SnowenOutThere Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: Wow. I dont ever remember the Euro caving to the GFS like this. DT's head must be exploding. I just spit my drink out hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Ukie and Euro are both big shifts NW with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Best part is it has DCA at 28f during the height of the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: I look at the ICON as a side project. Europe undeniably has the most accurate global wx model in the world. Germans like making fancy techy sciency things and got jealous so they built their own. There are 2 versions. The lower res global version is what we see. The high res icon goes out 4 days and covers Europe. It's regarded as pretty accurate and even more accurate than the ECWMF in the short range. But from a global model perspective, it's 4th behind euro/gfs/cmc. It's certainly good enough to be useful but I'd be hesitant to put it #1 with an east coast snow storm in the short range. So you are saying the Germans should just get a participation trophy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Another 25-40 miles Baltimore and DC are in the 12-16 range crazy stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 It’s not as good up here compared to 00z, but looks good for you guys south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The NW trend sure seems alive. Yes it’s late but it could continue right up until it starts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, mappy said: It’s not as good up here compared to 00z, but looks good for you guys south Not sure I agree with you friend. From what I’m seeing your precip went up quite a bit. I haven’t looked at any snow maps though so I don’t know if some falls as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The NW trend sure seems alive. Yes it’s late but it could continue right up until it starts. Yep, right up until the post storm snow map looks just like our standard climo 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Yeah but what about my temps, man? Let’s just say I’m going to be asleep and not reading the meltdowns in the obs thread when it’s 53F at DCA at midnight 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Kuchera ratios from the Euro destroy I95... 20 inch jackpot between DC and Baltimore, 12-15 for each city. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Such a smol storm. I feel blessed that it ever happened a real thread the needle type situation. If we go by according to the ICON this will generate incredible frustration. I don't think this is storm mode material but considering the drought of good winter events it should be. Still not a region-wide event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, baltosquid said: Kuchera ratios from the Euro destroy I95... 20 inch jackpot between DC and Baltimore, 12-15 for each city. You have a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure I agree with you friend. From what I’m seeing your precip went up quite a bit. I haven’t looked at any snow maps though so I don’t know if some falls as rain. I’m only looking at precip totals, 00z had me at .7, now it’s .4 in fact it’s drier area wide, eastern shore was over 2 qpf, now it’s closer to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Let’s just say I’m going to be asleep and not reading the meltdowns in the obs thread when it’s 53F at DCA at midnight 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, baltosquid said: Kuchera ratios from the Euro destroy I95... 20 inch jackpot between DC and Baltimore, 12-15 for each city. Looks sweet but a jack stripe east of the fall line looks suspicious to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, mappy said: I’m only looking at precip totals, 00z had me at .7, now it’s .4 in fact it’s drier area wide, eastern shore was over 2 qpf, now it’s closer to 1 Are you sure? Not trying to be mean (I want you to get snow lol). I mean I think I know about where you are but maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 CMC, RGEM, and EURO look similar probably correct. GFS, HRRR shows the same track but amounts are probably overdone. ICON, NAM too far south, not on the winning team UKMET probably too far south but better than the ICON, NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: I’m only looking at precip totals, 00z had me at .7, now it’s .4 in fact it’s drier area wide, eastern shore was over 2 qpf, now it’s closer to 1 None of that sounds like destruction to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Doesn’t look like it’s done trending yet with adjustments like that. Starting to like my spot more (less temp issues), though definitely looking primo for Moco. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: You have a map? I think I get a handful of images to share per year or something as a goody two shoes with a subscription? One can't hurt... anyway I would echo Chill's comments, the jack looks suspicious between DC and Baltimore, but that's a lot of pink regardless. 6 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Hey @mappy I don’t see anywhere in that region of md that isn’t higher in precip and snow totals on euro. A lot higher in fact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Are you sure? Not trying to be mean (I want you to get snow lol). I mean I think I know about where you are but maybe not Last night's rain was included in the 00z run. 12z is much better for Northern md 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I’m only looking at precip totals, 00z had me at .7, now it’s .4 in fact it’s drier area wide, eastern shore was over 2 qpf, now it’s closer to 1 Part of this could be due to the fact that 0z still had some rain from overnight impacting totals Ninja'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: I think I get a handful of images to share per year or something as a goody two shoes with a subscription? Use imgur (or whatever hosting) and embed the link. Easiest way and basically unlimited 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Hey @mappy I don’t see anywhere in that region of md that isn’t higher in precip and snow totals on euro. A lot higher in fact. It’s really not terribly different over Baltimore county. Mappyland gets about 7” on Kuchera maps, similar to last run. Synoptic evolution and h5 says this could still end up more classic climo by the post storm analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Are you sure? Not trying to be mean (I want you to get snow lol). I mean I think I know about where you are but maybe not 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Hey @mappy I don’t see anywhere in that region of md that isn’t higher in precip and snow totals on euro. A lot higher in fact. Just now, Cobalt said: Part of this could be due to the fact that 0z still had some rain from overnight impacting totals Ninja'd Yeah, I see my mistake. Sorry haha 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Current 1pm obs: mixed clouds, 61.8F/62DP Baro falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Yeah, I see my mistake. Sorry haha It is similar to 6z but upstairs is a hair better again. Not a bad spot to be in considering what we’ve seen the last few runs of both the GFS/Euro and the “trends” that have consistently pushed the goods further and further NW. Temp profiles are nice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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