WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Ellinwood said: gm Notice how @Ellinwood maps don’t say 1st preliminary conditional hypothetical first guess? 4 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: gm Welcome back. We have missed you. Your maps are generally the best around here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Notice how @Ellinwood maps don’t say 1st preliminary conditional hypothetical first guess? He’s among the best. Now it’s real. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: gm Bullish! Nice! My skeptimeter is tingling with accum problems. My yard could see nearly 1" qpf but my weenie brain can't get past 4" of potatoes with mud underneath. I'll hug your map and stfu now 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 When @Ellinwood puts out a map, lock it up lock it in! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: gm We’re not in the dreaded gray. Celebration. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 One would have to think though that this couldn't trend N/W all the way to gametime. Models like HRRR at its latest run have pushed back S/E a bit. What I've been keying on all along for trend watching is the h5 presentation. A lot better than it was, but even on the 6z GFS you could see a little more press & influence from the presence of the N/S. If that area were to separate further and stay flat to the north, this would continue to press and allow negative tilt on our S/S wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We’re not in the dreaded gray. Celebration. He wanted to but his kids used up all the gray crayons coloring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the NW periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends.... Eta: another perspective is parrs/climo favored areas are still dancing in the subsidence zone... how often does that verify? It can happen. I only got 2.5” from the Jan 2019 storm. There was a storm in Jan 1987 that gave DC a foot and fringed up here. Jan 2010 also was like that. The orographic banding and super high ratios you described is why there will typically be that “deathband” up here. The added terrain lift along with colder temps typically causes better snow growth conditions here. I often have 20-1 ratios. But those factors won’t happen if we’re in the subsidence zone and that can happen if the storm track is far enough south. Right now the track is iffy if there will be enough mid level moisture transport into this area. One more tick north like last night and we probably would see the typical orographic effects up here but there needs to be good enough moisture to take advantage of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: since when do these things trend south moments before kickoff? In the hearts of men Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: since when do these things trend south moments before kickoff? Today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Today Yeah usually we just get the opposite of what we need at gametime these past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Here come the Debbie downers . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Here come the Debbie downers . And the daily post limited members. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: One would have to think though that this couldn't trend N/W all the way to gametime. Models like HRRR at its latest run have pushed back S/E a bit. What I've been keying on all along for trend watching is the h5 presentation. A lot better than it was, but even on the 6z GFS you could see a little more press & influence from the presence of the N/S. If that area were to separate further and stay flat to the north, this would continue to press and allow negative tilt on our S/S wave. I didn’t see that. In fact, before I looked at the surface, I thought it would have been even more nw. So I’m taking the NAM with a grain of salt. I really have no faith in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We’re not in the dreaded gray. Celebration. Ellinwood is smart AF and a really good person overall IME but God damn I usually hate the mf'er when his maps get hoisted... 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ellinwood is smart AF and a really good person overall IME but God damn I usually hate the mf'er when his maps get hoisted This storm seems primed to bring the HoCo-MoCo deathband out of retirement. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Here come the Debbie downers . You're not wrong but no matter what you're still 2 level downs below a deb 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Ellinwood is smart AF and a really good person overall IME but God damn I usually hate the mf'er when his maps get hoisted Same. Same. He becomes the people in first class when i board a plane and walk past them with dagger eyes. But this time, he pulled through! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: This storm seems primed to being the HoCo-MoCo deathband out of retirement. I'm at the stage in life in general to just let chips fall and be happy with whatever except a total bust but being full disclosure honest... I'm sick and f'n tired of every fookin storm starting off with a deep and soft mud base that eats snow from below. Sun and cold angle problems above and mud Pacman problems below make my snow weenie very flaccid. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm at the stage in life in general to just let chips fall and be happy with whatever except a total bust but being full disclosure honest... I'm sick and f'n tired of every fookin storm starting off with a deep and soft mud base that eats snow from below. Sun and cold angle problems above and mud Pacman problems below make my snow weenie very flaccid. We rarely and by rarely I mean never get concrete grass and a pile of cold smoke that’s like confectionery sugar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Mid-Atlantic weenies trying to land this one today. 2 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DonnieB Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Congrats to the central VA folks...NAM's and now ICON focusing on that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This storm seems primed to being the HoCo-MoCo deathband out of retirement. I was on the water today, ocean is not that cold. Going to fun seeing it set up on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, H2O said: We rarely and by rarely I mean never get concrete grass and a pile of cold smoke that’s like confectionery sugar Remember the early 80s? Couldn't buy a big storm and when accum snow hit, sledding was over noon unless you liked mud wrestling. Some do. Not me. I'm a purist. And I clearly live in the wrong F'n place for that. 2013-14 will prob remain my favorite winter of the 21st century until I'm creamated 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm at the stage in life in general to just let chips fall and be happy with whatever except a total bust but being full disclosure honest... I'm sick and f'n tired of every fookin storm starting off with a deep and soft mud base that eats snow from below. Sun and cold angle problems above and mud Pacman problems below make my snow weenie very flaccid. I have to agree with you about letting the chips fall. Coming from someone who moved from Baltimore to a more climo favored area like Westminster, and lived there for three years, I can honestly say I was never able to enjoy the fruits of my labor. Last winter it benefited me slightly to live there, But it was never anything drastic. There was the storm last year where Westminster got about 7 inches and Thurmont/Carroll Valley got 16 to 18. The cities had 3-4, but it was never the coastal runner that brought 4-6&mix in Baltimore and 12-15 in the NW burbs. Well here I am now living in Carroll Valley as of October, waiting to see if I can maximize another decent climo location. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I went from no snow to a possibility of something broomable in 12 hours. It’s a big win when looking back at the last few craptastic winters. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: Remember the early 80s? Couldn't buy a big storm and when accum snow hit, sledding was over noon unless you liked mud wrestling. Some do. Not me. I'm a purist. And I clearly live in the wrong F'n place for that. 2013-14 will prob remain my favorite winter of the 21st century until I'm creamated The only time you can remember a cold cold snow was in the mid 80s where it was concrete and got a 3” clipper and it was the best for sledding on those plastic ones Prior to that I’m back in the 70s with the metal sleds with runners ruining my moms candles and needing hard pack to go 50mph down a hill 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, DonnieB said: Congrats to the central VA folks...NAM's and now ICON focusing on that area. Oh damn I didn't realize NAM was THAT bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 lol the nam. Stop looking at it 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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