DDweatherman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, mappy said: lol the nam. Stop looking at it The one above is the ICON, but yeah no NAM watching. Problem with the icon even though it doesn’t carry much weight is that it has a bit of that northern stream interaction/interference we were getting rid of hence the nice improvements last night/overnight. Euro at 6z might have the best h5 look overall, and you saw what the outcome was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I have to agree with you about letting the chips fall. Coming from someone who moved from Baltimore to a more climo favored area like Westminster, and lived there for three years, I can honestly say I was never able to enjoy the fruits of my labor. Last winter it benefited me slightly to live there, But it was never anything drastic. There was the storm last year where Westminster got about 7 inches and Thurmont/Carroll Valley got 16 to 18. The cities had 3-4, but it was never the coastal runner that brought 4-6&mix in Baltimore and 12-15 in the NW burbs. Well here I am now living in Carroll Valley as of October, waiting to see if I can maximize another decent climo location. I'm not going to derail this thread anymore after this. I'm not the same Bob Chill I was for most of the past 15 years. The ROI on snow chasing around here is embarrassingly small. I've wasted enough time with it already. That chapter is closed. I wrote this winter off (as a good setup in general) back in Sept and never changed my mind. It still hasn't changed but that doesn't mean we don't back our way into acceptable events/totals. That said, I'm only going to be here for legit long track coastals and super short range and/or obs threads. I don't give a single F what any op shows d5+ unless it's a big dog. I'm not tracking any middle of the road shortwave beyond 48-72 hours and even then it's a very casual approach. My time is valuable and chasing ghosts is a complete and total waste of it 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I’m hugging the GFS. It was the first to detect this storm and it has led the entire way. Bring it on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, DonnieB said: Congrats to the central VA folks...NAM's and now ICON focusing on that area. Ooff! It’s never easy around here is it? I’ll certainly take the gfs/euro over the nam/icon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 AccuWeather is full bullish for my location. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Where is CRAS when you need something to make the NAM look good? At least NAM is on its own for now, but I do worry with these systems where we sit on the northwest side being a cutoff forecast challenge. SREFs look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: My time is valuable and chasing ghosts is an complete and total waste of it Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 RDPS is still decent for most folks, FWIW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, StormyClearweather said: RDPS is still decent for most folks, FWIW. Better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The one above is the ICON, but yeah no NAM watching. Problem with the icon even though it doesn’t carry much weight is that it has a bit of that northern stream interaction/interference we were getting rid of hence the nice improvements last night/overnight. Euro at 6z might have the best h5 look overall, and you saw what the outcome was there. At this point ya just let whatever happens happens and not stress over the models wavering. Take what you get, be happy with it and enjoy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Has Jim Cantore been spotted in the area yet? If not then forgettaboutit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It can happen. I only got 2.5” from the Jan 2019 storm. There was a storm in Jan 1987 that gave DC a foot and fringed up here. Jan 2010 also was like that. The orographic banding and super high ratios you described is why there will typically be that “deathband” up here. The added terrain lift along with colder temps typically causes better snow growth conditions here. I often have 20-1 ratios. But those factors won’t happen if we’re in the subsidence zone and that can happen if the storm track is far enough south. Right now the track is iffy if there will be enough mid level moisture transport into this area. One more tick north like last night and we probably would see the typical orographic effects up here but there needs to be good enough moisture to take advantage of that. It def can happen but your post illustrates my point perfectly. Once every 10-15 years it happens. And since it did (in my yard) in Jan 2019, we can discuss the next time as we approach 2030. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 HRRR continues to want to Amp up and dig this storm more and more 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Good morning everyone, here are my thoughts on the storm. 7 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not going to derail this thread anymore after this. I'm not the same Bob Chill I was for most of the past 15 years. The ROI on snow chasing around here is embarrassingly small. I've wasted enough time with it already. That chapter is closed. I wrote this winter off (as a good setup in general) back in Sept and never changed my mind. It still hasn't changed but that doesn't mean we don't back our way into acceptable events/totals. That said, I'm only going to be here for legit long track coastals and super short range and/or obs threads. I don't give a single F what any op shows d5+ unless it's a big dog. I'm not tracking any middle of the road shortwave beyond 48-72 hours and even then it's a very casual approach. My time is valuable and chasing ghosts is a complete and total waste of it i feel similarly about my time spent tracking the wizards/skins lol. the nba is truly still a superstar league and the wft/skins/hogs/red wolves/whatever they're gonna be need to figure out who's going to be their starting qb. re weather...the analysis part is fun...the lack of control is not. learning can kinda cancel that out and make you more wise about picking which storms to invest time in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Good morning everyone, here are my thoughts on the storm. Wow, must be expecting a south trend or hanging your hat on the NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Wow, must be expecting a south trend or hanging your hat on the NAM. Looks reasonable to me considering the antecedent conditions and the progressive nature of the pattern. You really buy those pretty WB clown maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 RGEM is actually a touch more NW and heavier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 RGEM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Looks reasonable to me considering the antecedent conditions and the progressive nature of the pattern. You really buy those pretty WB clown maps? It also seems pretty spot on to LWX’s WSW of 3-5” for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Looks reasonable to me considering the antecedent conditions and the progressive nature of the pattern. You really buy those pretty WB clown maps? No, I was more looking at how much snow he has so far south. I'd be super worried about rain and mixing down that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This has a very March 2009 feel to it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Wow, must be expecting a south trend or hanging your hat on the NAM. It actually looks very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks reasonable to me considering the antecedent conditions and the progressive nature of the pattern. You really buy those pretty WB clown maps? I agree, I’m not as optimistic about the 7-10” region but the rest looks exactly like mine. Hoping to lock in that look at 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Blade is on the Muck Truck and we're charging up. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 RGEM is an DCA to Annapolis crush job. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 i'd feel pretty good along that dc to bmore corridor for this one. maybe starts out sloppy, but per the gfs temps/dews are in the 20s by around sunrise. if those temps/rates are correct, the morning commute (for those commuting) could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: No, I was more looking at how much snow he has so far south. I'd be super worried about rain and mixing down that way. Have not seen much concern for that yet, other than at the beginning. Once the column cools, given the somewhat suppressed/offshore track of the low, it should remain all snow. Best fgen still progged there, so even with more marginal surface temps for at least part of the event, a longer duration of moderate/heavy snow in those areas should get it done. I might have placed the heaviest snow area slightly further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I love the RGEM as a weenie, but I think (based pretty much only on anecdotal evidence) it’s usually more bullish than warranted. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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