aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: What's the latest MJO forecast? It might warm up next week. Man....that's torqued up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, IronTy said: It can really stop moving north now thank you. I bet the mean/consensus of today's 12z runs will be about where it ends up. The storm is forming now and the models are "seeing" the diabetic energy release. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: What's the latest MJO forecast? It might warm up next week. EPS mid month was quite tasty at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I bet the mean/consensus of today's 12z runs will be about where it ends up. The storm is forming now and the models are "seeing" the diabetic energy release. I love me a good sugar release 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: ^I should get the bullseye, right? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I bet the mean/consensus of today's 12z runs will be about where it ends up. The storm is forming now and the models are "seeing" the diabetic energy release. I'm gonna have a diabetic energy release if I end up getting fringed to the south. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, IronTy said: It can really stop moving north now thank you. What are you concerned about? I mean, dude look at this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: What are you concerned about? I mean, dude look at this. Gosh that’s beautiful. Hard to believe how quickly this materialized. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 ++WDI 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the NW periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends.... Eta: another perspective is parrs/climo favored areas are still dancing in the subsidence zone... how often does that verify? 9 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: What are you concerned about? I mean, dude look at this. Yeah a southern fringe ain't gonna be an issue...lol Now I'm a tad picky about a northern "fringe", if anything (heh, I like how the is line just over Baltimore, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the new periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends.... Go on? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: What are you concerned about? I mean, dude look at this. Well for starters yesterday the bullseye was down in Newport news. Now it's almost to DC. Eta, yeah I get the storm isn't moving north but mostly all I care about is snow imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the NW periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends.... As a newly moved to monkton person, do go on… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: ++WDI So that comes a few days after... On 12/26/2021 at 9:49 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Hey yo!! THE Uccellini cited the WDI (we're due index)...I feel validated, lol It is herby canon! Heh, would be funny if his prediction turns out to be correct, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the NW periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends.... Eta: another perspective is parrs/climo favored areas are still dancing in the subsidence zone... how often does that verify? Yes do tell, sir...(although I'm not sure whether Baltimore is truly a NW periphery, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Now that h5 is closed and/or aggressive on all models, time to have fun with pin the tail on the almost certain frontogen band on the NW periphery. Models right now have it SE of the fall line. Does that ever happen with h5 passes like this? Climo has been showing up in the model trends.... You're right in general, but not sure this is one is going to be able to climb the coast enough to place it in the usual spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: You're right in general, but not sure this is one is going to be able to climb the coast enough to place it in the usual spot. I tend to agree, but take a look at the cross section plot in my post from an hour ago. Clearly shows 2 areas with max omega in the DGZ. One north of DC in the colder air, one south with the frontogen max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: You're right in general, but not sure this is one is going to be able to climb the coast enough to place it in the usual spot. You know I agree with you but it always finds a way.... maybe the vigor of the upper low on the current track "forces the band" to where it should be... idk man... somehow someway... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 It's ok, WeatherBug is predicting 4-8" now. It's locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You know I agree with you but it always finds a way.... maybe the vigor of the upper low on the current track "forces the band" to where it should be... idk man... somehow someway... I think those that tend to panic in the group might read this as it screws the SE when clearly there's enough buffer that it's highly unlikely that just because the usual jackpot areas get in on the fun this time it doesn't appear to be to the detriment of our SE enemies I mean friends 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I tend to agree, but take a look at the cross section plot in my post from an hour ago. Clearly shows 2 areas with max omega in the DGZ. One north of DC in the colder air, one south with the frontogen max. I did see that. The enhancement due to terrain is a thing. And Mount PSU will have high ratio snow start to finish, so he is good for at least a half foot of fluff even if on the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yes do tell, sir...(although I'm not sure whether Baltimore is truly a NW periphery, lol) I'm not talking any kind of shift in the track of the upper low. Just that there's always "THE BAND" in the cold side of storms like this on the northern edge of the precip shield and NW of the band usually gets mad AF with light rates and "pulsey" precip. Right now the climo favored zones are dangerously close to the subsidence zone. It happens sometimes. Like in the 2013-15 stretch but far more often than not... I'm not talking about the corridor like our houses. We're in very good spot considering crappy temps and rates usually try to screw the pooch. I'm not expecting a jack but in this particular case... I like where my yard is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I did see that. The enhancement due to terrain is a thing. And Mount PSU will have high ratio snow start to finish, so he is good for at least a half foot of fluff even if on the northern edge. I’m listening… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, North Balti Zen said: I’m listening… This should be fun for you in your new and improved snow climo locale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: This should be fun for you in your new and improved snow climo locale. Say!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 So...wonder what they'll do with Advisory vs Warning imy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I think that was one of two or three times in my brief 31 years that we actually watched rain change to snow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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