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January 3 CAPE Storm


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Good news on the GFS for those of us to the NW is the expansion of the precip shield up into central PA. I figured we would start seeing that as the model runs closer the event came in. Still think the the battleground is further SE than normal and we dont end up seeing a death band out this way. But getting skunked seems unlikely at this point as well. Just glad we are actually about to see a decent region wide storm in a Nina. Enjoy everyone. 

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=wv-mid

The WV loop is a thing of beauty. The flow is really backing in the TN valley. This has a classic look for the mid Atlantic!

Btw I still like to look at the WV sometimes just to get a feel for the flow. I’ll never forget being in the psu weather center the day before the Jan 2000 storm trying to argue with the meteorologists on duty that it was clear from the WV and IR that the mid and upper levels were way more amplified and the flow was backing much more than any of the nwp was showing over the Miss Valley.  They were pretty dismissive…”it’s only 24 hours, the models would be picking up on it”  lol  

 

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8 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Certainly reason to keep expectations in check wrt max accumulation. Warm ground temps + wetness will eat up some initial accums. Rates will overcome but I wouldn’t be expecting double digits.

The 'warm ground' theory has been debunked numerous times, most notably out west (CO front range, temps in the 70s one day, blizzard the next), but even here in the mid Atlantic as well. Especially along the coast (see Norfolk with the March 1980 snowstorm). 

Your point about the rates is spot on. Best case scenario I see is we crash to 32 with ripping fat flakes.  There is certainly some instability, or very weak stability, to work with within the dendritic growth zone. 

Screenshot_20220102-111654_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20220102-111730_Chrome.jpg

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