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January 3 CAPE Storm


WxUSAF
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26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I wanna hear someone defend this model.

Well it actually looked quite similar between the two time stamps, with the exception of the glaringly obvious snow shield.  I would love to know the details of what happened in the math of the model.

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I will use the GFS as an example, as it appears to be kicking ass here. Back to the basics. The set up looks largely the same as when I first started posting about this window, and it is a favorable one. Cold air with sprawling HP to the west and north (note the absence of the dreaded GL low), low pressure off of the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure over Greenland. H5 is also reflective of the favorable look for snow in the MA. One flaw is the anomalous warmth we have in place just ahead of this potential event- but the cold push is legit, and as long as the shortwave is sharp and with a favorable pass to the south, and with all the features mentioned above in the 'right places' the solution the models seem to be converging on is reasonable. The expansion of the precip shield further NW into the colder air is not reflective of any significant shift in the low track, but rather a sharper shortwave and better timing. Overall a pretty classic look, and throw in that the -NAO is breaking down- not to say that this is going to be a KU type event. 

1641211200-NJcpiOcg5Ck.png

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