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January 3 CAPE Storm


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, high risk said:

         Will be retired.     NAM (parent and nest), RAP/HRRR, and Hi-Res Windows will be turned off when the RRFS is implemented (or very soon after).  

Is it possible for you to retire Vice Regents computer as well?

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2 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

I've simply never seen it he used in any meaningful discussions. I'll be sure to refer to it more.

It was really solid last year. It is often the most consistent model from range. I do think this storm has for whatever reason caused havoc with most models. If the gfs nails this it is truly a remarkable performance 

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

What is he seeing, exactly? I'm baffled by the hesitation. If you want to talk about sharp cutoffs, fine. But the GFS/CMC/Euro blended are nowhere remotely close to what he is saying. Good luck pinning your hopes to the Icon.

I guessing because the meso models aren’t picking up on the broader north precip expansion as GFS and Euro, he’s considering them overdone. 

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1 minute ago, Quasievil said:

I've simply never seen it he used in any meaningful discussions. I'll be sure to refer to it more.

I look at the ICON as a side project. Europe undeniably has the most accurate global wx model in the world. Germans like making fancy techy sciency things and got jealous so they built their own. There are 2 versions. The lower res global version is what we see. The high res icon goes out 4 days and covers Europe. It's regarded as pretty accurate and even more accurate than the ECWMF in the short range. But from a global model perspective, it's 4th behind euro/gfs/cmc. It's certainly good enough to be useful but I'd be hesitant to put it #1 with an east coast snow storm in the short range. 

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