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January 3 CAPE Storm


WxUSAF
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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

ICON with a bump. Models today have been consistent with the ns starting to outrun the ss.

That’s the reason we’ve been this latest trend. Not just a N/w trend in the shield or precip, more so a change in the Synoptics/h5 that’s driving the vort & associated low. 

Also think that’s why we’ve seen the precip orientations take on a different angle as we’ve discussed. 

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Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Watch the 18z GFS after sticking with its solution just turn into the NAM after the other models start to come to its solution.

That would ruin my night pretty quick. I don't have high expectations, but I'd at least like to see first flakes for the season. Is it a lot to ask? Probably. 

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1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

Like the NAM GFS is showing signs in soundings that we might have to contend w Sleet if we get precip up here 

I'd take a mix with sleet over what I thought this morning... a few wet flakes that might accumulate on car tops for about 15 minutes, in the best case :lol:

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