Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, peribonca said: So what are people thinking in terms of wasted precipitation? Do we have white rain for a few hours 1am-3am then start sticking? Nowcast for that stuff. Need the wall of yellows to roll right overhead with no light green lulls or worse... holes... If the waa is juicy, we avoid relying on a 6 hour windowor less of "rates" to cover everything. The best accum snow will obviously be during the CCB portion. If your ground is still mostly brown by that time, big snows become hard to impossible. If there's 2-4" of gloppy potatoes on the ground when the CCB sets up... oh boy.... hehe The tricky part is nobody can honestly say they know how the front side breaks and until that's figured out, the cold side amounts are nothing more than wild guesses 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, WxMan1 said: I think the cooling due to conduction, i.e. with cold rain at the onset, does a great deal pretty quickly. We often see road surface temps fall into the 30s pretty quickly. But you're absolutely correct -- that first layer would be slush, and overall, the depth of snow on the roads in this setup would be less than that over non-paved surfaces. Would be a mess to drive on. Like you all have said, it's a "rates" storm. We absolutely need that or it's essentially a non-event. Much like November 11th 1987. When it happens, it's a think of beauty. A low probability event to be sure, but we've got the setup going for us, as well as a consensus among most models now within 24 hrs of the event. Mind blown, I've never thought of conduction which is pretty embarrassing as an engineer. A cold rain right at 33F or somewhere close should take all the heat out of the soil. Then it's just losses due to snow hitting wet ground, not necessarily warm ground though. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The early precipitation falling overnight helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The early precipitation falling overnight helps. Also a good point. At this point the sun angle is so high and rising we should expect it to melt anything short of steel. Eta, that's a joke BTW. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Who is doing pbp for the euro when it starts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Winter Weather Advisory just issued - 2-4 inches. Very conservative??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Lol dc metro under weather advisory. Charles county s and e upgraded to warning. Ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Who is doing pbp for the euro when it starts? Everyone who knows how. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just got a WAA for Fairfax for 2-4”. It seems to be too conservative based on the latest information. Is that because they depend on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Another cool way to watch the trend... look at the last few HRRR runs. Check out the cold pressing more and more and the distance between the yellows and the freezing line shrinking in the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Lol dc metro under weather advisory. Charles county s and e upgraded to warning. Ok DC itself could end up with a wide range of outcomes based on tiny distances. You're in the best general area of DC so that's good. Foggy bottom or navy yard weenies may not be stoked bros after the storm is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Just got a WAA for Fairfax for 2-4”. It seems to be too conservative based on the latest information. Is that because they depend on the NAM? Makes more sense for them to be conservative here and upgrade this evening if the trend holds/continues rather than go all in now and have it bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lol dc metro under weather advisory. Charles county s and e upgraded to warning. Ok I'd wait for Sue Palka to weigh in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Winter storm warning just hoisted! Was 3-5" but is now 5-7". Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Just got a WAA for Fairfax for 2-4”. It seems to be too conservative based on the latest information. Is that because they depend on the NAM? It's conservative, but not an unfair play if you're willing to upgrade to warnings in 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Stealing this from my region, thanks Tony, but this is the model that will be replacing the NAM soon. Let's see how it does... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: DC itself could end up with a wide range of outcomes based on tiny distances. You're in the best general area of DC so that's good. Foggy bottom or navy yard weenies may not be stoked bros after the storm is done. I think its the usual LWX SOP...upgrade as you go along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I'd wait for Sue Palka to weigh in Why would you do that when Gwen Tolbert is right there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Thermals going to hell really fast down here. I'll take some frontogenesis however. What a dope storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Stealing this from my region, thanks Tony, but this is the model that will be replacing the NAM soon. Let's see how it does... Sort of. Yes, the NAM (and RAP/HRRR and Hi-Res Windows) will be subsumed by a hi-res, hourly FV3 ensemble (called the RRFS), but the configuration of that hi-res FV3 is not what the configuration of the RRFS members will be (different physics, different initialization....). Think of this run that you showed as sort of a hi-res GFS for now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Lol dc metro under weather advisory. Charles county s and e upgraded to warning. Ok Do I still get snow even though I’m not under any advisory? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, high risk said: Sort of. Yes, the NAM (and RAP/HRRR and Hi-Res Windows) will be subsumed by a hi-res, hourly FV3 ensemble (called the RRFS), but the configuration of that hi-res FV3 is not what the configuration of the RRFS members will be (different physics, different initialization....). Think of this run that you showed as sort of a hi-res GFS for now. What's the plan for the 3k NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NWS is pretty much using the NAM. Okay, hope that works out. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Hey, guys. I don't want to cause a panic but the sun is out and its 62F right now. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The WV loop is a thing of beauty. The flow is really backing in the TN valley. Can you elaborate here. This is an aspect I don’t understand all that well. Thanks in advance to any who reply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Do I still get snow even though I’m not under any advisory? No. That’s mathematically impossible. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Warn ground will not be an issue on Jan 2. I don’t care how warm it’s been for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Do I still get snow even though I’m not under any advisory? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Good God it's hot outside. I mean like hot for real. I know snow can stick at 36 no prob. Will 56 be a problem tho? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Do I still get snow even though I’m not under any advisory? The storm knows the watches and warning boundaries. Just like they know when a thread is created 5 days before it arrives and using that info to jinx us. 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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