CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the NW periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends.... You're right in general, but not sure this is one is going to be able to climb the coast enough to place it in the usual spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: You're right in general, but not sure this is one is going to be able to climb the coast enough to place it in the usual spot. I tend to agree, but take a look at the cross section plot in my post from an hour ago. Clearly shows 2 areas with max omega in the DGZ. One north of DC in the colder air, one south with the frontogen max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: You're right in general, but not sure this is one is going to be able to climb the coast enough to place it in the usual spot. You know I agree with you but it always finds a way.... maybe the vigor of the upper low on the current track "forces the band" to where it should be... idk man... somehow someway... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 It's ok, WeatherBug is predicting 4-8" now. It's locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You know I agree with you but it always finds a way.... maybe the vigor of the upper low on the current track "forces the band" to where it should be... idk man... somehow someway... I think those that tend to panic in the group might read this as it screws the SE when clearly there's enough buffer that it's highly unlikely that just because the usual jackpot areas get in on the fun this time it doesn't appear to be to the detriment of our SE enemies I mean friends 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I tend to agree, but take a look at the cross section plot in my post from an hour ago. Clearly shows 2 areas with max omega in the DGZ. One north of DC in the colder air, one south with the frontogen max. I did see that. The enhancement due to terrain is a thing. And Mount PSU will have high ratio snow start to finish, so he is good for at least a half foot of fluff even if on the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yes do tell, sir...(although I'm not sure whether Baltimore is truly a NW periphery, lol) I'm not talking any kind of shift in the track of the upper low. Just that there's always "THE BAND" in the cold side of storms like this on the northern edge of the precip shield and NW of the band usually gets mad AF with light rates and "pulsey" precip. Right now the climo favored zones are dangerously close to the subsidence zone. It happens sometimes. Like in the 2013-15 stretch but far more often than not... I'm not talking about the corridor like our houses. We're in very good spot considering crappy temps and rates usually try to screw the pooch. I'm not expecting a jack but in this particular case... I like where my yard is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I did see that. The enhancement due to terrain is a thing. And Mount PSU will have high ratio snow start to finish, so he is good for at least a half foot of fluff even if on the northern edge. I’m listening… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, North Balti Zen said: I’m listening… This should be fun for you in your new and improved snow climo locale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: This should be fun for you in your new and improved snow climo locale. Say!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 So...wonder what they'll do with Advisory vs Warning imy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I think that was one of two or three times in my brief 31 years that we actually watched rain change to snow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: So...wonder what they'll do with Advisory vs Warning imy? For the non-warned areas, They will wait for the 12z runs and either go advisory or warning after getting one last round of data… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Seems smart and is about how the mid Atlantic will cool before the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 55 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I think those that tend to panic in the group might read this as it screws the SE when clearly there's enough buffer that it's highly unlikely that just because the usual jackpot areas get in on the fun this time it doesn't appear to be to the detriment of our SE enemies I mean friends As usual, we all have our own problems. SE has the energy and precip but nasogood temps. It will snow at 35 no prob but the stickage is far from efficient. Corridor has a little of both depending on where you live. NW crew has the rates problem but notsomuch the temp problems. When you put this all together... it looks very familiar... Rug pull or that kind of stuff was def not my intent. If you live in the SE zones of the snow part of this storm, the most unlikely outcome is 10:1 snowfall imho Eta: just to be very clear... lol...SE zones are in a great spot for intense snowfall but that doesn't = intense accumulations. There can't be big lulls. Especially after sunrise. If the hot and heavies pile up by dawn it would help a lot there. My yard has the typical problem... wasted front side precip. I've seen plenty of storms waste .3 qpf to SnowTV. Lulls and weak spots in the shield can destroy my hopes and dreams. If the SE crew jacks its prob because the NW side underperformed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 PBS's update on WB: My update FOR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ...this is why we never say never...and yes, "beware the caboose" Thermal boundary/baroclinicity looks to only reach southern Virginia to just off the Long Island coast late today and this evening...strong shortwave now over E TX will eject ENE and cause the first big snow of 2022 east of the Mississippi River... Major winter storm appears highly likely beginning in the Smoky Mountains, then spreading into SW and central Virginia, and southern Maryland, as well as the central Delmarva Peninsula beginning in NC/TN this evening, then after midnight further northeast in the central and southern Mid-Atlantic States. This situation is ever-changing, and there's no evidence this event climbs another 75 miles north, as the thermal boundary looks pinned in VA/NC, then south of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast. However, adjustments will be made by NWS et al today, and I would not be surprised if Winter Storm Watches were expanded northward in Virginia and Maryland, as well as Delaware and New Jersey (maybe far SE PA?) after the 12Z model package suite. A winter storm of the moderate/heavy category is likely along a swath just north of the major area (by major, I'm talking 12"+) Right now, the immediate Washington area (Fairfax/Prince William/Prince Georges/Montgomery) look to be on the northern edge of the heavy snow, amounts in excess of 6" look likely (highest on non-paved surfaces), especially from southern Montgomery County, southward. 