Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: If the GFS verified it would be on DC's top ten snowfall list, number 3 if the clown known as the kuchera ratio is right and it only melts .5 of an inch or less. And it would be No.2 snowfall in a la nina second only to 1995/96, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: Yes that usually goes well. Bristow is a snow town….we call it Brisnow…Still half that and wow Bad news brother. The toy has a leak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: And it would be No.2 snowfall in a la nina second only to 1995/96, lol Which is why expectations should be kept in check. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Certainly reason to keep expectations in check wrt max accumulation. Warm ground temps + wetness will eat up some initial accums. Rates will overcome but I wouldn’t be expecting double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes that usually goes well. Bristow is a snow town….we call it Brisnow…Still half that and wow First Winter in Haymarket….let’s see how we fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Good news on the GFS for those of us to the NW is the expansion of the precip shield up into central PA. I figured we would start seeing that as the model runs closer the event came in. Still think the the battleground is further SE than normal and we dont end up seeing a death band out this way. But getting skunked seems unlikely at this point as well. Just glad we are actually about to see a decent region wide storm in a Nina. Enjoy everyone. 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Which is why expectations should be kept in check. Indeed...gonna be interesting to see if we get that rare nina balance of just enough ns but jot too much. NAM and ICOn give me pause because that's a typical way to fail in a nina...too much ns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Bad news brother. The toy has a leak. Sadness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 CMC takes another solid step NW, looks pretty close to GFS now with lower totals. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: First Winter in Haymarket….let’s see how we fair We often make dramatic showings that fall just short here in west Prince William County… The only place worse is East Prince William County… But welcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We often make dramatic showings that fall just short here in west Prince William County… The only place worse is East Prince William County… But welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=wv-mid The WV loop is a thing of beauty. The flow is really backing in the TN valley. This has a classic look for the mid Atlantic! Btw I still like to look at the WV sometimes just to get a feel for the flow. I’ll never forget being in the psu weather center the day before the Jan 2000 storm trying to argue with the meteorologists on duty that it was clear from the WV and IR that the mid and upper levels were way more amplified and the flow was backing much more than any of the nwp was showing over the Miss Valley. They were pretty dismissive…”it’s only 24 hours, the models would be picking up on it” lol 15 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowfan said: Certainly reason to keep expectations in check wrt max accumulation. Warm ground temps + wetness will eat up some initial accums. Rates will overcome but I wouldn’t be expecting double digits. The 'warm ground' theory has been debunked numerous times, most notably out west (CO front range, temps in the 70s one day, blizzard the next), but even here in the mid Atlantic as well. Especially along the coast (see Norfolk with the March 1980 snowstorm). Your point about the rates is spot on. Best case scenario I see is we crash to 32 with ripping fat flakes. There is certainly some instability, or very weak stability, to work with within the dendritic growth zone. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Sadness Maybe it'll be mostly rain:)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 38 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS has locked in on the big storm idea for 4 straight runs now, e incrementally better. Gotta go with it. Impressed that the GFS was the best (by far) handling H5 in the mid range. I got dragged in when the first few runs hit showing h5 closing off just east of the MS River in the deep south. That's part of our textbook here with southern stream shortwaves. Too soon = rain. Too late = furries or cirrus. Just right? Gfs is perfection, basically 9 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Hmmm, perhaps I should stay at my brother’s house in Ellicott City another night instead of heading back up to my house in Carroll County. I am off until Tuesday anyway! Looks like a better spot to be for this one (first time I’ve said this in several years) excited for you all in the southern half of the CWA! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 With my homemade python program which takes in the EURO, GFS, CMC and ICON input then weights each differently (EURO then CMC then GFS then ICON), it spit out a raw output of 6.93 not factoring in melt or anything. Fed the program 7, 15, 5, 0 for amounts so glad to see the output is somewhat realistic. