above 22F looks to be in jeopardy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Justin Berk’s is reasonably done. Not as good as my earlier map of course. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 American (GFS): 16-18 inches. HRRR: 10-12 inches. European: 10-12 inches. Canadian: 10 inches. High-resolution Canadian: 8-10 inches. NAM: 2-4 inches. High-resolution NAM: 1-3 inches Found this from the CWG article and found it funny with the GFS just sitting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: Justin Berk’s is reasonably done. Not as good as my earlier map of course. I don’t hate it since it has me in the 8” band. ::weenie:: But man, that map is hard to read - difficult to see the county/etc boundaries. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: Justin Berk’s is reasonably done. Not as good as my earlier map of course. Balitmore? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I bought heat mats for my stone pavers that run from my front door to my driveway. If I put them out, the NAM will be correct, if I don’t the GFS will score its coup. I will wait until 18Z to decide what to do.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8” as the “low end confident number” in South DC and DCA? That’s ballsy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, fourseasons said: Balitmore? See page 29 of this thread. Second post down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: 8” as the “low end confident number” in South DC and DCA? That’s ballsy! It's not realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 In Berkeley Springs, WV for this one. All it took for DCA to jackpot was for me to be out of town. Enjoy y'all! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Cobb output for DCA from GFS (This would be one wild hour). Be skeptical, very skeptical ... YYMMDD FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF 220103/12Z 24 02010KT 29.4F SNOW 15:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.315 https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kdca 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 34 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Anxiously awaiting the last-minute N/W shift Not our storm for a jack. But the proverbial we will get better ratios thing is in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: What's the temperature in short pump right now? 61/60 https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KVAHENRI32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 151 browsers….wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: 151 browsers….wow That's nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 CWG: 0-12" 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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