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January 3 CAPE Storm


WxUSAF
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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

GFS is either gonna bust hard or score a nice win. Funny that the NAM wants absolutely nothing to do with this 

Pretty odd to see such disparity like this given the start of the 'event' is inside of 40 hours. Easy to say its the goddamn NAM though so who cares lol.

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Just now, CAPE said:

Pretty odd to see such disparity like this given the start of the 'event' is inside of 40 hours. Easy to say its the goddamn NAM though so who cares lol.

And it’s not just the GFS. They are all trending the same way, except for that one model lol

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice visual. Increasing separation from the northern stream with a stronger southern stream shortwave. Maybe even a slight negative tilt on the 18z??

Yep and that ns feature that was creating the lack of separation is becoming less deep, further north, and faster with each run. The models typical have ns features too far south. It’s why we always get screwed when looking at ns systems a few days in advance. I think models are typically too fast with ss systems and right on cue this one has slowed in the past few runs.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice visual. Increasing separation from the northern stream with a stronger southern stream shortwave. Maybe even a slight negative tilt on the 18z??

Watching the run come out, I knew when the 24&30 hour frames at h5 showed that continued separation of the N&S streams we were bound for a decent run. That's a much better reason for the trends than just trying to will the low and precip NW. 

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Sunday:Showers and very mild with later morning early afternoon high of 65  becoming windy from northwest 15-20 mph with falling temperatures to 40-45 at dark. Rain mixing with and changing to snow around midnight and continuing thru Monday until about noon, windy, cold high around 35. 

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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It was plain as day from h5 that that was coming.

I don’t think this trend can be ignored now.

Look you know me.  I’m on team bitter Enders…we go all the way to the bitter end.  I’m not being a dick here, but how can you have faith in the GFS, being the only one showing it?  

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

And it’s not just the GFS. They are all trending the same way, except for that one model lol

The GFS is either gonna score big, or go down in flames when the other guidance trends towards the NAM at 0z lol. It would get all the shit because it has been steadfast and has now upped the ante with a major snowstorm for a significant part of the region.

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Look you know me.  I’m on team bitter Enders…we go all the way to the bitter end.  I’m not being a dick here, but how can you have faith in the GFS, being the only one showing it?  

Hrrr and RGEM too? :yikes:

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

The GFS is either gonna score big, or go down in flames when the other guidance trends towards the NAM at 0z lol. It would get all the shit because it has been steadfast and has now upped the ante with a major snowstorm for a significant part of the region.

I’d love to see the 18z Euro agree with the GFS. If that happens I’d be less afraid of the NAM

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