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January 3 CAPE Storm


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Just now, DDweatherman said:

It is similar to 6z but upstairs is a hair better again. Not a bad spot to be in considering what we’ve seen the last few runs of both the GFS/Euro and the “trends” that have consistently pushed the goods further and further NW. Temp profiles are nice too. 

I was looking at total precip, not 24hr and forgot about the overnight precip. All good. 

its actually better up here lol more precip. I wasn’t worried about the temps where I’m at. 

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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

It is similar to 6z but upstairs is a hair better again. Not a bad spot to be in considering what we’ve seen the last few runs of both the GFS/Euro and the “trends” that have consistently pushed the goods further and further NW. Temp profiles are nice too. 

I was comparing to 0z. Sorry didn’t make that clear. Oops lol

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9 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

I think I get a handful of images to share per year or something as a goody two shoes with a subscription? One can't hurt... anyway I would echo Chill's comments, the jack looks suspicious between DC and Baltimore, but that's a lot of pink regardless.

index.thumb.png.13b50552dfae4bc121297241834ea87c.png

Jackpot is over my yard. I'll take. 

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25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He used the ICON as his baseline? 

giphy.gif

Honestly I think I could do as good as a social media met and make money at it.  Just parrot the model every so often and use big words.  Amongst my friends I look like a genius for this storm and I don't know shit about weather.  

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54 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can you elaborate here. This is an aspect I don’t understand all that well. Thanks in advance to any who reply.

The WV is often the easiest way to see the mid level flow and moisture transport. 
 

Start of the loop you can pick out the mid level low and associated flow. It’s still positively tilted here (flow has a west to east component to it). Here it’s SW to NE

24r10J1.jpg

but by the end of the loop you can see the flow is “backing” or taking on less W to E component. It’s almost neutral here. 
0yJvJhy.jpg

If the flow actually takes on some E to W component that’s when it’s negative (against the predominant W-E mid lat flow). 
 

The sooner the flow backs the more likely the system will be more amplified and come further north. Or at the least have a more expansive precip shield due to better moisture transport into the cold sector north of the low track. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The WV is often the easiest way to see the mid level flow and moisture transport. 
 

Start of the loop you can pick out the mid level low and associated flow. It’s still positively tilted here (flow has a west to east component to it). Here it’s SW to NE

24r10J1.jpg

but by the end of the loop you can see the flow is “backing” or taking on less W to E component. It’s almost neutral here. 
0yJvJhy.jpg

If the flow actually takes on some E to W component that’s when it’s negative (against the predominant W-E mid lat flow). 
 

The sooner the flow backs the more likely the system will be more amplified and come further north. Or at the least have a more expansive precip shield due to better moisture transport into the cold sector north of the low track. 

Oh wow thank you for that.

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Although warm we’ve been w cloudy for days so no sun ground warmth.  Once it starts the top 1/2” of the soil gets cold enough to accumulate the snow.  What the more pronounced effect can be is that as snow pack deepens the warm radiates out and melts somewhat from bottom upward

warm ground, daytime and 33-34 is really tough almost no matter what the rates.  Nighttime and 30-32 not an issue. 

 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The WV is often the easiest way to see the mid level flow and moisture transport. 
 

Start of the loop you can pick out the mid level low and associated flow. It’s still positively tilted here (flow has a west to east component to it). Here it’s SW to NE

24r10J1.jpg

but by the end of the loop you can see the flow is “backing” or taking on less W to E component. It’s almost neutral here. 
0yJvJhy.jpg

If the flow actually takes on some E to W component that’s when it’s negative (against the predominant W-E mid lat flow). 
 

The sooner the flow backs the more likely the system will be more amplified and come further north. Or at the least have a more expansive precip shield due to better moisture transport into the cold sector north of the low track. 

Going to be a pretty cool loop over the next 12hrs when the troff rapidly establishes a negative tilt.

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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Although warm we’ve been w cloudy for days so no sun ground warmth.  Once it starts the top 1/2” of the soil gets cold enough to accumulate the snow.  What the more pronounced effect can be is that as snow pack deepens the warm radiates out and melts somewhat from bottom upward

warm ground, daytime and 33-34 is really tough almost no matter what the rates.  Nighttime and 30-32 not an issue. 

 

That melting from the bottom up can create awful roads one r the temp goes well below freezing

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That melting from the bottom up can create awful roads one r the temp goes well below freezing

It’s also gonna be cold tomorrow night, anything that falls tomorrow will hard freeze 

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