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January 3 CAPE Storm


WxUSAF
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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I will use the GFS as an example, as it appears to be kicking ass here. Back to the basics. The set up looks largely the same as when I first started posting about this window 5-6 days ago, and it is a favorable one. Cold air with sprawling HP to the west and north (note the absence of the dreaded GL low), low pressure off of the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure over Greenland. H5 is also reflective of the favorable look for snow in the MA. One flaw is the anomalous warmth we have in place just ahead of this potential event- but the cold push is legit, and as long as the shortwave is sharp and with a favorable pass to the south, and with all the features mentioned above in the 'right places' the solution the models seem to be converging on is reasonable. The expansion of the precip shield further NW into the colder air is not reflective of any significant shift in the low track, but rather a sharper shortwave and better timing. Overall a pretty classic look, and throw in that the -NAO is breaking down- not to say that this is going to be a KU type event. 

1641211200-NJcpiOcg5Ck.png

Cape, sort of an IMBY question for those in Baltimore and north...Is there any synoptic mechanism that might either expand the heavier precip north or even bring the low pressure more north?  If so, what would a novice map reader look for.

Thanks.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

RGEM is a solid hit for the area.  Pivotal precip maps shows sleet/mixing into DC (and south of there) but the column (per the sounding) is below freezing.  4” into DC, 1” into Baltimore on the Kuchera map.

Can you post with comparison to earlier?

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

RGEM is a solid hit for the area.  Pivotal precip maps shows sleet/mixing into DC (and south of there) but the column (per the sounding) is below freezing.  4” into DC, 1” into Baltimore on the Kuchera map.

Pretty soon we’re going to be sweating the rain/snow line.  

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NWS discussion

The final wave of low pressure with this long-stalled frontal
boundary is now trending further north and west in latest
guidance. Some solutions now show a rather significant snowfall
especially from DC on south and east for late Sunday night into
Monday. This is rather concerning and latest guidance will be
closely reviewed overnight for possible advisory, or even watch,
issuance, if necessary. For now, have only trended POPs and
snowfall further north, with likely pops into DC metro and a
light accumulation.
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8 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

NWS discussion

The final wave of low pressure with this long-stalled frontal
boundary is now trending further north and west in latest
guidance. Some solutions now show a rather significant snowfall
especially from DC on south and east for late Sunday night into
Monday. This is rather concerning and latest guidance will be
closely reviewed overnight for possible advisory, or even watch,
issuance, if necessary. For now, have only trended POPs and
snowfall further north, with likely pops into DC metro and a
light accumulation.

It's not rather concerning to me.

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