IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Winter storm warning just hoisted! Was 3-5" but is now 5-7". Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Just got a WAA for Fairfax for 2-4”. It seems to be too conservative based on the latest information. Is that because they depend on the NAM? It's conservative, but not an unfair play if you're willing to upgrade to warnings in 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Stealing this from my region, thanks Tony, but this is the model that will be replacing the NAM soon. Let's see how it does... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: DC itself could end up with a wide range of outcomes based on tiny distances. You're in the best general area of DC so that's good. Foggy bottom or navy yard weenies may not be stoked bros after the storm is done. I think its the usual LWX SOP...upgrade as you go along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I'd wait for Sue Palka to weigh in Why would you do that when Gwen Tolbert is right there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Thermals going to hell really fast down here. I'll take some frontogenesis however. What a dope storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Stealing this from my region, thanks Tony, but this is the model that will be replacing the NAM soon. Let's see how it does... Sort of. Yes, the NAM (and RAP/HRRR and Hi-Res Windows) will be subsumed by a hi-res, hourly FV3 ensemble (called the RRFS), but the configuration of that hi-res FV3 is not what the configuration of the RRFS members will be (different physics, different initialization....). Think of this run that you showed as sort of a hi-res GFS for now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lol dc metro under weather advisory. Charles county s and e upgraded to warning. Ok Do I still get snow even though I’m not under any advisory? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, high risk said: Sort of. Yes, the NAM (and RAP/HRRR and Hi-Res Windows) will be subsumed by a hi-res, hourly FV3 ensemble (called the RRFS), but the configuration of that hi-res FV3 is not what the configuration of the RRFS members will be (different physics, different initialization....). Think of this run that you showed as sort of a hi-res GFS for now. What's the plan for the 3k NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NWS is pretty much using the NAM. Okay, hope that works out. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Hey, guys. I don't want to cause a panic but the sun is out and its 62F right now. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The WV loop is a thing of beauty. The flow is really backing in the TN valley. Can you elaborate here. This is an aspect I don’t understand all that well. Thanks in advance to any who reply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Do I still get snow even though I’m not under any advisory? No. That’s mathematically impossible. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Warn ground will not be an issue on Jan 2. I don’t care how warm it’s been for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Do I still get snow even though I’m not under any advisory? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Good God it's hot outside. I mean like hot for real. I know snow can stick at 36 no prob. Will 56 be a problem tho? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Do I still get snow even though I’m not under any advisory? The storm knows the watches and warning boundaries. Just like they know when a thread is created 5 days before it arrives and using that info to jinx us. 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: I know rates always win, but after being out in the yard for the past two hours, I believe that I would define the ground temps as “molten hot lava”. And that's not factoring in the temps of the pavement which is inner core of the sun hot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Good God it's hot outside. I mean like hot for real. I know snow can stick at 36 no prob. Will 56 be a problem tho? LWX should change the watches to flood ones 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Told my wife it’s gonna snow she said I’m full of shit because it’s 60+ degrees outside 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NWS actually gives us a good chance for an over-performer. Add it to the list: 1/30/2010 1/6/2015 1/12/2019 Pending: 1/3/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The storm knows the watches and warning boundaries. Just like they know when a thread is created 5 days before it arrives and using that info to jinx us. Lol they do know if a thread is created. That shit is voodoo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 A long list of real sh** that you can look back on with reliability. "Those were the days". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The storm knows the watches and warning boundaries. Just like they know when a thread is created 5 days before it arrives and using that info to jinx us. The storm knows when to do this. Just when the plane is coming into land 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 If the 12z GFS verifies LWX ain't going to look good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said: If the 12z GFS verifies LWX ain't going to look good. No forecaster/forecast will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, H2O said: The storm knows when to do this. Just when the plane is coming into land First thought I had when I saw this … pterodactyl And yes, I had to look up how to spell it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: If the 12z GFS verifies LWX ain't going to look good. To be fair, this has been hard to keep up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 A hush overcomes the crowd as the clock ticks toward the euro. My prediction is that it may move slightly nw but precip totals will be less than 2/3’s of what the gfs showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, snowfan said: No. That’s mathematically impossible. 12 minutes ago, H2O said: 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The storm knows the watches and warning boundaries. Just like they know when a thread is created 5 days before it arrives and using that info to jinx us. Thanks all, those were the replies I was expecting. Enjoy y’all’s snow. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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