H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: I know rates always win, but after being out in the yard for the past two hours, I believe that I would define the ground temps as “molten hot lava”. And that's not factoring in the temps of the pavement which is inner core of the sun hot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Good God it's hot outside. I mean like hot for real. I know snow can stick at 36 no prob. Will 56 be a problem tho? LWX should change the watches to flood ones 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Told my wife it’s gonna snow she said I’m full of shit because it’s 60+ degrees outside 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NWS actually gives us a good chance for an over-performer. Add it to the list: 1/30/2010 1/6/2015 1/12/2019 Pending: 1/3/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The storm knows the watches and warning boundaries. Just like they know when a thread is created 5 days before it arrives and using that info to jinx us. Lol they do know if a thread is created. That shit is voodoo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 A long list of real sh** that you can look back on with reliability. "Those were the days". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The storm knows the watches and warning boundaries. Just like they know when a thread is created 5 days before it arrives and using that info to jinx us. The storm knows when to do this. Just when the plane is coming into land 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 If the 12z GFS verifies LWX ain't going to look good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said: If the 12z GFS verifies LWX ain't going to look good. No forecaster/forecast will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, H2O said: The storm knows when to do this. Just when the plane is coming into land First thought I had when I saw this … pterodactyl And yes, I had to look up how to spell it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: If the 12z GFS verifies LWX ain't going to look good. To be fair, this has been hard to keep up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 A hush overcomes the crowd as the clock ticks toward the euro. My prediction is that it may move slightly nw but precip totals will be less than 2/3’s of what the gfs showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, snowfan said: No. That’s mathematically impossible. 12 minutes ago, H2O said: 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The storm knows the watches and warning boundaries. Just like they know when a thread is created 5 days before it arrives and using that info to jinx us. Thanks all, those were the replies I was expecting. Enjoy y’all’s snow. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: If the 12z GFS verifies LWX ain't going to look good. Honestly, I can buy into the conservative view here. You either A) go with what a progressive/la Nina 2021 pattern would produce or a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: To be fair, this has been hard to keep up with. Stop giving RR material to work with 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, H2O said: Stop giving RR material to work with Hell, he has a storeroom full of material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: Stop giving RR material to work with Nobody posted the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: Stop giving RR material to work with How did you know i had to bite my keyboard to stop from responding to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, H2O said: LWX should change the watches to flood ones FWIW, 12ZGFS and 06ZEURO get DC up to ~65F today before the crash. So at least there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Thanks all, those were the replies I was expecting. Enjoy y’all’s snow. I usually get rain when not under an advisory. But you are to the north and that rain changes to snow. It will snow. If you don't get snow I will light myself on fire. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Hell, he has a storeroom full of material. More like a warehouse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, H2O said: The storm knows when to do this. Just when the plane is coming into land 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Tommy T ain’t having it (much like a covid vaccine) 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 PLEASE extend the UHI fence to 2 miles west of DCA. My antique snow-remover got broken last year. ((Please think about those who shovel you out.)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Tommy T ain’t having it (much like a covid vaccine) He's the anti-Pann...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Forecasters are in a tough spot. If it verifies, it will be easy in hindsight to say "The trend was clearly visible and the GFS had it all along, and the NAM proved to have struggles with it. They should have given everyone a couple more inches on the forecast and moved the warnings north!" But back to the present, got to remember that the GFS is still juicing this more than any other model. So far, that admittedly looks like a decent bet, and it has got all the other models beginning to bend the knee. But it could be wrong in its own way too, and blending still rules, so no one is itching to jump out ahead of the trend. If the trend doesn't continue and follow that leap of faith to catch you, suddenly you're falling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 While we wait, I’d like to point out just how much more fun these things are when we DON’T go into storm mode. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Tommy T ain’t having it (much like a covid vaccine) Yeah, interesting his take here. Not having the ICON on our side, whatever, but the NAM still not onboard is concerning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Nobody posted the ICON. Such a smol storm. I feel blessed that it ever happened a real thread the needle type situation. If we go by according to the ICON this will generate incredible frustration. I don't think this is storm mode material but considering the drought of good winter events it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Honestly, I can buy into the conservative view here. You either A) go with what a progressive/la Nina 2021 pattern would produce or a major snowstorm. I can see not going with 10+ totals on the GFS because of possible mixing issues at the start. 2-4" is really low balling it though. Factor in a probable flash freeze and it's almost 100% chance of a high impact event that deserves a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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