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January 3 CAPE Storm


WxUSAF
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31 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Yeah definitely understand the position they are in, they don't want another March 2013. I would not want to be a TV meteorologist right now :mellow:

I'm not sure the intricacies (and uncertainties) of meteorology will ever be fully appreciated by the public--mainly because most folks can't see how much chaos there is in predicting weather! (But perhaps that's is a conversation for another thread though, lol)

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3 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Euro doesn't quite have what the GFS did, but these totals seem more sensical to me. GFS really does score a coup it seems. 

GFS has more than every other model. I really think this will probably be a 6-10" event with not many 10+ totals.

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Here's a quick visual comparing the 0z Euro to the 0z EPS. It's hard to tell since it's overlayed on top of the EPS, but the big L represents the operational. A fair bit of lps NW of the mean, and of course there's the cluster well offshore, but that scenario seems to be dwindling with every model cycle. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-mslp_with_low_locs-1232800.thumb.png.237fa6248302267a35e58d310a67d633.png

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