mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: It is similar to 6z but upstairs is a hair better again. Not a bad spot to be in considering what we’ve seen the last few runs of both the GFS/Euro and the “trends” that have consistently pushed the goods further and further NW. Temp profiles are nice too. I was looking at total precip, not 24hr and forgot about the overnight precip. All good. its actually better up here lol more precip. I wasn’t worried about the temps where I’m at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Current 1pm obs: mixed clouds, 61.8F/62DP Baro falling Dear God man, what’s Pittsburgh’s barometric pressure!?!?!!!!???? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Front moving thru Frederick right now and main precip mass about half north of Atlanta and half south with a northeast trajectory so all looking good right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 When do the warnings get hoisted for moco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Let’s just say I’m going to be asleep and not reading the meltdowns in the obs thread when it’s 53F at DCA at midnight Unless Shaun Mannion has a career night I won't be up either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It is similar to 6z but upstairs is a hair better again. Not a bad spot to be in considering what we’ve seen the last few runs of both the GFS/Euro and the “trends” that have consistently pushed the goods further and further NW. Temp profiles are nice too. I was comparing to 0z. Sorry didn’t make that clear. Oops lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dear God man, what’s Pittsburgh’s barometric pressure!?!?!!!!???? Better than Betty Whites blood pressure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, baltosquid said: I think I get a handful of images to share per year or something as a goody two shoes with a subscription? One can't hurt... anyway I would echo Chill's comments, the jack looks suspicious between DC and Baltimore, but that's a lot of pink regardless. Jackpot is over my yard. I'll take. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Anxiously awaiting the last-minute N/W shift 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: He used the ICON as his baseline? Honestly I think I could do as good as a social media met and make money at it. Just parrot the model every so often and use big words. Amongst my friends I look like a genius for this storm and I don't know shit about weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 @CAPE where is the OBS thread for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Interstate said: @CAPE where is the OBS thread for the storm? Thread would read better if we waited until it wasn't 80 outside. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Anxiously awaiting the last-minute N/W shift Me too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro has DPs falling below freezing by midnight for most of the area (except areas S&E of DC which is later during the overnight). N&W areas’ DPs are below freezing later tonight. At least it won’t be 36/34 at the start of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: Thread would read better if we waited until it wasn't 80 outside. I am only at 56 here. I was told I would be at 60+ on Friday. Nope. Then Saturday. Nope. Then Sunday. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS trend map just continues West 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Thread would read better if we waited until it wasn't 80 outside. I just put some sourdough outside to rise. Please tell me when to go get it when this “cold front” drops thru 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Only an advisory for eastern Howard county for 2-4”. Looks like they are leaning toward the southern solutions. Watch them get 6-10” now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Someone make an obs/nowcast thread. Need to track DCA temps and Pittsburgh pressure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 54 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you elaborate here. This is an aspect I don’t understand all that well. Thanks in advance to any who reply. The WV is often the easiest way to see the mid level flow and moisture transport. Start of the loop you can pick out the mid level low and associated flow. It’s still positively tilted here (flow has a west to east component to it). Here it’s SW to NE but by the end of the loop you can see the flow is “backing” or taking on less W to E component. It’s almost neutral here. If the flow actually takes on some E to W component that’s when it’s negative (against the predominant W-E mid lat flow). The sooner the flow backs the more likely the system will be more amplified and come further north. Or at the least have a more expansive precip shield due to better moisture transport into the cold sector north of the low track. 6 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The WV is often the easiest way to see the mid level flow and moisture transport. Start of the loop you can pick out the mid level low and associated flow. It’s still positively tilted here (flow has a west to east component to it). Here it’s SW to NE but by the end of the loop you can see the flow is “backing” or taking on less W to E component. It’s almost neutral here. If the flow actually takes on some E to W component that’s when it’s negative (against the predominant W-E mid lat flow). The sooner the flow backs the more likely the system will be more amplified and come further north. Or at the least have a more expansive precip shield due to better moisture transport into the cold sector north of the low track. Oh wow thank you for that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Someone make an obs/nowcast thread. Need to track DCA temps and Pittsburgh pressure. I feel seen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Someone make an obs/nowcast thread. Need to track DCA temps and Pittsburgh pressure. What's the temperature in short pump right now? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Although warm we’ve been w cloudy for days so no sun ground warmth. Once it starts the top 1/2” of the soil gets cold enough to accumulate the snow. What the more pronounced effect can be is that as snow pack deepens the warm radiates out and melts somewhat from bottom upward warm ground, daytime and 33-34 is really tough almost no matter what the rates. Nighttime and 30-32 not an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The WV is often the easiest way to see the mid level flow and moisture transport. Start of the loop you can pick out the mid level low and associated flow. It’s still positively tilted here (flow has a west to east component to it). Here it’s SW to NE but by the end of the loop you can see the flow is “backing” or taking on less W to E component. It’s almost neutral here. If the flow actually takes on some E to W component that’s when it’s negative (against the predominant W-E mid lat flow). The sooner the flow backs the more likely the system will be more amplified and come further north. Or at the least have a more expansive precip shield due to better moisture transport into the cold sector north of the low track. Going to be a pretty cool loop over the next 12hrs when the troff rapidly establishes a negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Although warm we’ve been w cloudy for days so no sun ground warmth. Once it starts the top 1/2” of the soil gets cold enough to accumulate the snow. What the more pronounced effect can be is that as snow pack deepens the warm radiates out and melts somewhat from bottom upward warm ground, daytime and 33-34 is really tough almost no matter what the rates. Nighttime and 30-32 not an issue. That melting from the bottom up can create awful roads one r the temp goes well below freezing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: GFS trend map just continues West Just 1 or 2 more ticks and we're all extremely happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That melting from the bottom up can create awful roads one r the temp goes well below freezing It’s also gonna be cold tomorrow night, anything that falls tomorrow will hard freeze 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, mappy said: It’s also gonna be cold tomorrow night, anything that falls tomorrow will hard freeze Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Everyone but Ellenwood going super conservative to start. CWGs map is light but they say as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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