IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, peribonca said: Not too worried yet but 6z GFS also was South Gooooood 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I think the NAMs shifted south Given what it did yesterday I’m not sure how much it can be trusted. But you will make some panic now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Geez what a disaster 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oof! Sharp cut off. Gonna bet Baltimore just misses warning level accumulation again...lol (unless we get another bump) Yes. The cutoff is brutal. Especially for my area (Winchester). Literally 10 miles could be 4 inches or nothing. I would expect the precip shield to actually be a bit larger. Weenie logic only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NAM is so bad. But then you have the FV3 that's even better. NAM sucks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Both NAMs picking up on todays souther trend. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The ARW ensemble is what drug the NAM away looking at the SREF but the NMM went up some over 16 for bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Peeps worrying about the NAM must be new here… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Both NAMs picking up on todays souther trend. Weird that the Euro doesn't know anything about this souther trend you're speaking of. We'll have to see if the RGEM or ICON do here shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: What is FV3? The NAM’s replacement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Both NAMs picking up on todays souther trend. What south trend? There is no south trend. The NAMs went a bit south. No other guidance is doing that. Other guidance continues to shift north. Could it change? Sure. But I'm confused how there is a south trend right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, snowfan said: Both NAMs picking up on todays souther trend. since when do these things trend south moments before kickoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: What is FV3? The NAM’s replacement? FV3 has been chosen as the dynamical core for the Next Generation Global Prediction System project (NGGPS), designed to upgrade the current operational Global Forecast System (GFS) to run as a unified, fully-coupled system in NOAA’s Environmental Modeling System infrastructure. FV3 was successfully implemented within the GFS, and the FV3-based GFSv15 became operational on 12 June 2019. Other applications, such as regional high-resolution forecasting and coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling for seasonal prediction, are planned for later implementation at NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Nam’s higher resolution could be keying in on the heavier band and chopping off the expanse of the lighter precip. I’d be concerned about temps the most further south. We’re relying on a helluva temp drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 gm 23 3 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The banding on the FV3 makes sense. I’ll buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Ellinwood said: gm Notice how @Ellinwood maps don’t say 1st preliminary conditional hypothetical first guess? 4 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: gm Welcome back. We have missed you. Your maps are generally the best around here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Notice how @Ellinwood maps don’t say 1st preliminary conditional hypothetical first guess? He’s among the best. Now it’s real. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: gm Bullish! Nice! My skeptimeter is tingling with accum problems. My yard could see nearly 1" qpf but my weenie brain can't get past 4" of potatoes with mud underneath. I'll hug your map and stfu now 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 When @Ellinwood puts out a map, lock it up lock it in! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: gm We’re not in the dreaded gray. Celebration. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 One would have to think though that this couldn't trend N/W all the way to gametime. Models like HRRR at its latest run have pushed back S/E a bit. What I've been keying on all along for trend watching is the h5 presentation. A lot better than it was, but even on the 6z GFS you could see a little more press & influence from the presence of the N/S. If that area were to separate further and stay flat to the north, this would continue to press and allow negative tilt on our S/S wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We’re not in the dreaded gray. Celebration. He wanted to but his kids used up all the gray crayons coloring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the NW periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends.... Eta: another perspective is parrs/climo favored areas are still dancing in the subsidence zone... how often does that verify? It can happen. I only got 2.5” from the Jan 2019 storm. There was a storm in Jan 1987 that gave DC a foot and fringed up here. Jan 2010 also was like that. The orographic banding and super high ratios you described is why there will typically be that “deathband” up here. The added terrain lift along with colder temps typically causes better snow growth conditions here. I often have 20-1 ratios. But those factors won’t happen if we’re in the subsidence zone and that can happen if the storm track is far enough south. Right now the track is iffy if there will be enough mid level moisture transport into this area. One more tick north like last night and we probably would see the typical orographic effects up here but there needs to be good enough moisture to take advantage of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: since when do these things trend south moments before kickoff? In the hearts of men Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: since when do these things trend south moments before kickoff? Today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Today Yeah usually we just get the opposite of what we need at gametime these past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Here come the Debbie downers . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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