6"+ snow looks likely over southern New Jersey. This is subject to some adjustment. Amounts of at least 4"-6" may occur from extreme SE PA through central NJ to southern/eastern LI. I'll give my opinions after the full 12Z suite, but suffice to say, this looks to be the largest snowstorm for some areas of southern Maryland and the Northern Neck (the area just south of the Tidal Potomac River, but north of the James River), in Virginia. Rich precipitable water values will linger over the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic today, then the shortwave (now initiating precipitation in east TX) will move ENE and ignite heavy lift/upward motion over central Tennessee, northern 'Bama, and into N Georgia mountains...possibly into northern suburbs of Atlanta. From there, the thermal boundary will serve as a focus for a 1.5"+ QPF event for the lower Mid-Atlantic Region. Snow rates of 1" to possibly 2"/hour may occur in banding Monday morning over portions of Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, especially from the foothills of the Blue Ridge to the coast. Short range modeling take the 850 mb low-pressure from around ATL to the coastal VA/NC border by midday Monday, 1/3/22. General synoptic meteorology rule is the heaviest snow is around 150 miles NW of that low. No doubt, that looks to work out in this scenario, and I still think there's a very sharp cut-off. The Northeast immediate south coastal areas are now in the equation, as enhancement off the warm Atlantic waters will tend to overcome dry, cold advection n the mid and low levels out of the North. However, the area from LI to central Jersey, to PHL metro, to NE MD, is a very tough call on QPF. That's going to depend on a) where the thermal boundary sets up tonight, and b) how easily the dry, cold air is overcome along that area by the intense lift on the northern edge of the precipitation shield. There may be places 50 miles north of a 4" snow that see not a flake. Temperatures? P-type? While it's bloody warm now (850 mb temps. +12C to +15C from central VA to GA)...the cold air now stretching from NE OH to SE MO will be dragged southward later today and especially tonight, at all levels, as the low-center intensifies over N Georgia. I expect rain to spread into N VA, the Washington area, and Lower Southern Maryland within a couple hours of midnight, but transition to IP, then S/S+ from north to south. Freezing rain is falling in parts of western Louisiana and east Texas this morning after incredible warmth and humidity...that just ended overnight. Things can change on a dime. @tornadoTom and @ty454 and @jmshank it's hard to see how this is not a heavy snowstorm for you all. Intense precipitation rates during Monday morning's rush hour (the day after the long holiday period) look to cause problems. While ground temperatures are very warm, the falling temperatures and heavy snow should overwhelm roadways by dawn, or soon after, in most places. Wind 15-25 mph (but 25-35 mph over the coastal areas, into central VA/southern VA and southern Maryland) will help to cause cooling of road surfaces and force snow to adhere. Also, this looks like a pasting with power outages likely and tree damage, as temperatures will start above freezing, then fall to the 28F-31F range in most areas east of the mountains. I would like to wait another 5-7 hours for numbers and swaths, but at this time, it appears HIGHLY LIKELY, amounts in excess of 12" will occur in the bullseye, somewhere in Virginia and Maryland...with 6"+ amounts likely over the Smoky Mountains and in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, down into SW VA and the New River Valley area. Higher snow amounts are expected in the mountains of Virginia and southern/southeastern West Virginia, as well as in the Smokey Mountains of TN and NC. One last point: as surface high pressure builds in Monday Night over eastern Maryland and central Virginia/southern Virginia, radiational cooling is expected to result in air temperatures dropping into the teens over the heavy snow cover. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not talking any kind of shift in the track of the upper low. Just that there's always "THE BAND" in the cold side of storms like this on the northern edge of the precip shield and NW of the band usually gets mad AF with light rates and "pulsey" precip. Right now the climo favored zones are dangerously close to the subsidence zone. It happens sometimes. Like in the 2013-15 stretch but far more often than not... I'm not talking about the corridor like our houses. We're in very good spot considering crappy temps and rates usually try to screw the pooch. I'm not expecting a jack but in this particular case... I like where my yard is. I'm sitting here on Parrs Ridge packing my bags. Headed down to AA county to stay with my parents. I told my girlfriend I'm crazy when it comes to snow. Now she's learning the extent of it lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Radar looks meh. Next 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: Radar looks meh. Next I’m surprised @Jihas not already complained about seeing the back edge in radar. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 And all I’ll say about the death band is this: It will snow the best where it usually does. Without fail. Call it ortho lift, call it frontgen, call it same ol shit what will matter most is the cold push. Where that sets and sits will make this a boom or bust. That’ cold push is what will wring out the juice. What screws the SE areas is always the cold bleed. Cold air loves to sit above 300ft and take it’s sweet time to filter down to the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 HRRR has not stopped moving NW since 00z Last night. NAM likely to move more 12z HRRR is gonna be a smacking 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 My local forecast went from 40% snow tonight to 20% chance of rain/snow. Now, NWS, I realize I’m not in the best spot, but do you really think lessening the snowfall chance was the way to go? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Looks like a slight disagreement between CTP and LWX on the northern edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I’m surprised @Jihas not already complained about seeing the back edge in radar. He’s already looking at the late week snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 hours ago, Weather Will said: Like my Catholic Church at Christmas… where is everyone the rest of the year? Don't forget Easter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Jan 2010 did not stop moving nw on models until it started snowing. If it keeps moving nw, it won’t be a shock. Of course that commentary is laced with what I want to see so you may just have to disregard 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Happy for you all south of me! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 HRRR is going to make everyone happy. Cheers to the 12z suites coming 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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