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Impressed that the GFS was the best (by far) handling H5 in the mid range. I got dragged in when the first few runs hit showing h5 closing off just east of the MS River in the deep south. That's part of our textbook here with southern stream shortwaves. Too soon = rain. Too late = furries or cirrus. Just right? Gfs is perfection, basically So good to see you here my friend. Gfs truly is a thing of a beauty, and it’s been pretty damn consistent the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: The 'warm ground' theory has been debunked numerous times, most notably out west (CO front range, temps in the 70s one day, blizzard the next), but even here in the mid Atlantic as well. Especially along the coast (see Norfolk with the March 1980 snowstorm). Your point about the rates is spot on. Best case scenario I see is we crash to 32 with ripping fat flakes. There is certainly some instability, or very weak stability, to work with within the dendritic growth zone. Can you point to a reference on the warm ground debunking? Not arguing, I'm genuinely interested in reading more on it. My experience is the warm ground makes a 1" layer of slush but on top of that it's all snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, Scraff said: My first snowfall map I’ve ever attempted. Don’t be too harsh… Is that the same Sharpie that was used during Hurricane Dorian's Sharpiegate? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, batmanbrad said: Is that the same Sharpie that was used during Hurricane Dorian's Sharpiegate? So THAT'S where it went! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 So what are people thinking in terms of wasted precipitation? Do we have white rain for a few hours 1am-3am then start sticking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Mesmerizing to watch this trend. Just give it a bit more, and juice that shield.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, IronTy said: Can you point to a reference on the warm ground debunking? Not arguing, I'm genuinely interested in reading more on it. My experience is the warm ground makes a 1" layer of slush but on top of that it's all snow. Most of the long timers here debunked it through experience. All the doubt and hand wringing leading in then "shock and awe" that it stuck. IME, it usually comes down to the start. We all know the ground won't be frozen at all so how does it still pile up? Gotta get a quick start. Miller A's are good at that because the front side WAA snow usually comes in hot and heavy. It has to, otherwise the Pacman starts eating and never stops. If the front piece comes in in pulses and lulls...that's trouble. I've lost half of a storms qpf to melt/nonstick away too many times. 1"/hr rates at night will stick no problem above freezing. Gotta get the blanket down to maximize the cold side of the storm. March 2013 is a great example of how you get screwed even when qpf is good enough. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Mesmerizing to watch this trend. Just give it a bit more, and juice that shield.... Yeah, that trend is sick. Thanks for posting as this shows it very well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, batmanbrad said: Is that the same Sharpie that was used during Hurricane Dorian's Sharpiegate? Bigly northern cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Going to be a tough forecast for the NW burbs. They're just beyond the sharp cutoff of a storm trending NW. Probably need warnings up all the way to the MD line based on experience with past storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, IronTy said: Can you point to a reference on the warm ground debunking? Not arguing, I'm genuinely interested in reading more on it. My experience is the warm ground makes a 1" layer of slush but on top of that it's all snow. I think the cooling due to conduction, i.e. with cold rain at the outset, does a great deal pretty quickly. We often see road surface temps fall into the 30s pretty quickly. But you're absolutely correct -- that first layer would be slush, and overall, the depth of snow on the roads in this setup would be less than that over non-paved surfaces. Would be a mess to drive on. Like you all have said, it's a "rates" storm. We absolutely need that or it's essentially a non-event. Much like November 11th 1987. When it happens, it's a think of beauty. A pasty wet snowfall -- my favorite -- with clumping aggregate flakes. A low probability event to be sure, but we've got the setup going for us, as well as a consensus among most models now within 24 hrs of the event. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 49 minutes ago, Scraff said: My first snowfall map I’ve ever attempted. Don’t be too harsh… Just go 8-12.". Pretend to have confidence. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Most of the long timers here debunked it through experience. All the doubt and hand wringing leading in then "shock and awe" that it stuck. IME, it usually comes down to the start. We all know the ground won't be frozen at all so how does it still pile up? Gotta get a quick start. Miller A's are good at that because the front side WAA snow usually comes in hot and heavy. It has to, otherwise the Pacman starts eating and never stops. If the front piece comes in in pulses and lulls...that's trouble. I've lost half of a storms qpf to melt/nonstick away too many times. 1"/hr rates at night will stick no problem above freezing. Gotta get the blanket down to maximize the cold side of the storm. March 2013 is a great example of how you get screwed even when qpf is good enough. Good point, I agree on the pulsing. It's gotta push during the onset to build up a slush layer. If it comes and goes it ends up as an inch or two of slush. This is what happened during last winter's storm for us. Even during snowmageddon we had a solid inch of slush underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts